mb018538
-
Posts
7,447 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
11
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by mb018538
-
-
An absolute grey fest most of the day here. Managed to get to 22c, but the lack of sun after so much in recent weeks is really a bummer.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
It's looking like there's a real lack of 'oomph' from day 5-10....the low over the UK doesn't go anywhere, and just fills in situ to leave this mess:
The ECM day 10-15 cluster is hardly inspiring either, it's still there!
-
1
-
-
A comparison between the latest two of these hovmoller charts shows what others have been saying - a delay to a potential return to something more settled in July. What previously looked like end of the first week for a change is now pushed out to mid month. Shame.-
3
-
-
Models have picked up this feature on Thursday now - weather front developing a wave and potentially dumping a fair amount of rain somewhere across the SE. Last few days it’s looked dry in the SE, but it now appears this won’t be the case….one to keep an eye on.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, danm said:
Yep we already got up to 21c before midday, should comfortably get up to about 23c today.
Still a very nice summers day here too. 22c, sunshine and clouds, and a fresh breeze. Can't really moan at that.
-
2
-
-
ECM again keeping low pressure mainly located between Iceland and Scotland. Finer details of where this ends up will of course determine where the heaviest rain falls - suffice to say the NW is going to get a soaking though.
-
2
-
-
15 minutes ago, S Bragg said:
It feels so different outside now, much cooler and fresher thankfully. There's even a decent breeze blowing so it'll help blow that fresher air through the house. I hope the humidity stays away now, at least for a while.
Tuesday afternoon will be humid, high teens instead though.
-
UKMO brings the low a lot closer than the other output at day 7. Until then, better temps and drier as you head S/E.
-
14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Yep. Average is now considered abysmal.
Most people just haven’t bothered to look at the actual forecast. I’ve been posting for days that for many people it’s not going to be that bad. They just see summer low pressure and think 2012 every time.
-
1
-
-
Equal hottest day of the year…
-
1
-
-
UKV spot on again today with advertised maxes of 31-32c, which is exactly what we’ve got. Dunno where Arpege was pulling 34/35c from the last few days….too much
I reckon!
-
1
-
-
30c with hot sunshine…enjoying the last of the summery weather before low pressure take a hold next week
-
1
-
-
Looks pretty wet in the north and west….down towards the south and east it may not even be that wet. Unsettled, but it doesn’t look like we’re going full 2012 for now. Depends how long it sticks around for.
-
ECM isn’t as much of an outlier as you’d have thought, but there’s still quite a wide spread in pressure by day 8, which highlights the uncertainty!
-
1
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, slater said:
where has this all this come from all of a sudden..? we have been stuck in the same pattern for months, and the 3 month summer forecast has not suggested this outcome at all?
That’s the thing - it’s a 3 month forecast. It doesn’t mean that every day will be blue skies and sunshine, it’s an overall picture….which can by its nature include brief unsettled spells. If 75% of summer was settled and 25% was unsettled then that forecast would still be right.
-
3
-
1
-
-
ECM will be an outlier again sadly, much as I’d love for it to be on the money.
-
As suspected…well outside the ensemble mean and an outlier. Oh well, unsettled interlude it is!
-
1
-
-
-
36 minutes ago, Downburst said:
I take it green is no anomaly? or Climate norm. So easy, as I do all the time, to get sucked into seeing what you want to see in an anomaly chart. But these are great and the shading shows the spread too. So much data out there. Totally spoiled.
Correct. The more intense the reds or blues are, the bigger the positive or negative anomaly. They are great charts as you can see the movement East and west of lows and highs.
-
1
-
-
Lovely day here again after a slow start. Sunny spells and sunny 27c.
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
Extended ECM output last night still shows it to not be a long lived unsettled phase:
Once the first week of July is out, it should start to improve if these are to be believed...-
9
-
1
-
Getting a bit tired of the lack of consistency!
ECM day 10….00z no Greenland high….12z big Greenland high
-
2
-
-
Another pretty warm one here today at 27c....threatening clouds around and some big cells have fired off to the east, but dodged them so far.
-
10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
The ECM mean continues to be less progressive than the op in pulling the line of the jet so far south. I think the end of next week is still in the balance for southern areas, although unlikely to remain hot. Northern areas, though, look odds on to become a little unsettled at times after this Saturday. Next weekend onwards doesn't look pretty for anyone.
Mean is much less aggressive with the low, and is centred further north too. ECM ens show the op to be another big unsettled outlier - though the trend is still much more unsettled.
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not looking great is it. The dreaded northern block is inflating and shows no signs of breaking down at the moment, which always spells trouble for us. Just have to sit tight and hope it flushes out soon. If not then it’s a mega forecast bust.