wishingforsnow
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Posts posted by wishingforsnow
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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Yes its good they prefer the ECM solution but sometimes consistency can mean consistently wrong! lol
The UKMO would be okay if it had a weaker low pressure further south near the UK at T144hrs. The GFS is beyond redemption and if that verified I'd be close to throwing the towel in.
Didn't ECM model January's cold spell better than the GFS overall?
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6 minutes ago, John Badrick said:
Unfortunately, according to some that ain't gonna happen, possible cold, wet and windy Spring on the cards
I think its a bit early to call the entire spring cold wet and windy from an initial long range forecast/prediction. For instance it now looks like the cold second half to Winter didn't materialise so who knows what will actually happen in Spring. I don't think it will be as wet as Winter was anyway.
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It is the winter equivalent of Summer 2012 when from April to September people were searching for any sign of a change from a locked in pattern of wind and rain and Atlantic lows with charts showing hot weather that never materialised, a potential pattern change being hyped up as a 'heatwave' which eventually dowgraded and lasted around a week (Late July 2012) and then back to the norm of rain rain rain for August until September. The recent cold spell of January reminded me of this.
So considering that trajectory, in situations like this these weather patterns. last for month and eventually something has to give. And it theoretically should once we get into Spring as the troposphere changes and there is also the potential for the AAM which Singualrity has mentioned. A Westerly mobile Atlantic dominated set up will not be a barrage of storms for much longer.
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I suppose the only comfort is that sooner or later the Atlantic will tire out and it is getting closer to that point, I think with Spring progressing we are bound to see longer spells of drier weather as opposed to Winter. For what its worth I would rather be experiencing a locked in pattern of Atlantic lows and wet weather from November to March rather than in April - September like in 2007/2012.
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But taking into account the AAM as Singularity pointed out and the fact that the PV will get weaker and weaker, realistically how much longer can an Atlantic dominated weather set up prevail?
I think spring will start off unsettled if February really does turn out to be a stormy month throughout and gradually improve as the Atlantic quietens down and that we may see more rainfall but sporadically especially in the South with longer interludes of drier, useable (but perhaps colder in the North and Scotland) weather. But I don't see Spring being the relentless onslaught of storms and gales that Winter mostly was/is.
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19 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
There's a key issue here: UKMO don't issue seasonal forecasts. They issue *probabilistic assessments* spanning 3-month periods. These have been pretty accurate the last two winters since GloSea5 was introduced. This winter (D-J-F) called for mild, often wet/windy weather 1st half; greater (but not definitive) potential for colder weather 2nd half, with Feb the only month in output more likely to see -ve temp anomalies *but* this reliant on SSW, all set against El Niño signature and W'rly QBO. So far, these broadscale pointers have proved a good guide since November, and it's worth noting commercial forecast organisations (eg WSI, MeteoGroup, Metra etc) all had fairly similar expectations across this season. I actually think this winter has been a pretty good one for seasonal forecast specialists and for key tools, eg EC Seasonal/EUROSIP/GloSea5.
I agree Ian, so far this winter has been pretty well forecasted. The predictions from more than one major forecasting centre based on model outputs and background signals such as El Nino did call for a predominantely mild, wet and unsettled winter and they were spot on.
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24 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:
Hope I'm not off topic, but long range forecasts… are really useless, how many times have the MET OFFICE said mild winters ( especially the winters of 09 and 10 ) and look how they turned out!! even there summer ones, I'm sure they have a hat ( for summer or winter )… with 9 mild and 1 cold outlook W… and 1 wet n cool, 9 hot n dry outlook S!!… a chart is only as good as the input, that's put into it!! A week is a long time I weather… and the weather will only do, whatever it does!! It will and does change… a chart for me, what it shows 2day… for a week later, if it shows 75% of what it shows 2/3days later… will be probably be right!! But if not… then start again
Ive always felt the MET OFFICE to be mild rampers, no matter what… but so is MADDEN the cold ramper!! But he will get 1 right, eventually lol
Ps... I say this about long range or medium range because some are throwing the towel in… with still alot of winter left and they will change whether it will be the holy grail cold n snow… or the bloody boring mild… mucka seems to have perked up a bit, when it seemed the towel had been chucked in…
Most recently Summer 2012 and Winter 13/14 were both forecasted initially to be respectively hotter and colder than average, dry and settled and look how those turned out.
Long range forecasts are only indicative of what signals at the moment could lead to regarding the weather, but these can always change just as much as the models and the weather itself.
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2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:
a general observation......why do people take long range or even mid range modelling as gospel?........like many others, I've read Ian's posts pertaining to the meto's models and mid range/seasonal models (and value his input as well as several other knowledgeable posters) but I've noticed that even the meto's models chop and change as they're all computer sims reliant on the initial data entered.............The weather will do what the weather will do, no computer simulation will influence the outcome 1, 2, 5, 10, or even 100 days from now......so "winter's over" type posts are utterly irrelevant......by all means discuss all the model outputs, after all, this is what the thread is about, but don't take the predicted output as gospel, 'nailed on' etc etc, or you'll drive yourself mad!
(I used to, and look at state of me now.....barking mad! )
Agreed. Lets not forget that the models and long range outputs this time last month were predicting a January that would be as zonal, mild and stormy as December was throughout with no chance of any pattern change whatsoever and in the end we managed a 10 day anticyclonic cold spell which none of the models or long range forecasts were initially picking up and a decent length period of weather with no storms. So you never know what could happen with regards to long range forecasts and the eventual weather.
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11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.
Thanks for the clarification Ian
Oh well, seeing as we're only 2 days into the new month we'll just have to see if any cold signal reappears especially with regards to the MJO.
My understanding is that the current reason for the cold signal being dropped is that the outlook at present for the strat warming looks to be minor according to the models and not a 'game changer.' I think its still a case of wait and see for now what will unfold in regards to the strat and any impact of the MJO as we progress into February. Things could still end up very different 3-4 weeks from now, or not.
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16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
hopefully signs of a dry out, as Fergie has mentioned in updates for mid Feb, hopefully a start on GFS
At this point I'm not really too fussed about cold but I'm hopeful at least for drier weather as the month progresses. The Atlantic should bd quietening down overall by the end of February and into March. Any cold or significant cold is a bonus to me now.
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So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?
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9 minutes ago, Snow phall said:
Can anyone hazard a guess about when the El nino will fade away this year (if at all).
Historically what type of weather patterns follows a severe El nino?
Will we see a decent summer followed by a decent winter etc,or is this just how our Winters will be in the Northern hemisphere for the foreseeable future?
I've seen recent articles where it has been suggested it is possible that a transition to La Nina could occur in late Summer/early Autumn given the strength of the current El Nino. If that was the case then I would think if there is a neutral period between Nino and Nina around spring and summer and La Nina does indeed not develop until late summer/early autumn as has been suggested by some, I would say there would be more of a chance of a warm summer. There were even suggestions in the past week that the Nino could get another wind and strengthen further so who knows.
A transition to Nina in the spring/summer on the other hand could mean the summer ends up cooler but not necessarily wetter.
All in all it depends on how quickly the Nino weakens and in turn the Nina develops.
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On 31 January 2016 at 9:52 PM, damianslaw said:
The period from early Feb- mid April 13 was also preety impressive with only shortlived milder synoptics, a very locked in colder pattern. Likewise mid Nov - late Dec 10 saw a locked in cold pattern with a very shortlived milder blip around 12 Dec only.
Many of the summers between 07-12 saw a locked in cold pattern as well with northern heights in abundance.
The past 10 years have seen a propensity for either cold or mild locked in patterns, the Jetstream has been highly amplified for long periods - this winter is unusual in this respect as well, and it looks like staying, locked in cold patterns most likely will occur in the years ahead.
Yes and there seems to be a cluster of years cropping up with a 'locked' seasonal pattern for instance the Springs and Autumns of 2007-2012 (March-May and September - November) were defined by long periods with a northerly tracking jetstream, high pressure and warm, even hot summer like weather but the summers of 07-12 on the other hand had a locked in Atlantic driven weather pattern which pushed the jet south and saw cooler and often wetter than average conditions. But the winters of that period saw more in the way of blocked, colder and often snowy conditions, and there was even snow in April on the south coast once.
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I will only 'throw the damn towel' if it gets up to 2 weeks time and there has been consistent cross model consensus for no improvement after cold FI synoptics fail to materialise and in the case of it becoming clear that any cold spell from mid February won't happen & the Met Office and Ian should say that there's absolutely no chance of cold conditions anymore. In the meantime I would advise not to get too hung up on a single model run that either shows mild or cold as these can change. Only if it becomes a clear pattern over a week or so.
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At least changes in the weather pattern during February will mean a weakened PV and jetstream meaning eventually the depressions won't be firing at us constantly from the Atlantic as they have done for most of this winter. This should in theory provide a greater chance of sustained blocked drier conditions even if its not particularly cold - I think this is what Ian F was alluding to in his update where 'a mobile southwesterly flow may resume temporarily,' the state of the atmosphere by then should ensure that this time it won't be a prolonged weather pattern should it return as opposed to further back during winter.
I know this winter is frustrating for coldies but many of us are probably looking forward to the pattern change from constant stormy wet windy conditions we have endured for months finally arriving. And the days are getting longer
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There is definitely a lot of model confusion right now. Uncertainty still as to the mid February outcome: we could see anything from a prolonged cold spell possibly helped by a SSW to a mere short toppler sandwiched between southwesterlies, zonality and the raging Atlantic. Hopefully the positive trend towards colder conditions building continues and the solution to this currently murky picture is a blocked sustained cold pattern to end a mostly terrible Winter.
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34 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
I don't want to sound like a pointless optimist, but what we're experiencing now is probably nothing more than a temporary pattern in terms of seasonal variability. It seems that season types usually come in clusters and we have simply been in a bad one (for cold and snow fans) since 2013. The same goes for Summer. A more seasonal Summer and or Winter will crop up eventually and there may even be more than one at a time. Going back to Winter 2012/13 it closely followed three other recent cold Winters (excluding Winter 2011/12 which delivered only briefly locally but was much colder on the continent) and was obviously the last in that particular cluster. There was also a fairly good run (more so than others) of pleasant to hot Summers in the 00s pre 2007. Then there was also a run of rather damp and coolish Summers from then till 2012 followed by a decent enough Summer in 2013 and a more mixed one (which had a hot spell) in 2014. This rut were in as far as Winter is concerned won't last forever and sooner or later I'm fairly sure we will break out of it. There was much talk in the 00s of how global warming scuppered cold Winters forever but the late 00s to early 10s proved otherwise. After all the coldest December since 1890 (120 years before 2010) and the coldest March since 1962 (51 years before 2013) would have been laughed at by some as fantasy before they in fact happened. And being as 2013 was only 3 years ago (which is nothing) I don't believe climate has suddenly shifted in that time to the point of no return.
Agreed. That 'point of no return' conclusion was also parroted during the period of 2007-12 where we had years of consecutive poor summers, by Summer 2012 it was the same knee jerk reaction; people were saying that the UK's climate had changed so much that summers had become wet and cool and that we were unlikely to experience a heatwave any time soon. Interestingly during that period there was also a correlation for Summer like conditions in Spring and colder conditions in Winter.
And then Summer 2013 happened and since then the subsequent summers so far haven't been as bad as they were from the late 00s-early 10s ... Well in my location at least, I understand 2015 was mostly a north south split of good and bad. So I am going out on a limb here to say that out of this cluster of consecutive nondescript, at times mild and unseasonable winters sooner or later a more seasonable one will pop up. But the UK's climate hasn't altered in such a way to prevent one happening.
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A bit of jumping the gun in here. To be fair Ian, and the Met at the moment don't have a straightforward outcome right now as to how the rest of winter and early spring could play out. It seems to me from Ian's latest update and the models regarding the Strat that there is just as much uncertainty over the possibility of a full split/displacement and colder, drier blocked conditions continuing into February and March as there is of a temporary displacement of the vortex with a short cold period and westerlies/Atlantic dominated weather returning (which is pretty much what happened recently this month) Not one outcome is more likely or certain at the moment, but I suppose we have to hope the dice rolls in our favour to finally get the sustained, drier and perhaps colder weather from a SSW to finally end this prolonged period of generally unsettled weather. But that update just confirms to me that nothing is set in stone at the moment.
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A split jet stream has been hinted in long term forecasts recently. Lets see if it materialises.
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To me, I don't think a mid Atlantic ridge will form until we're into February but its good to see some potentially promising stuff in the models again
and a bit of optimism returning into this thread after the doom and gloom and underwhelming outputs of last week. Hopefully the start of a new trend rather than a backtrack the following day.
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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:
When I viewed the ecm tonight, I immediately thought about the brilliant posts by Singularity over the last few days. He has been at pains to stress that the synoptics shown by ecm tonight could well become a reality during the first week of Feb - even though the output has been showing the exact opposite over the last week or so. A big thumbs up to him if this comes off.
Also 'Stormchaser' over on TWO although I wonder if they are the same person
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To be honest, any model after the 4th February or even models for the 4th February are in the 'unreliable' range at the moment in my opinion
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1 minute ago, Banbury said:
He changes his mind so much , don't take that much notice
Agreed. I don't think CFS is very reliable for a long range model either.
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I think what we have to look for is if and when the heights over Europe will be lowered again coupled with what is going on with the tropical forcing. If the heights continue to stay strong over Europe well into February then the best we can hope for is cold incursions as opposed to a proper period of colder weather but if the tropical forcing progresses in our favour then we could get another cold spell. To be fair at the moment the 'experts' only have a vague idea of what may or may not happen regarding next month. With luck things will work in our favour and we can get another period of colder weather from the middle of next month as opposed to this notion losing support over time and eventually dropped as the output gets worse. Hopefully not, as at the moment this is the only notion keeping some coldies from writing off the winter altogether and it would be nice to get another possibly longer period of seasonal weather at the end of Winter to make up for all the zonality.
(I used to, and look at state of me now.....barking mad! 
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and a bit of optimism returning into this thread after the doom and gloom and underwhelming outputs of last week. Hopefully the start of a new trend rather than a backtrack the following day.
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
GFS is always late to the party isn't it?
Seriously I really hope the models are onto something and that the ECM continues from this run with UKMO and GFS following suit preferably. Though as we saw in January, getting cross model agreement can be exhausting to watch at times when picking out developing trends if one model is against another.