mb018538
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Posts posted by mb018538
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I’m also really despondent now. Have been keeping my hopes up throughout July that we weren’t in a La Niña year and this sort of set up wouldn’t stick for weeks and weeks on end….but it has, and July isn’t too far from being finished in terms of summery weather.
Come on August, we can’t have the best June on record followed by two absolute howlers.
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Absolutely no.
I think for most people it probably sits around the sweet spot where it isn't too hot or too cold. I like it a few degrees warmer, but each to their own.-
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2 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:
We don't need 5 days..
Can we get 3 and a half?
If it looks dodgy (which it does), then conditions won't really be ripe for a high scoring game anyway. It'll probably swing and seam all over the gaff.
We can blast 250 in 50 overs and roll them over. Just have to keep checking back on the models and pray!-
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ECM...low pressure, cool air aloft, low 500mb heights....can only lead to big, beefy showers.
We also get this lovely chart of nothingness. Not one isobar over the UK or Ireland.
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Decent GEM tonight at day 9 and 10 - a bit more of a ridge and drier. Temps no great shakes at 22-24c maxima, but that's perfectly acceptable compared to what we've had to put up with recently.-
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1 minute ago, Catacol said:
Forgive me for jumping in, blindfold on, at this point. My blindfold is on because I haven't been following the forum at all for several months due to a hatred of hayfever, a general dislike of heat and therefore a dread of high summer. For me the current period of temps in the 18-23 bracket are an absolute joy so gnashing of teeth and some stuff I've just scanned about failed midsummer forecasts are chaff in the wind.
Fortunately, winter is coming once again....
What has caught my eye is the disconnect between ENSO base state and the GWO orbit, a reflection of global wind flows. I wonder whether there is a database somewhere of the general state of the ocean/atmospheric connection state over time - to my anecdotal eye and memory we seem to have been regularly experiencing situations where a disconnect exists. You don't have to be a genius to grasp the significance of a disconnect - we know the expected long wave implications of base state and accompanying MJO phase. But when the atmosphere is not behaving as expected (and that plunge to -3 MT illustrated by Tamara above would be an example) it throws everything off kilter. We can correctly conclude that -AAM enhanced by torques like this will eventually bounce back: that is the nature of the relationship between earth and atmosphere, always craving absolutely synergy but constantly experiencing elasticated acceleration and deceleration. At some point there will be a bounce back in momentum and the Nina-style atlantic profile will shift, removing the current trough - but timing, timing, timing.....and so difficult to work out when the atmosphere is off on a tangent, misbehaving and not doing what it should.
What then fascinates me is how such disconnects occur and why (if seems to me to be the case) they are so common - at least these days. We had an atmosphere playing as though we were in a Nino phase during a Nina winter, and now that we have a Nino base state the atmosphere swings the other way. I do not profess to understand why such disconnects occur. I know with absolute certainty that they make longer range forecasting a nightmare. Through the winter we did at least have an MJO that stuck to standard script and allowed some impacts from phases 6/7/8 to be correctly landed - but while the MJO is extremely important it is not the whole picture and I crave a better understanding of disconnected states.
For summer lovers July is looking poor precisely because of this current disconnect, and forecasters who do understand teleconnections will be frustrated because these situations make it look as though the weeble is about as well understood as the elbow. Not the case. Timing becomes a nightmare. But in the current situation (though I must admit I'm saying this having not looked in any great details as to what is going on) it would be a surprise if a poor August followed a poor July. The disconnect would have to be extreme and the period of -AAM dominant for a very sustained period against a backdrop of growing Nino impacts.
Not really a model related post - so I best finish with something of a model nature to avoid the wrath of those who like NWP output. Signs perhaps of the azores high returning closer to home by week 1 august.
I agree - it's a very Nina style set up at the moment, and one that wasn't expected to dominate (hence all of the LRFs going mainly settled, warm and dry). The bounce back is just taking forever. Might take until the very end of the month or early August now to see any proper change.
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Truly dreadful mid summers day....17c and pouring with rain. Could easily be October.
If August delivers then this summer would still be a good one. We're going to get one of the best June's in history followed by one of the worst July's.-
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AAM is only beginning to sharply rise in the coming days….just have to hope this is enough to move the stuck pattern along towards the end of the month. Models really not interested in anything other than a continuation of what we’ve got.-
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48 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Looks like Troughy McTrough will start to disappear through next week however don’t get too excited as all GEM, GFS and Ukmo look to introduce a colder airmass to come down from the north leaving us in a showery regime, with cool temperatures both day and night.
That said both GFS and GEM Ops are big cool outliers, however you wouldn’t bet against that solution given all the Ops runs are inline including ECM. That wait for warmth will undoubtedly continue into august.
Not looking overly promising I have to say. I was quite hopeful a couple of days back we might get a pressure build through next weekend, but that’s now looking unlikely. We will simply go from full blown unsettled that we have now to just slightly unsettled. Such a shame after that amazing June that the entirety of July could be down the chute before we know it. The waiting game continues…
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3 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Yeah whenever anyone on here decides to point to LRF's, this should always be quoted.
Hokum stuff. Tempted to put out my own LRF's - infact, I made one towards the end of June (around the solstice) - the next month or so will be pants with maybe the odd warmer day thrown in (had that one hot day last week), but I was told "NoOo iTs JuSt A bLiPpP" even though its been like 3 weeks and counting.
What are the LRFs showing for winter? Need to know so I can plan for the complete opposite.
Have to say I'm really disappointed with them. None went for a low pressure dominated July at all, it was just warm and dry dominating. To get the exact opposite doesn't really do much for trust or confidence!
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Look away now if you are after anything good from the day 10-15 ECM ensembles this morning, they are grim to say the least.-
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13 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Tell you what @Aldercthe ECM 00Z ensemble mean backs the op at 240 hours with a ridge but with NW winds. I'm looking at it cautiously but there is scope for something a bit drier.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0
As long as it's not this, I don't mind the mean below. Wouldn't be hot, but around average and decent enough out of showers.
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I'd urge some caution with forecasts at this sort of range though.....this little blighter is going into the mixer and will cause chaos.-
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Crunch time...will the lull around 7/8 be filled with low pressure like the GFS run shows, or will high pressure start to build like the GEM?
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9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Not looking good at the moment but I'm taking comfort in the fact that it's 9 days away- and a lot can change between now and then.
I always thought when we went 2-0 down that we could possibly win 3 tests (a big ask), but that the weather would surely ruin one if the games making it impossible to win the series. Looks very dodgy for Manchester though, I agree.
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49 minutes ago, danm said:
Runs this morning all look a bit "meh" to use a technical phrase. This week is set in stone, so not too much point labouring on the unsettled outlook we have coming up, except to note that it's not a total washout for all - today, Thursday and Friday may turn out pretty respectable in the south/SE. This morning is a sunny, fairly warm one and it's forecast to be dry with sunny spells and 23c. That's about right for the time of year, but some heavy rain further north and west. There is also potential for some wilder wet and windy weather for a time this weekend looking at the models.
Into the extended, and as you'd expect the Op runs are flip flopping all over the place for next week due to the lead time. Some runs show a good build from the Azores high, others show it much more muted with continued trough incursions from the NW. So best at this stage to check the means and see where we are likely to be relative to this week.
The ECM mean (below) is still consistently showing a rise in pressure starting from around next Monday. So whilst there is no heatwave forecast, things should settle down and we will likely have more sunny and dry days than wetter one's, compared to this week. It's a positive first step.
The GFS mean is similar:
...and the GEM:
Looking at the Op runs for a minute, to highlight what this means, this chart from the ECM could sum up where we are at next week:
A build of high pressure from the west, with a mean flow from the W/NW (but Atlantic sourced) - so not overly warm, but pleasant in any sunshine with average temperature's (22-24c in the south, high teens/20c further north). However, some trough influence still likely, especially further north, and possibly for all at times. However, if the SLP means are anything to go by, these will be transient and we won't have a trough parked over us.
So no immediate switch to a 2018/2022 set up is on the cards, but a slow improvement is still the likely outcome for next week.
That's only rising to a mean of 1015mb though....which isn't going to be overly settled whichever way you look at it.
ECM clusters starting to look better at the end....not amazing, but better than now.
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:
Im still learning these charts as im sure many of you are. But from what i can get from this is that theres no strong Azores high, but heights are waxing and waning to our Northwest.
Main take from this is how static the patterns have been the last couple of weeks In our patch and to the west. Rinse and repeat.
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47 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Little change in the models this morning, getting a dry day this coming week could a tough ask as could be getting any sunshine and the moment Friday and Saturday look really, really bad.
GFS Ops briefly hints at a rise in pressure through the middle of next although even what would be considered normal summer weather is a big outlier against its ensemble pack. GEM and ECM still agreed on no end to the ‘short unsettled blip’ and it’s going to be a case of finding the odd few usable hours of summer weather in-between the garbage and hoping the garbage doesn’t wreck the weekends.
I think we will start to see some better charts appearing in the next 2-3 days.
AO should turn back positive towards the last 10 days of the month, which is crucial in changing this stuck pattern. Hold tight.
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Much better end to the GFS….Arctic heights finally gone and something more normal. Could take a while to get there, but maybe the last 7-10 days of the month could be much better.
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Absolute fail here again for any storms. 0.2mm of rain and that’s it.
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Stop worrying about the longer term output…the change will come eventually, and it’ll be picked up late as usual. The models will just keep churning out the same output until they latch on. Could be last 7-10 days of the month though. This pattern will move once AAM spikes, there’s just nothing to change it at present.
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It’s 27c here at 10am….without all the muck coming in I reckon we’d easily see 31-32c today. Not long until the heavens open no doubt
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The change (if and when it arrives) will probably just appear from nowhere on the ensembles. Remember them all showing this unsettled period to just be 7-10 days? Instead we're going to end up with 3 weeks or more. Once signals for change start to get picked up then it'll just slot into place.
This chart that Matt posted is telling - models did a very bad job of spotting the big fall in AAM, which is why they didn't paint a long lasting unsettled picture. The fall has been bigger and longer than expected, but the upwards surge in the coming week should move this pattern along.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Nothing good about it I’m afraid, that rapidly deepening low is headed our way the day after. All runs dreadful again and no signs at all yet of anything other than a continuation of the rubbish we’ve got now. I’ve really enjoyed 50mph winds today in the middle of summer