wishingforsnow
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Posts posted by wishingforsnow
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13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Oh dear, I was going to alter my June CET punt last night but forgot, and now I really wish I had. A definite move towards trough domination this morning. By D8 (yesterday's D9), heights just about holding on, but by D9 the trough has broken through
Whereas yesterday's 06Z ens only had a few with a UK trough at this timeframe, today 16 out of 21 see the UK under some sort of trough influence. Still some way off though, but mid-June isn't particular promising at the moment..
I don't see anything particularly bad in that chart, it just looks more mixed than completely settled and warm periods mixed in with more unsettled periods. Not a completely cool washout in my opinion as the High Pressure still lying over Westen Europe should give an occasional influence over the weather. More changeable though. Also a lot can change out to D10. Hopefully for the better and not the worse.
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Also the Jet Stream isn't strong like it was in Winter and we are not in a Solar Minimum period. Said this in the Models thread but even with a La Nina present by the end of Summer, these are two factors that mean we should be spared from a 2007/2012 style Summer for the most part anyway
(During those years and for much of the late 00s, there was a weak Jet Stream in Winter-Spring making for settled cold/warmer than average weather and it kicked in by Summer, which coupled with the solar minimum, made for a washout or below par summer season).
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Basically repeating my post in the models thread but:
The start of June 2016 is reminding me of June 2014 where it was uncertain what way the month would go; shortly before June 2014 started, low pressure was forecast to be dominant after the first few days, it was all doom and gloom with people lamenting that the previous hot spell in early/mid May 2014 would be 'it' for hot and sunny weather and that summer would be horrible from then on but later on the High Pressure set up close by and remained that way keeping the Atlantic influence more minimal. I remember forecasters describing June 2014 as a 'sun or bust' scenario and that's what we're looking at now. Still uncertain but from what I can gather there's either the possibility of the European High Pressure or a trough with low pressure becoming more influential over the UK according to the last EC32 model. Don't put too much though into Matt Hugo's tweet from Monday as the EC32 is constantly changing and the trough and low pressure dominance is only a reflection of one potential output for June - lets not forget that the extremely hot outcome for the last week of May he was previously backing did not come off. Hopefully the first option will win out. My feeling is that June and the summer in general will be a mixed month/season of some warm/hot periods mixed with some cooler/unsettled periods with not one weather type being particularly dominant (like 2014). BBC and Met Office seem to think the same thing.
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This is reminding me of June 2014 where it was uncertain what way the month would go; shortly before the month started, low pressure was forecast to be dominant after the first few days, it was all doom and gloom with people lamenting that the previous hot spell in early/mid May 2014 would be 'it' for hot and sunny weather and that summer would be horrible from then on but later on the High Pressure set up close by and remained that way keeping the Atlantic influence more minimal. I remember forecasters describing June 2014 as a 'sun or bust' scenario and that's what we're looking at now. Still uncertain but from what I can gather there's either the possibility of the European High Pressure or a trough with low pressure becoming more influential over the UK according to the last EC32 model. Don't put too much though into Matt Hugo's tweet from Monday as the EC32 is constantly changing and the trough and low pressure dominance is only a reflection of one potential output for June - lets not forget that the extremely hot outcome for the last week of May he was previously backing did not come off. Hopefully the first option will win out. My feeling is that June and the summer in general will be a mixed month/season of some warm/hot periods mixed with some cooler/unsettled periods with not one weather type being particularly dominant (like 2014). BBC and Met Office seem to think the same thing.
Regarding the GLAAM, I think it will track progressively negative by the end of the summer regarding the developing La Nina. In my opinion the 'ENSO neutral' period between Nino and Nina has to be at least a month, if not two. So my feeling that the better summer weather will be coming in June and July still stands
Remember we also don't currently have a strong jetstream (compared to its strength during the past Winter) and we aren't going through a solar minimum period which are two factors that should spare us from a 2007/2012 style outcome in any case.
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Significantly cooler day today. Quite grey too. However good thing it seems like just a blip - temperatures creeping up to 21-23c by the end of the week for me with a mix of sunshine and thundery showers.
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16 hours ago, Scorcher said:
I can't really see evidence of this coming closer to the reliable timeframe though, a lot of people are saying it but I think that's driven by fears of repeats of the horror summers of recent times. I've called it the 2007 syndrome in the past. Northern blocking hasn't really been a major feature of our summers for some time.
Also most of the summers of the late 00s - early 10s (2010 being the best of the bunch in my opinion) were characterised by reaching a solar minimum which along with northern blocking and months of the Jet Stream tracking predominatley South made for a number of years of cool, wet summers but the flipside back then was colder drier winters.
Secondly, nature has to re balance itself. After having endured 4 months of Atlantic low pressure systems constantly bulldozing over the UK with the Jet Stream stuck to the South in Winter, as we saw in Summer 2014, the Jet has to move North or at least not be stuck predominantley South for longer periods of time allowing for longer periods of settled weather vs the previous pattern of unsettled weather.
Looking at the models, already June is looking like it could come off as an excellent summer month. The Met Office and Beeb's monthly outlook are also now both backing a seemingly warm and settled June. Hopefully the prospect of a European ridge of High Pressure including the UK becomes a trend
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On 23 May 2016 at 21:42, Summer Sun said:
The weather company formally WSI have issued their 3 monthly outlook which covers summer
I posted this earlier but around this time in 2013 WSI also suggested the summer for the UK would be 'cooler than normal' and in 2012 it said it would be 'warmer than normal.' Also it was predicting this past winter to be cooler than normal for the UK. When as we all know it was the opposite.
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7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:
There does seem much expectation around for this Summer and much I expect has come from the media as well as favourable long term forecasts. One of the charts a few days ago looked very similar to June 25th 76' with the Azores High building strongly across the Uk from way Sw. I just wonder if this may happen this year and give a prolonged heatwave and not just a short Spanish plume. I haven't looked into what ocean factors cause the Azores to become so strongly positioned NE though.
I agree with this, a good sign that this Summer may produce longer periods of warm/hot weather than the 'one day wonders' scattered here and there during last Summer.
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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Ah. I'm certainly not suggesting we'll go all 2007 once we get to July and August, simply making the point that i expect the first half to outshine the second.
Yes that's what I'm thinking too. I think personally something like 2014 is on the cards with mixed periods of weather but good periods of warm/hot conditions with the first half of Summer being better than the second.
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2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
An official Nina requires tri-monthly values so yes, there's no chance that Nina will be declared before Autumn however the atmosphere will head in that direction before then. As i recall from Tamara's post a while back each bout of convection lasts about 60 days so we should expect the easterly trades to surge during July and August which will upwell the cold water and cause a substantial loss in GLAMM. The problem we have is that we're headed towards Nina too fast with strong sub-surface anomalies.
Essentially, June is where summer is probably at this year in my opinion with probably a similar pattern to this May (trough to south west, high to north east).
The La Nina transition is just one of many factors which contributes to the UK Summer weather though. I wouldn't be so pessimistic as to say once June is out of the way Summer will become a write off. I'd say we're still in a favourable position to receive good Summer weather for the first part of Summer (June/July) until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, by which time La Nina may well have started its influence. And only La Nina is not the be all and end all of Summer in the UK, the meteorological synoptics being either favourable or unfavorable for settled/warm weather in the UK also have a part to play.
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
It's an interesting pattern at the moment with high pressure only a few hundred miles from being perfectly located but just a tad too far away.
I don't think it will be prevalent during summer though given that the current pattern is pretty Nino like and the next easterly wind burst is going to cause a nosedive to Nina (that will probably occur during July and August).
Given that Nina has not started developing yet, I'd say a transition to Nina is still more likely during August at the earliest if it begins developing in July on the current probability scale by NOAA.
Before then, there probably is more chance of High Pressure being prevalent for periods of time as we currently have the advantages of an ENSO neutral period, a weak jet stream and High Pressure in the vicinity over Continental Europe.
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29 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
Kinda typical outputs for this time of year with an easterly flow soon developing and look like persisting in some capacity for the foreseeable future.
Wednesday does look like it could be the coolest/dullest/wettest day of the week but a lot of uncertainty regarding the details, the shallow trough could well be in a different position by Wednesday comes around which of course will certainly affect the weather on the day itself.
Certainly potential to scoop up some warmth but I don't as of yet see much in the way of a dry settled spell, can't complain as we recently just had one and at the moment, heights over Greenland are low which could bode well for the summer.
Yes, nothing overly dry, hot or settled for the next week but the signs of high pressure influence as we enter next month have been bullishly forecasted over the past week or so. Perhaps it is delayed by the greater low pressure influence during the last week of May but currently there is a good chance of something better to follow as the HP becomes more influential. Low heights over Greenland and Easterlies should also be good for greater influence of continental warmth this summer compared to last year.
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4 hours ago, cheese said:
Familiar pattern.. I really hope this type of thing isn't a sign of what's to come throughout summer.
I think GFS are underplaying the temperatures slightly here. Low-mid 20s currently forecast for my location for Bank Holiday weekend. What we see here is a north south split but encouragingly, as the charts posted by @phil nw. illustrate, as we move into June it looks like the High Pressure over Europe will begin to have a stronger influence over the low
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Basically confirms what I think will happen for BH weekend: a mix of sunshine interspersed with thundery showers with temperatures breaking 20c again.
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The High Pressure influence and fine summer weather has already been delayed from the last week of May unfortunately, but the models right now are throwing around all sorts of different scenarios for Bank Holiday weekend - now we are seeing some outputs showing a trough to the SW being dragged down, or the polar jet being levelled up. In these sort of situations where the models cannot firm up on an outcome, I tend to think what will happen is a halfway house situation so hot weather mixed in with occasional low pressure influence. And afterwards, June is looking good
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1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:
Based on a positive anomaly the spring period of 1998 was definitely still in Nino phase. The neutral period (black lettering) was very short lived and fully Nina by the june to august period. The PDO was also into negative figures by then so whether the current warm phase changes anything, I've no idea.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Well that has to be one of the shortest ENSO neutral periods between an El Nino and La Nina. The PDO being in negative figures back then could have speeded up the process in transitioning from Nino to Nina in 98'.
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Anything above 13C hopefully.
Will go for 14.4C for now.
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Yes I suspect things won't be clear cut until the middle of next week. 50/50 at the moment. Hopefully we won't be on the wrong side of the 'so close yet so far scenario.'
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Just to add, my further research shows the 1998 La Nina began developing in the Spring so the ENSO neutral period that year must have fallen between February-May so very similar to 2007. La Nina 1983/84 was weak/moderate following a strong El Nino, began developing in the Summer but did not affect the weather until the Autumn. La Nina 2016 though forecasted to start developing slightly earlier, has not started developing yet. And the 98-99 Nina was also a moderate/strong one. La Nina 2016 is currently forecasted to be weak/moderate. If La Nina 2016 begins developing in July chances are it won't begin affecting our weather until late Summer at the earliest.
And as stated above the link between El Nino and La Nina is not entirely the sole reason for a good or bad summer in the UK. Though it can have an impact the size of which depending on its strength , it is one of a number of factors such as the size of the Atlantic cold pool and heights over Greenland (which stopped the UK experiencing sustained periods of hot weather last summer). Also not enough high pressure over Western Europe in 2007 (Eastern Europe, South eastern Europe and Greece got all the heat that year!) to push the jet stream North combined with lack of solar activity. So La Nina or El Nino is not the only decider of a good or bad summer for the UK. Every year is different with meteorological synoptics and though years can have similar patterns surrounding the causes and effects of particular weather in the UK no one year is going to be exactly the same
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Again it's a case of hoping the ECM/GEFS/UKMO is closer to the mark for Bank Holiday over the GFS.
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It all depends on the position of the low. Certainly low pressure may have a bigger influence than previously thought if the low from the west of the UK is stubborn and doesn't clear off to allow hot weather up from the Continent - some model runs do show this set up but other runs such as ECM and some GEFS members show the High Pressure pushing on through and delivering the warmth and dry weather. But at the moment it's very much still unknown which way it will go. This is what the Beeb were hinting at, it's not that they were wrong about possible High Pressure influence from the end of next week.
On the other hand, ECM is showing high pressure building from early next week as per @Summer Sun's charts. Whether this develops into warm/dry weather or unsettled weather is very much dependant on if the High Pressure can push the low west of the UK out enough to allow warmer/hot temperatures up or if the Low will scupper the influence of the HP ridge from earlier in the week.
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21 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:
For "transitioning from El Nino into La Nina", which looks likely to happen this summer, we have:
1973- a pretty mixed summer, warmish June and August, cool July, and quite wet in the August, with heatwave in early September
1988- dry June, albeit dull over most of England, then an infamous washout July dominated by westerlies, changeable westerlies continued in August but not as much as in July
1995- cool first half of June which was cloudy in the east, otherwise a memorable hot dry sunny summer, especially late July and August
1998- dull wet June, cool cloudy westerly July, a north-south split in August with dry sunny weather in the south, fairly cloudy in the north
2007- exceptional rainfall in June and July led to flooding, cool but fairly dry and sunny August for most
2010- warm dry sunny June, NW-SE split in July which was very warm in the SE but very dull in the west, August was cool, dull and wet in the south but sunnier in the NW
So a pretty mixed bag really! In terms of ENSO I think the nearest matches are 1973 and 1998.
I think 1998 was El Nino which had carried on longer than expected - it was the biggest El Nino on record after all!
I feel like 2010 gets a bad rep and is unfairly lumped in with the other poor summers of the late 00s-early 10s. From what I remember, Summer 2010 was probably the best summer out of the 2007-2012 period where most summers were average to poor. I suppose it's often written off as nothing special because of it's lack of sustained UK wide heat and North/South split leading to predominantely unsettled weather in the North. On reflection Summer 2010 was essentially a warmer version of Summer 2015.
I think in 2010 the flip to Nina didn't occur until late summer if I remember right, much like what is predicted for this year. Same with 1995.
Whereas 2007 was a summer occurring during a La Nina dominated atmosphere which began developing in February of that year and became fully formed by the late Spring. The ENSO neutral period occurred in the Spring as February-April 2007 were fairly dry, warmer than average months culminating with the record warm April which served an early taste of summer like conditions, only in early May to be replaced by almost non stop rain and low pressure systems for almost 4 full months - save for the last week in July.
Although there is a slightly higher probability for La Nina to begin developing in July (52%), the greater chances for it to start impacting our weather still remains September (71%) with August a close second (65%) according to NOAA. Before that, still a greater chance of an ENSO neutral period falling in May/June/July than there is for La Nina to develop by July. All in all, I think at the moment, August if not September has the highest chance of La Nina to begin impacting our weather even if it begins developing quicker than expected in mid/late Summer. Also suggests it will be weak/moderate so perhaps its impact won't be extremely significant (compared to say, 2007 which was moderate/strong)
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Been a mixed day of pleasant sunshine in between bands of rain here
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The Daily Express are a joke, I can't believe people still believe the nonsense they churn out! (weatherwise and in general)
As for the story on The Telegraph, I guess there could be potential on paper for one or a few 30 degree days in London and the South this summer but it's nothing new really that periods of warm/hot weather are followed by thunderstorms with flooding potential. And fits in with the general meteorological consensus of a La Nina flip in August which has been a write off summer month in recent years anyway.
(During those years and for much of the late 00s, there was a weak Jet Stream in Winter-Spring making for settled cold/warmer than average weather and it kicked in by Summer, which coupled with the solar minimum, made for a washout or below par summer season).
Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow
I agree, I think that June and the summer in general could more or less follow a pattern of mixed weather with generally above average temperatures. I've personally found that since the end of Winter and mid March, periods of wet and windy Atlantic dominated weather have shortened in length compared to lasting for weeks and months as they did this past Winter.
Which is good for the current period; in that during the past Winter there was the Jet Stream at its strongest. Posted this in the Summer 2016 thread but back in the late 00s - early 10s there was a pattern where the Jet Stream would be weaker and track North more often during Winter and Spring and become stronger and mostly track South during the Summer.