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wishingforsnow

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Posts posted by wishingforsnow

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    29 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Just to stress that the exact phrasing we used on the web outlook is for signs of "something colder" (ie relative to earlier Feb).... not "much colder", which has very different connotations. That's not to rule out the latter, but it's the not meaning intended in the current forecast.

    This possible shift in emphasis remains based on a combination of signals from GloSea5 and last Thurs' EC Monthly. Whilst both lean towards either neutral or -ve temp anomalies after mid-month, GloSea5 has shown some waxing and waning re strength/likelihood of Atlantic ridging, but this (at present) remains the more favoured possibility. We await today's prognosis from that suite but equally, whatever the next EC Monthly update produces later this evening. The next 3-monthly summary for contingency planners (from UKMO Seasonal Team) will reflect GloSea5 probabilistic output spanning Feb to April.

    Interesting update :D

    I agree, it is definitely still too early to tell what exactly is going to happen in a month's time re if/what colder conditions could arrive to our shores again and how much colder. Though its good to see that an Atlantic ridge remains a favoured option at present :)

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

    I was looking at one of the forums on US weather site and a few of the regular forum users seem quite confident that a minor SSW will displace part of PV over to Western Russia/Scandanavia which may have positive impact on colder weather for Europe and UK from early/mid February. Not saying this is going to happen but in all the "doom and gloom" in here atm from a coldies perspective just trying to show one of the many possibilities on offer. I remember end of December on here and some were foolishly almost writing off the whole of winter then and at least we had a coldish spell for 5-7 days that appeared very quickly and unexpectidly on the models so people just need to be realistic and keep perspective. We were spoilt by Dec 2010 and following couple of winters which maybe just raised peoples  expectations too much. The last 2 winters have shown that the UK is not Scandanavia or Canada and snow is not as a frequent visitor to these shores as we would like.

         

    To me it felt cold with a couple of air frosts day and night from around the 12th-21st of January so in my opinion it was a pretty decent lengthy cold spell even if it didn't deliver any snow down these parts it was still cold and dry. I believe we could see a return to that in mid February or perhaps even colder even if snow doesn't arrive down here, I would still take cold and dry.

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    A complete Strat.warming forecast has never shown so we are relying on the weakening and displacement of the PV towards Scandinavia for any chance of that Arctic cold coming south.

    We can see +ve hts.developing upstream later over Canada

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

    The hope is this feeds downstream with a weaker more amplified jet coming off the e.seaboard.

    This is after this zonal period of wet and windy weather as the PV shifts across.It is as ever it seems another hope añd wait period to see if the tropical forcings work in our favour.

     

     

    Yes, a SSW isn't the be all and end all but its a question of seeing what path the displacement follows - We still don't know the outcome of that and we also have to see how the tropical forcings progress in the coming weeks.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Not really model related but a possible SSW outcome is still being favoured as a possibility out there http://notrickszone.com/2016/01/24/sudden-stratospheric-warming-may-bring-another-cold-spell-to-western-and-central-europe-in-early-february-models-suggest/#sthash.FVZxu6T0.cGAIm8iE.dpbs

    I think we have to wait and see what the situation is early/mid February. By then I think that if a change will be on the way the models will be showing it. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

    I do love how someone just made this torpedo thing up as a bit of a hopecast and suddenly it's a thing that people are waiting for.

    'Hopecast'?

    Evidence of strat warming is in place and gaining traction in the models and whether its effect is a major/minor SSW, or displacement is yet to be seen 

    Nothing is off the table yet. Experts maintian that change could be likely on the way from mid February onwards. Until then its zonality but perhaps getting more meridional which is a good sign. A SSW isn't the only option that could come off and bring cold to the UK.

    Also a lot could change 2 and a half weeks from now weatherwise - models showing a Euro High in FI timeframe are to still be taken with a pinch of salt despite how 'a Euro high takes ages to shift'

    We're only at the 23rd January: if by this time next month the supposed 'change' hasn't materialised and it turns out we will have faced another month of mild wet zonality with no sign of improvement at all then yes this winter will have been an overall disappointment in my books but not yet. I think the models will be interesting for coldies again as we enter February should everything go to plan.

    • Like 4

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, March said:

    What are you talking about when you say we no longer get seasons and only mild filth? As far as I'm aware the UK hasn't changed climate zone. Temperate maritime = mild with 4 seasons and low extremes. This has been the case for the entire lives of everyone in this forum. Unless you have been living winter through a PC monitor watching US traffic webcams then how can you say otherwise? It can't be THAT bad up north can it? I was lucky enough to have most of the summer off and I went walking 2-3 hours every day and it was lovely 90% of the time. Wore shorts and T-shirts apart from a couple of rainy walks, had a few hot days, rarely below 19C. Never cold, only overheated a couple of times. I cannot do that in Jan, but we have no seasons right? :rofl:

    Bar the very wet final weeks of July and August, summer 2015 in the South East was decent to good, a sprinkling of very hot days - 1st July being only one and plenty of dry/warm useable weather aside however I understand further North and in Scotland it was wetter and cooler so I can understand some people's frustration and the 'no seasons' remark. 

    But too many people are jumping the gun here. Even if we did end up with a mild/wet winter til the end this year and the Strat warming failed to save us, recently Summer 2014 was decent (bar Hurricane Bertha) and that followed the mild/wet rainfest of the previous winter which had no notable cold spell at all and a very hot week in Spring (May). 

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Was sniffing around past Winters charts where things changed very quickly from dross and mild after mid February, remembered 1962, Euro high/Bartlett, then a Northwesterly followed be a severe Easterly late February/Early March. Might end up with something like this going on what Ian F has been pointing out in his posts, and not just a North Westerly toppler...some nice charts:

     

    I'm not saying this is going to happen, just illustrating how quickly things can change.

     

     

    archives-1962-2-4-0-0.png

    archives-1962-2-11-0-0.png

    archives-1962-2-13-0-0.png

    archives-1962-2-21-0-0.png

    archives-1962-2-28-0-0.png

    archives-1962-3-4-0-0.png

    Never say never! :D

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, snowking said:

    I think this is a fair point, but for me the last 7 or so years have proven two things that many members on here thought true to be quite the opposite

    1) The whole idea that even given our changing climate that the UK can't experience substantial cold (December 2010 the main candidate for this amongst others). Dare I mention the crackpot 'M.W' theory?!

    2) The idea that beyond about February 10th any chance of a major cold spell for the UK is gone. I suspect this idea was formed following the late February 2005 cold spell where we saw almost perfect synoptics (and indeed in my part of Essex at the time we saw 17 consecutive days of snowfall) but some less impressive conditions ultimately on the ground. If anyone wanted proof that this is not the case, March 2013 should hopefully shine through here.

    What we're experiencing right now appears to be what many expected all along from a 'typical' El-Nino winter - a stormy start, some moderate (albeit short) cold spells in Jan and the majority of any cold potential really backloaded. This was what the majority of winter forecasts I've seen have suggested, these were my own thoughts, these were the suggestions from the GloSea5 seasonal output we get to see via the Planners Forecast and from what I can see happening about 10km above our heads in the coming weeks this would seem the most likely direction of travel.

    Of course none of this guarantees something much colder for the UK. We're a tiny little island in the middle of a big ocean. But the notion that time is running out just because we're heading into February is not one we should let concern us :)

    SK

    I agree with everything here

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Not looking great is it? Especially after Ian's last couple of updates. We can only hope there is a sudden change in the output. Maybe the strat is our last chance to rescue this so called winter.

    At the moment not for the immediate timeframe but Ian hasn't ruled out an eventual change and neither have the events in the stratosphere where warming seems to be well underway. The renewed mobility and milder weather could be a result of the warming process progressing to displace or split the vortex coupled with events in the US. Its a waiting game but hopefully one that will pay off in the end. 

    • Like 2

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    Things continue to look interesting up in the Strat then. Considering the time frame in which a SSW could happen and when the effects could be felt, early/mid February isn't off the table as far as I'm concerned. Which is why I'm not too bothered with the current model outputs for the rest of January into February, by that time if all goes to plan we could be looking at some wintry conditions arriving again ... Provided the split/displacement follows the correct path to benefit us.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    After these GFS runs we can only hope that the ECM is the form horse for the coming period end of January into February as it seems to be the lesser of 2 evils at the moment as we face another Atlantic dominated weather period for a while: bringing less volatile, mild conditions and with a quicker improvement towards building blocking at the end of the run. Especially beneficial towards North Western regions where the last thing anyone wants is to be plunged back into floods just when they are starting to put their homes and lives back together.

    Although, it has to be said that strat warming is proving a remarkably consistent signal on the models and perhaps the ends of the runs are starting to show the beginning of the result of whatever could happen to the PV? Atlantic domination waning again mid February? Blocking? Still a lot to play for. 

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

    Couldn't agree more. Fact is a massive (hopefully) SSW Is underway and 90% have already got the flip flops out for summer. Models are confused as anything at the moment and the mean data Is next to useless due to the massive swings in the numerous permutations, my money is definitely not on the mean :) 

    Yes and regardless of what is happening in the USA amplifying the jet, should a SSW occur it could mean that the cold will arrive over here too. It's just a matter of patience and seeing if and when it will pay off but the periststence of strat warming is what's giving me hope we will see a change unlike 2013-14 when the snowy cold winter for them (which had been cold since the start) meant a mild wet winter for us with no sign of a SSW possibility to rescue us.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    5 minutes ago, Drifty said:

    It's like reading posts from years past! Cold u.s firing the jet! More floods more wind! More government money's for flood hit victims! More pictures of submerged cars! This time last year cold snap, no more bit of snow! Few frosts! Then same for another 12 months! It's easy! Face it folks are climate has changed to boring, seasons into 1! Give it 4 months, I predict same temp same precip the lot as today!!

    I think people are going a bit stir crazy regarding the recent output and what is happening in the US at the moment.

    Seriously calling every season to be wet, mild and rainy throughout?:rofl: 

    Yes it doesn't look good for us at the moment if we want more cold and settled weather before February. We established that. But we still have to see if the impact of the US will mean that it stays mild and wet until Spring or if there is a chance of change as we move into February. 

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Drifty said:

    Ssw is never compelling imo! Rather a stab in the dark for people losing their minds when the models don't strike out at them! I believe cherry picking is the word! The charts at the minute are dire! Give it 72 hrs the model output thread will be alive once more!!!! Hopefully!

    Then why is there a good consensus for a potential SSW growing and with support from experts? I wouldn't say its a 'stab in the dark' exactly as its possibly getting more likely in the reliable time frame but we still have to see whether it will actually play out and with favourable results.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow

    1 minute ago, joggs said:

    El nino winters in ne USA generally mild first half,2/3 then colder late on.

    Sorry off topic 

    Also BBC's video on 'what does the rest of winter have in store' mentioned that as a possibility for the UK too. So we now have to see if the models will reflect any big change into February and whether the final part of winter will deliver for cold and snow in the UK like 2013 as a recent example or will it be mild and wet dross until we're just waiting for the first bit of Spring high pressure to dry us out again (like in March 2014).

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, BristolBaggie said:

    Well that's it then! 

    To be fair though, Ian's update suggests that whatever happens beyond early-mid February is anyone's guess. Maybe it will be unsettled until then but if the SSW/displacement does happen in the meantime a change from the middle to end of February cannot be ruled out. We have to wait and see what happens.

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