mb018538
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Posts posted by mb018538
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Is Alex slowly starting to morph into Kenneth Williams....that's the real trend here! Ooh, Matron!-
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10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
If it carries on to the last week of July that's arguably worse than 2012, which improved around the 19th and never got really bad again.
(But doesn't it say July 20th, so not the last week of July?)
Still, it's way off in FI and probably a substantially less bad outlook will result.
This July hasn't been anything like as bad as 2012 though, and doesn't look like being, despite being low pressure dominated.
Some areas in the NW may disagree I guess, but it's not been anywhere near as wet, cold and unsettled here. Your experiences may vary greatly on location as always in this country!
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UKV shows 30c being reached on Friday & Saturday-
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12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
I see no reason to continue looking at the outlook after this weekend- there is simply nothing of interest now.
I'm taking solace in the fact that summers with notable hot spells don't often drop off a cliff for too long- usually the heat comes back, even if there is a break in between.
Like this you mean? UKV and GFS show 28/29c across the E/SE corner on Friday - this is a good few degrees higher than the ECM, but more likely I think.
Could be a one day wonder - potentially still very warm in the far east of the UK on Saturday, but it's a losing battle from advancing rain and cooler air from the west.
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1 minute ago, danm said:
Doesn’t your post just indicate that none of us should place too much faith in the medium to long range models, if they can flip so decisively in 2 days, as you say? Doesn’t that in itself suggest that even the flip to a more unsettled outlook for the foreseeable shouldn’t be relied upon too much as well?
We obviously don’t ignore them, as it gives us a tentative direction of travel, but they are unreliable. Hence just primarily focus on what’s been shown modelled up to day 7 and take anything beyond then with a large dollop of salt.
Sure - I'm hoping that as quickly as this has descended upon us that at some point it'll just flip out of nowhere. Judging by the AAM forecasts it's just going to be a bit slower than first anticipated. Weather just likes to make mugs of us all. Just a bit surprised it's being quite persistent now that it's arrived, as it's not an atmospheric state like 2007/2012 that would tend to lend itself to long periods of unsettled weather for weeks on end.
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Have to give the ECM model a bit of a slapped wrist here.
The probability forecast has gone from all red from the 8th July to now not seeing any until the end of July in the space of 2 days. (30th June vs 2nd July)
500mb forecast also now has low pressure dominating for the next 2 weeks, and even week 3 has the UK surrounded by high pressure, which will either mean more concerted low pressure, or just flabby low heights resulting in showers or longer spells of rain.
Let's hope the rise in momentum that Matt/Tamara have mentioned will bear fruit towards the last couple of weeks of the month. These usually from experience just appear from nowhere as the models don't factor them in too well.
Either way it's a bit of a bust from most LRFs, none of which picked a low pressure dominated July coming to the party this year!-
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4 minutes ago, danm said:
So we may as well stop viewing the models then till the 16th because the anomaly chart shows that?
Didn’t say that. Just that it’s overwhelmingly likely going to be unsettled now for the next couple of weeks. Might squeak a day or so of something better next weekend, but otherwise it’s hope and pray it’s not a washout.
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10 minutes ago, danm said:
Not a great set of runs this morning. Some brief warmth in the east between Thursday and Sat/Sun. Then troughing entrenched again next week.
However, don’t see how people can now write off the first “20 days” of July considering we’re only on the 3rd. Anything beyond next weekend is still very uncertain, considering the timescales.
NOAA have until the 16th as a write off. Can’t see a quick way out of that one in 4 days…
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1 hour ago, Alderc said:
GFS 00Z accelerates the front through even quicker on Saturday and has it clearing the east coast by 18Z subsequently it’s a poor day for most with the exception of those east of London. GEM barely brings in any warmth at all now. Both models then anchor the trough back over the UK, summer firmly on hold. Very poor output indeed this morning especially for the majority away from the east coast.
Just to add, the GFS ensembles heavy support the trough being anchored to the Uk through to mid month, just the odd outlier member suggesting a repeat of a brief souther incursion, despite the great June a poor first half oh July looking increasingly likely.
Dreadful set of 00z runs. I really thought the unsettled start to July would flush out pretty quickly this year and not be like years gone by….looks like I was wrong. First 15-20 days look written off already now.
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Models really struggling to resolve the low/high and where any plume of heat ends up. ECM is another warm one but I still think this is odds against.
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25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
This is why you use ensembles and not individual runs to determine how likely charts are. Sadly the ecm op wasn’t in keeping with the ens and was more likely than not going to get scaled back.
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A very uninspiring set of 12z runs, none showing the eye candy we had on the 00z.
No ridge to be seen…
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Looks like a bit of a stand off. Here's GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8. Will the trough stall out west like the GEM/ECM show....or will it plough through like the GFS shows and keep it unsettled for all?
The GFS Op is at the bottom of the ensembles so may be too progressive, though looking at the postage stamps at 192 for the GFS, it doesn't seem keen at all to develop anything like GEM or ECM.
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As I look out of my window just now….with the rain falling from a lead grey sky, and the wind swirling….it could easily be October. Depressing.
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I should think the ecm is way too progressive and an unsettled outlier. We hope!
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GEM ensemble shows the 12z run isn’t even close to the hottest member….mean now up to 10-12c for next weekend. Chances seem to be on the increase for another blast of heat in a weeks time.
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Have to confess I wasn’t expecting to see that at day 8 tonight….clearly at the very top end of expectations, but shows what can happen if that trough stalls and pressure can build ahead of it.
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The ECM op was at the top end of the ensembles - but the general picture is an improving one for pressure, 500mb heights & 850 temps in the 7-10 day period.
One to watch.-
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Much, much better ECM this morning. Trough held sufficiently west for a bit of a ridge and push of warmth to come in.
Continuing to be a NW/SE split in terms of temperatures and rainfall. SE looking pretty dry still.
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24 minutes ago, Nick L said:
I really don't get the negativity regarding the summer so far. The last 2-3 weeks have been as glorious as you can realistically hope for. Consistently mid-20s and above with many areas seeing storms.
What do folks actually expect from a British summer month?! The Med this ain't!
Apparently the hottest or joint hottest June on record just isn't good enough.....sigh.
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The weather gods well and truly giving us our payback for the amazing June. What a terrible chart. Please just hurry up and get this pattern moved along, we're approaching the peak of summer and it's going to be wasted with this absolute pony.-
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Thanks…..
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
EPS still has troughing over the UK in a fortnight, it's just a weakening signal. There is literally zero output at the moment suggesting a move out of this unsettled rut at present. Just have to ride it out and hope for the best. Certainly being a stubborn old mule to shift now it's set in.