[Summer 2023 chat]

2 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Surprisingly sunny morning which was not on the forecast at all. Satellite shows clouds encroaching but its still turned out way better than the predicted zero hours of sunshine that was forecast!

Same here....been sunny and quite oppressive at 27c. No starting to cloud over, but I wasn't expecting such a good first half of the day either.
ECM only had 23-24c as the max here, so UKV has led the way again.

[The Heat Haters Club 2023]

19 hours ago, Alderc said:

Humidity levels at times outside have been in the 20s and 30s percent post Monday. You really can’t any drier air in the uk. 

People always confuse heat with humidity, I say it all the time. The amount of people who said it was humid last week when it was at 30% was bizarre.
Last week was about as dry as you can get as you say.....the 40c day in 2022 had humidity below 20% though, which is almost unheard of for the UK.

Now I will have a moan today, as it is actually humid and worth a moan. 25c with 70% humidity isn't nice for anyone, even a summer worshipper like me.
Sweaty and sticky. Low pressure, warm air and more moisture from the SW the culprit. Give me back last week please!

[Summer 2023 chat]

A lot less activity than the UKV was predicting for midday currently showing on the radar....perhaps it'll ignite fairly soon.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Just now, kold weather said:

This is a fair point, the outlook for the SE in particular is pretty warm. I do think Tuesday could well go alot cooler than what it shows depending on the exact track of that developing low, but other than that I think this week will actually be quite warm the further SE you go.

AROME looks a touch cooler for tomorrow mind you, but the UKV did a pretty sensational job with the temperatures over the last week and a half.

I was very dubious when the UKV started showing 31/32c for the recent hot spell and none of the other models were beyond 28-29c....but it came up trumps and was spot on. My faith has been restored!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

With all this talk about next weekend, maybe some people are forgetting that this week itself will be very warm in many areas...

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

1 hour ago, Neil Harris said:

How are the models looking for Glastonbury?

As of today...

Friday looking mainly dry and cloudy, temperatures around 22-23c
Saturday starting off cloudy, clearing later. Temps around 23-24c
Sunday probably looking the best of the three day. Dry, sunny and quite hot. Temps 26-27c

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

51 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

The OP is a huge outlier though, very top of the ensemble pack, which actually suggest we are going to be getting cooler as we move towards the end of June

 

It's a very marginal drop. Mean hovering around 10c until the last couple of days, and even then it drops slightly but is still above average.

[Summer 2023 chat]

Now this is soupy today. 20c with 80% humidity. Feels gross. Can just tell it’s going to explode today with some huge storms. This solar input this morning is only going to fuel them!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM has mid to high twenties next weekend. Here comes the heat again!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

 

GFS is really starting to get interested in this tropical system. GEM and ECM don't even show it at all.

By 270 hours the 6z has it scooped up by the Jetstream and heading our way. NOAA give this a 70% chance of development, so it's one to watch.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Have to say that's a really disappointing ECM. Any weak ridging building is quickly flattened out. No total washout, but what looked promising in the output, anomalies and extended model runs looks to be potentially going down the pan.



A role reversal in terms of temperatures though - eastern areas will fare best in this westerly flow, so staying pretty warm here into the mid 20s, whereas mid to high teens maxima expected in western areas.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 168 gets a

Much cleaner build from the ukmo, no mess hanging back. See what ecm says..

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

 

GEM still has some stronger ridging, but gfs continues to go the other way so that it’s barely settled at all.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

A definite wobble over the last day or so - if pressure doesn't build in strongly over the 8-10 day period and stays flat, then it could open the floodgates a little bit like the 6z op run.



6z is bottom end for the back of the run, but it now looks about 50/50 which way it goes, when it more like 75/25 in favour of settled yesterday.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM mean day 8-10 shows the ridge and warmer conditions spreading up from the SW. Looks like a more traditional NW/SE pattern to me - higher pressure and best conditions towards the SE, NW areas could be at risk of some rainfall at times closer to low pressure. Much like the ECM op run from this morning - see chart below.

[Summer 2023 chat]

Last of the widely settled and clear days today for most....enjoy it before a slight dip in conditions and some rain through next week.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Looking like the end of next week to early weekend for pressure to start building properly.

ECM, GFS and GEM all look quite similar with a ridge building in ahead of an Atlantic trough - key difference being the GEM has a sharper trough which in turn promotes a stronger ridge, and a greater pull of hotter air.



ECM a little flat and disappointing at 240:

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC ends good

Only far the SW corner….high is too far west on the 12z run, plenty of cloud and moisture spilling down keeping it cloudy and showery everywhere else. Needs to be further east like the 00z run was to benefit everyone!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

At last some Atlantic fresh air, by this time next week, any thing after that is all speculation. ....

21c with a dewpoint at 14c gives a humidity of 74% and some rainfall....doesn't look especially fresh! Atlantic is record warm, so it'll be more humid than normal.

[Summer 2023 chat]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

UKV shows highs here above 25C every single day up to Monday next week. This unsettled interlude will still be very warm. 

Certainly will....maxes here for the coming days are 28/27/26/27....then Monday could be anything from 25c to up to 30c if UKV is right. Certainly warm.

This is an interesting chart - humidity in the low to mid 20s?

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

21 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Only ten days away....!

It clearly won't be exactly as that chart shows, but I the general model trend is for high pressure to build from the SW and potentially move eastwards and draw up warmer air again. How long it'll last and how warm it'll  be still to be decided.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

ECM looking very warm to hot again by next Sunday...already showing 27c for Saturday, and Sunday has stronger high pressure and higher 850s.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

This mornings output starting to follow the anomalies....after a more unsettled week or so of weather starting from this weekend, by next weekend high pressure is building in once again.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well this didn't age well!

Even the ECM this evening has the risk of rain throughout next week now. But still some hot sunshine in between. Warm and sometimes wet, I think sums up the models tonight.

Risk of showers or rain every day next week - but staying warm as you say. We will probably see 25c recorded somewhere in the east every day. Humid too. My least favourite. Recent weather has had the 2018 vibe going on - cloudless skies and humidity of 30%. It’s been bliss.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Anyone worrying about the rest of summer should take a look at this….the Atlantic is at record warmth. Unprecedented. How can you really make any forecast with confidence when it’s got conditions that haven’t existed before. We will have to wait and see.