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mb018538
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Posts posted by mb018538
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Looks a bit messy on the 00z runs with lower heights in and around the UK next week taking their time to clear. While not a full on low pressure fest, the chance of showers or longer spells of rain in many areas, especially the north and west. Ireland gets slammed on the ECM run, very little rain in the SE.
ECM starting to settle down at the end, but with building Greenland heights too.
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AO falling negative could have implications, though much to be decided on that front. Extended EPS keeping it settled on latest forecasts. -
20 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Certainly changed afoot in our Synoptics. Looks as though we are going to be heading towards an unsettled phase although the models are struggling with the pattern change. Still warm though picticularly the further east you go , but I fear the weather gods are going to reward us with a little too much rain….
Honestly don’t think there’s too much concern at the moment. Latest NOAA update today has low pressure held out west with high pressure to our east. Tends to favour it staying warm and dry on the whole - western areas always at more risk of frontal incursions.
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4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
I think the 32c may be from France not the UK?
Yep it’s from that frame - so is France in that shot.
ECM 240….revenge for the east
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1 hour ago, Frostillicus said:
Still boiling hot from the sun though. Like I said, there is no "good" heat.
Low 20s should be enough for anyone. Our homes aren't built for the likes of this.
Blimey, it’s 28 degrees not 50! Each to their own though.
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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:
Beautiful satellite pic of the UK today, gorgeous clear skies allowing summer warmth but interestingly some strong thunderstorms over Ireland, Scotland and baby ones in Cornwall. No foul murk or Atlantic vileness to be seen.
Different story here, overcast and showery and a very disappointing 16°C
Good....get that North Sea warmed up! Turn off the clag machine please, we had enough of that a couple of weeks back.
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5 minutes ago, Frostillicus said:
It's not, but it's not much better. Being shielded by the Pennines means we get highest day time temps and highest overnight temps.
Give me a north westerly or better yet, a northerly any day. Nothing good comes from air sucked out of Europe.
The brief time the sun went in felt like a massive temp drop lol. Continental air is just foul.
Humidity is 30-35% today. Air is very dry, not soupy at all!
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29 minutes ago, danm said:
Wouldn’t really call this a “west is best” day. 28c’s and 29c’s are being recorded widely across the UK. As the wind is from a more easterly direction there are a couple of spots that are known to benefit from the foehn effect that could top the charts, e.g Porthmadog which can on occasion record temperatures far in excess of areas just down the road due to local topography.
Definitely not this time....a couple of weeks ago when it was 13c across a large swathe of the east while it was 23c in the west, then certainly.
But when it's 28c in the east and 28-30c in the west, then it's just belting everywhere!
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Woodvale in the NW and Exeter in the SW both reporting 29c....come on, one of these stations has to do it!
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22 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Hope people are enjoying the warmth. 20c here down in far west Cornwall but easily feels 25c in the June sun strength and humidity.
Could it be the Carribbean? Yes, until you go into the water. Icy.
Looks absolutely stunning. Enjoy!
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Think they are all bad at it. Just seen Darren Bett saying today will see 27-28c maxima....when we've already reached 28c in multiple locations by midday. It's clearly a 29/30c day, so why not show it?
I know MeteoGroup worship the ECM, but if you go off that for today it shows 26c as the max here - we've already reached 28c by midday. So it's just wrong.
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This pattern wouldn't need much shifting east for the UK to be under 15-20c 850s....if it was a touch more like the anomaly chart with the high to our east then it'd be a direct hit. Certainly one to watch. The air over Spain and Portugal is ridiculously hot with 28/29c 850hpa. With maxes at 44-45c, these are probably at record breaking levels in places for June, and perhaps all time.-
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Favoured spots for 30c are down towards the SW (and perhaps the NW too) where the higher 850 temps are holding on.
Slightly cooler 850s from the E/NE are encroaching here, which means maxima in eastern areas are likely to peak in the next hour or two while western areas continue to climb into the mid afternoon, with the highest temps around 1-4pm. -
27c at Cambridge, Prestwick, Topcliffe, Exeter and Lakenheath at 11am.....3c to break the curse. I think somewhere will do it, but only by 0.5c or less.
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11 minutes ago, sunny_vale said:From what I can see, there is a brief unsettled interlude around the start of next week, but higher pressure builds in quite readily from Wednesday. I agree, no immediate signs of a significant or long-lasting pattern change. Certainly, no barrelling Atlantic depressions to speak of.
Brief unsettled periods happen in all summers....it doesn't mean that it's a full on change. If it's just handful of days before a reload then it's no pattern change.
I think the rest of June is going to be pretty good on the whole, and after a slow start for some, it'll end up well above average and one to remember. Abundant sunshine for a lot of people, very dry for some, bursts of heat, a notable early 32c, some epic storms, and perhaps most importantly....if it gets rid of the June 13th jinx today then it'll be long celebrated! It's ticked most boxes.-
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12 minutes ago, SunSean said:
Always would love to go down to the South coast but whenever I ever mention it to my mates, they always bottle it haha. I can imagine a day out down there in this weather would be a brilliant experience.
It’s like Southend, but better and without half of East London there
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Not sure where all of this talk of change to an unsettled regime is coming from?
Thats the latest NOAA and ECM out to end of the month. What part of that is really unsettled?
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31 minutes ago, Azazel said:
I don't mind an unsettled blip - my worry is we will get stuck in an unsettled pattern for weeks on end and the proper nice weather never returns.
I usually feel this way, but I don’t think the unsettled blip will turn into a full on rain fest this time.
Most of the models show a ridge over Western Europe again by day 10…ecm update last night for the next 3 weeks also looks good.
In short…no signs in any modelling of an impending washout.
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Managed to squeeze 29c out of today, sun just about holding on. An impressive run of maxima here - 31c, 31c, 29c over the last 3 days. Not to be sneezed at.
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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Sums out but temps stuck at a stupid 22C due to the sea breeze.
Count yourself lucky! A couple of weeks ago we had 13c and slate grey skies here, I'd have snapped your hand off for 22c!
A humid 28c with the sun probably gone within the next half an hour, to be replaced with cloud and chance of rain. At least we got half a decent hot day in before the grot arrives.-
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Up to 26c here, but cloud rapidly approaching....might be an early max before a drop off. NW probably best today.
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I dare say it'll be difficult to plan any forecast for this summer with confidence going off North Atlantic SST anomalies....off the scale and a long way warmer than anything in the last 40 years.
(pic Official Weather UK Twitter)
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4867665-
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I dare say it'll be difficult to plan any forecast for this summer with confidence going off North Atlantic SST anomalies....off the scale and a long way warmer than anything in the last 40 years.
(pic Official Weather UK Twitter)
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18 hours ago, piglet said:
They certainly didn't have the means to measure carbon dioxide accurately at parts per million leveis, but we do now.
I'm open to suggestions, but 33% increase in 50 years looks suspiciously like human activity.
My greatest concern, though, is the loss of arctic ice and glacial retreat as that can quickly go into runaway degradation.
The evidence seems overwhelming to me, if people who say we aren't to blame and that it is natural cycles....then where does all of our emissions go?
There is always a trade off/payback, and our constant burning of fossil fuels can't just be going along nicely with no consequences. It's just massively ramped up with the population explosion and industrialisation of a much larger percentage of the Earth in the last 40 years that has accelerated this.-
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
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The trend is your friend as they say….ECM 00z pressure ensemble.