Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

wishingforsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    312

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by wishingforsnow

    Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    For what it's worth, personally I'd rather be experiencing periods of slightly cooler than average unsettled weather during early Spring as opposed to during the Summer if it has to happen. For instance, most of April last year was dry, sunny and warmer than average for weeks but what followed was a dull wet and cold May and a cool June. And the awful summer of 2012 followed a mostly dry winter and warm dry spring (bar April). 

    Also remember that models often overdo stormy and unsettled conditions so who knows how stormy it will actually be or not.

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Not particularly being in the circulation of the LP to the south.

    Well overall I don't think we'll be completely returning to the position we were in during Winter where we were just looking for any signs whatsoever of settled weather in the midst of all the rain. As it's Spring there is generally more chance of more frequent and longer spells of drier weather occurring as well as unsettled weather.

    Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    I recall one of Fergie's posts from a few weeks back stating that after a spell of anticyclonic weather things were likely to get more cyclonic again by the end of March though personally don't think it will be anything like what we experienced during Winter and hopefully not for as long either. Also I find extended forecasts are vague beyond 5-7 days and likewise models, and could change easily. I think what may happen is a week of particularly unsettled weather but it won't be as 'extended' as rain non stop for weeks on end like we saw in November, December and most of January. Met Office have also not ruled out settled spells inbetween the unsettled weather around Easter and early April. We are in a better position for longer or more frequent settled spells now that we have entered Spring although April looks like it will be slightly colder than average. A cold early Spring has been predicted on 3 month outlooks with encouragingly, warmer conditions towards the end into Summer :)

    • Like 1

    What Did You Think of Winter 2015/16?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    The second worst winter to 2013/14 sums it up for me. Just a worse extention of Autumm. When the significantly wet weather began last November after a fairly dry Autumn I was hoping it wouldn't be the start of months of the same conditions again. And I was unfortunately wrong. What redeemed 15/16 slightly is that in the South we didn't get as much heavy rain as we did in 13/14 and the 10 day settled spell in January as well as improvement from February in terms of more dry and usable weather; for me 13/14 was one long barrage of wind and heavy rain for days and weeks from early December until the middle of March! However in 15/16 when it wasn't raining most of the time there was still drizzle and dark clouds in the sky. In November-January this was particularly bad as the days were so short sometimes days felt like one long stormy evening as it was often so dark in the daytime due to a lack of sunlight that I had to turn the lights on in the house! November 2015 in particular had a distinct lack of sunny days. It was all extremely depressing sometimes as it felt like being in one long dark, wet windy tunnel and not knowing when you would reach the end and see some decent sunny weather again. Same thing in Winter 13/14. And of course, snowless for 3 years running round my parts. Hopefully next winter won't be as dire without the El Nino around.

    Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    After a bit of a break from this forum (model watching fatigue I have to admit!)  my take on the SSW is that at least it could deliver a less extreme version of March 2013 and at best a replica of March-April 2013. At least the predominantely unsettled weather day in and day out has finally hit the road after nigh on 4 months plaguing the UK as it now looks more likely according to models that a much needed settled, chiller period could be on the cards which is just what we need to dry ourselves out after the second wettest winter on record :) The Atlantic and PV also does not have as much power as it did 1-3 months ago so any Atlantic wet weather should not last as long as it did in Winter perhaps the odd unsettled days but unlikely to be weeks of rain and wind again. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Again with dread of when a cold spell is going to end but the Atlantic return is still in FI. Who knows what could happen next week? Maybe with a weakening PV the heights would have a better chance of holding their own against the Atlantic. Also it looks like possibly any Atlantic return could be a shorter period than what happened from the 21st January until the middle of this week with about 2 and a half - 3 more weeks of milder than average, wetter conditions. If the MJO gets further into a favourable phase and the Met's prediction of colder more blocked conditions from the end of February into March come to fruition we may not hav to face another barrage of named storms for weeks again.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Lol! Well the op meter met a grisly end after a poor set of outputs a few weeks back! Is this optimism as in desperate hope or gritty realism?

    I liked the GFS but not so much the ECM past T144hrs. Reading the NCEP update theres now a lot of uncertainty with the pattern there and the development of a possible low running up the ne of the USA this will effect the displaced Azores high and also energy spilling east towards the troughing to the nw of the UK.

     

    Would that give us a potential shot at cold? About time the Azores high got shafted 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    Looking at the last 2 days or so from the 500mb anomaly charts and worries about a milder Atlantic, based on is it one or more synoptic runs, seems pretty unlikely to me. See links below showing quite marked north of west flow on all 3 models in the 6-10 day and further out with NOAA in the 8-14 day time frame.  Of course the synoptic models may have a lead on the anomalies but it is quite rare.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Certainly the 500mb air on NOAA originates from USA showing about 546DM in the far south of the UK on the 6-10 day with ECMWF-GFS showing lower values and the air from over Canada. These differences in origin and predicted heights do happen, maybe NOAA will move towards the other heights. Mostly the NOAA outputs do seem to verify more often but not always. Anyway none of them show milder weather as an AVERAGE over the 6-14 day period. Day to day may well have a milder slot as a low tracks east over the Atlantic towards/over the UK.

    Great point here. No point getting hung up on individual model upgrades and downgrades when there is still uncertainty over the weekend and beyond.

    and NOAA isn't showing anything mild/milder than average

    • Like 1

    SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, John Badrick said:

     

     "measure of confidence in chillier and unsettled conditions rather than warmth, means I am certain of at least one spell with very cold weather (for the time of year) in late April or early May which will bring snowfalls to the North and night frosts across the country"

    quoted from Ian's forecast

    late April early May is  last stages of Spring is it not?

    I would consider late Spring - early Summer to be May/June so in my head, Ian P's forecast could fall within that timeframe between March and May. April more like the peak of Spring. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Typical as when a cold spell is forecast for the UK the focus then shifts towards worry over when its going to end :rofl:

    I hope things overall are starting to look drier for the future even if it warms up after this cold spell. The Jet Stream showing possible signs of finally weakening significantly in the long range output today is promising.  

    • Like 1

    SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

    I think if Ian Ps mostly cold spring forecast plays out (which is now basically the opposite to the big guns)  Hopefully more people will give him the respect he deserves. I am hoping it does play out the way he has called it, not because I want a cold spring, but because it may prove we have our very own a top class forecaster on this forum

    Ian F is suggesting it could start getting warmer than average late Spring, so Ian P's forecast for the first part of Spring could be right in some way

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yep we'll soon be at the point where only a direct Nly or NEly will be any use to the UK as insolation starts to crank above the threshold where the continent starts to warm rapidly. Makes me kind of sad thinking about that but I'm genuinely looking forward to summer now after, quite possibly, the most wretched winter I've ever experienced weatherwise.

    If Winter ends on a brief wintry high with possible snow before Spring kicks in I'll be happy. It won't make up for the horrible Atlantic weather pattern that dominated our weather throughout Winter but at least we may not have to face endless storms until the end.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    3 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes the uppers are not what we might of expected in mid February, theres a lot of cold though further East ready to pile in though if the Easterly could hang on for a while.

    I think that's down to us being at the end of Winter rather than the middle and the fact that most of the deep cold has gone to the US and China. But still more cold opportunities than what was showing last week and before coming up.

    SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    16 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    1998 was the strongest Nino and had an indifferent spring... warm March cold April average May and indifferent/cool summer..btw 2011 was very much a la nina there was no elnino that year I think you meant 09/10..im going for a warmer than average 1st half of summer and a cooler more unsettled second half.

    I think the summer of 1998 was down to the fact that the Nino got a second wind in spring - after all this was the biggest one to date. I found summer 98 to be similar to Summer 2015 - a lot of the time it was colder than average but dry (in my location) and August had some spells of decent weather. It may be remembered as a below average summer but definitely not on par with some of the autumnal horrors we had to experience in 2007/2012.

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Not much comment on the 18z ... But apart from the underwhelming snow signal over the weekend could be worse medium to extended range. At least another cold reload after the Nly early next week, followed by high pressure and not a return to Atlantic oblivion.

    At least the recently updated UKMO fax chart for Saturday nowhere near as deep as GFSwith the low to the south ... so would invite less mixing and with lighter winds more potential for evaporative cooling. GFS does have a habit of over deepening lows.

    image.thumb.png.a53fd00ec45f660c894b500e

    Agreed. Its about bleeding time the 'Atlantic oblivion' ceased so hopefully we are seeing the beginning of the light at the end of the dark wet and windy tunnel of Winter 15/16.

    The possibility of snow followed by high pressure is an outlook not to be sniffed at!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, stodge said:

     

    As others have said though, plenty of cold options on the table right through to the end of next week and, to broaden the discussion further, I was musing on a comment from someone last year about it can take up to three attempts to break down a powerful PV. Well, I make this attempt two so it's likely there'll be another reset to a more zonal pattern later this month before the final attempt perhaps at the end of the month.

    Looking outside the range of the models, I would suspect a more anticyclonic March might be on offer though whether that means warm or cold remains to be seen.

    Stodge, that would be in line with Fergie's summary on what the high res models were showing for February

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    That's even if it has much influence for UK into March (latest EC Monthly prognosis attached). Mixed GloSea5 signals by early March (whilst EC Monthly goes for -ve MSLP anomaly directly to NW, maintaining +ve PPN anomaly and a fairly cool NW-WNW-W flow). But at least the new EC Seasonal & GloSea5 output peering into later Spring to early-mid Summer both look agreeable...(keep fingers crossed!) 

    ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-T1_8GH.png

    Good news for summer?

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...