Fiona Robertson
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Fiona Robertson replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WEATHER NERDS ASSEMBLE! I've been wandering through history looking at the Great Storm of 1987, in particular the low pressure set-up prior to the arrival of the nasty beastie from the Bay of Biscay. What triggered this meander of mine is the modelled track for Ciaran. It seems that Ciaran makes landfall around or just east of Plymouth and exits at the Humber estuary. That track rang bells so off I went on a hunt and found this wonderful wee source. Great Storm of 87 WWW.EUROPEANWINDSTORMS.ORG It seems that the landfall and exit of the Great Storm is almost identical, see GFS model animation posted by @IDO Anyway, this got me thinking (always a dangerous thing). IIRC,the Great Storm was when some bright spark picked upon the existence that dratted thing called a sting jet, a thing which has been the bane of my life understanding-wise. Somewhere in this topic, many pages and moons ago, someone mentioned the possibility of a sting jet with Ciaran. This made me wonder where the dry air in the Great Storm came from. Did it motor up from Biscay already embedded or was it absorbed in from one of the three lows hanging around that had colder (and thus presumably drier) air within them? I recently heard that lows attract each other, a bit like magnets (thanks Ryan Hall Y'all) so did these three lows steer the Great Storm and if they did which low did what steering? Are the three lows currently being modelled going to steer Ciaran? Was there a north Scandi high affecting the great Storm? Will the modelled north Scandi high affect Ciaran? Are there significant differences between the two or are they eerily similar? I'm not able to answer these questions because I'm merely a terminally enthusiatic amateur with total numpty qualities. I'd be most grateful if a kind person could try to answer these questions. You will be pleased to know that I finally grasp sting jets (I think, for now), so you won't have to explain that to me again. -
Thank you so much for that. I thought I was having a bit of deja vu, re Storm Aline.
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I'm posting these images here because it seems the nerds are in attendance and I thought they would appreciate this eye candy. In my previous post I included a sat image and a wind map image of a new twirly whirly snail system sitting SW of the Iberian peninsula. I was messing about with the wind map thingie and I had a wee look at the winds at different altitudes. The twirly whirly snail seems to have formed in a tight loop of the jet stream.I'm posting the screenies I grabbed at 500and 250 hPa, in that order. The green circle represents the centre of the twirly whirly snail. I share these only because I found them so amazing and beautiful. I thought they belonged in this thread because of the worry that this will hit us whilst we're still reeling from Babet.
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Anyone know where this is headed? Screenie grabbed just now from NASA: GOES-16, Full Disk, Visible (10min, Band 2) ,wind map grabbed from https://classic.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-16.00,40.38,1095/loc=-21.605,36.020
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Pretty piccie of the day, showing area of circulation on English-Welsh border and another off western France (Aline?).
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Sadly the first death has been reported - a woman swept into the Water of Lee in Glen Esk, Angus at lunchtime today.
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Unfortunately, I wheeled it out on Tuesday when I was describing the rain Scotland got on 7th/8th October...sorry.
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Pretty earth wind animation screen shot. I think the wind speeds aren't too accurate on this, but I found it useful to get an overall understanding of what's happening. Linkie-poo to animation earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions CLASSIC.NULLSCHOOL.NET See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.
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Um... just looked at the visible satellite image... what's this puppy to the SW of Ireland? I'm really not liking this spell of weather. Meanwhile there's now a red rain warning for Friday.
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I see the warnings for Saturday have just materialised as well.
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Just looked at that and my eyes were on stalks On the bright side I no longer need to worry about my runner bean wigwams cos last night the brassica cage took off, landed in a mangled heap on top of 'em and flattened 'em. New worry is Brussels sprouts escaping now that they're uncaged.
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So, looking at the low pressure system which will travel up the North Sea in the wake of Babet. I believe it's Storm Aline, named by the Portuguese. Met Office models are showing significant rainfall for a swathe of England and Wales. Images grabbed frommedia sites cos I'm rubbish at finding the primary sources.
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Dry ground? Source https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_07_scotland_rain.pdf
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Looks like the centre of Babet is just about clearing the Breton peninsula of France
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Soz for the number of posts, I've been playing catch-up after chasing a cat to give him his insulin injection. Looking at the warning matrix, they take into account the impact as well as the likelyhood. A red is high likelyhood, high impact. I think overnight they've managed to firm up the expected rainfall totals and then taken account of the geography, amber alert for onshore winds and the high tide times. If you look at a wee terrain map,you'll see that the area affected by the red warning is a sittingduck, so to speak. It covers just north of Dundee to Stonehaven and is almost the same shape as the flat arable land in the catchment area of the north and south Esks.
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High tide times for Montrose, Wed - 16:50, Thurs - 05:11, 17:27, Fri- 05:56, 18:13. With the winds coming from the east, they'll be blowing onshore. This area is covered by the amber wind warning so I expect the red area reflects the amount of rain, the catchment area of the two Esks and the 3.7-4.0 high tides expected. The winds might just increase the height of the tides. Edited to add, that wee area is as flat as a pancake with a heck of a lot of arable land.
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I wonder if it's to do with the fact that the area has the river North Esk and the river South Esk flowing through. There's an "Extreme flood alert" for the North Esk. I need to check the tide times...
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Um...some of the places where this is going to hit got 7 inches of rain in 36 hours just over a week ago and they are forecast to get about the same again. This isn't a run of the mill amount of rain. 7 inches is about the amount Scotland gets over a MONTH during the wettest month of the year. If this pans out we will have had 2 months of rain over 10 days.
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If I may make a wee point about warnings, areas of Scotland had an amber warning for rain and some areas ended up getting about 180mm in a 36hr period. That's 7 inches! We had 7 landslides on one road alone, many watercourses broke their banks, homes were flooded, one car was washed away and an elderly man was washed into the River Tay. His body has just been found in the last few days. Harvests have been washed away,crops have been destroyed,roads washed out, rail lines became canals with 4 feet of water flowing along in some places. 7 inches of rain in a 36hr period. But you see, all of this happened as south of the border people were sweltering in an unseasonal heatwave. You had to go to BBC Scotland to hear about any of this, it didn't seem to be noticed by their main page,or maybe got a wee aside. Personally I think the Met Office got the amber rain warning right, not just because of what I listed above, but also because it allowed me to be prepared for the deluge that came through the light fitting of my bathroom ceiling, gave me a chance to get wee drainage channels dug around my stables and allowed me time to clear the already falling leaves from drains in my vicinity. So for the peeps who think no warning should have been issued when an atmospheric river is going to hit us with 7 inches of rain, how many inches of rain in such a short period would warrant a warning? Edited to add - I'm lucky, I didn't need to worry about my horses being affected by flooding, except their stables, but there are peeps with livestock who had to get them to higher ground BEFORE they got washed away. Given that the worst of the rain hit late on the Saturday, have you any idea how difficult it can be to move livestock in the dark in biblical rainfall?
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Is this Babet?
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Thank you so much for responding. I might be in danger of finally grasping this concept.
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Here we go again with my annual confusion. Is that a suggestion of a pretty little sting jet at the end, that band of dark, dry air? Every year I ask someone to explain sting jets to me,every year I understand it and every year I then forget and have to start all over again.
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Major Hurricane Lee
Fiona Robertson replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
You seen what's just come off land, exiting west, currently SW of Cabo Verde and Margot? Signs of organisiation/rotation already on visible image.
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Major Hurricane Lee
Fiona Robertson replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
OK, I freely admit I'm a rank amateur and I get stuff utterly confused very often. I wasperusingthe latest data from the HurricaneHunter mission into Lee and I decidedto look at the data from a particular dropsonde. The bit bugging meis the line highlighted in yellow. It states "884 mb Surface (sea level)" Is that saying what I think it's saying?
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Major Hurricane Lee
Fiona Robertson replied to matty40s's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
I have a suspicion that the "star" in the centre of the eye is actually Jupiter
