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Methuselah

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Posts posted by Methuselah

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As predicted (and expected), the METO site is slow on the uptake. I can only assume there's a big conflab going on this weekend before they start pushing out some advance warnings. Let's see what Countryfile says for next week !!!

    I guess it's down to snow being so marginal? Afterall, the difference between rain, sleet and snow can be a very fine balance...I don't see how anyone can really expect the MetO to 'stick its neck out' just yet - all of the models are still in the upgrade-downgrade flip-flop mode. I don't expect that to change?? :unsure: :unsure:

    Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I hope you all have your thermal underwear ready for next week guys, checkout the Metcheck forecast fro London for a week today:

    Weather Forecast in London for Friday 18 December

    Location InformationSun InformationMoonToolsLat : 51.5NLon : 0.1WASL : 15mRise : 8:00 GMTSet : 15:51 GMT.gif-- Select -- Print Forecast SMS Forecasts Weather Sticky Metric/Imperial Videos google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);DayFromUntilTempFeelsUVRainCloudDirSpeedGustWeatherFri 18 Dec0:002:59-4 °c-23 °c00.0 mm8 %WNW.gif300 mph360 mphNFA.gif3:005:59-4 °c-22 °c00.0 mm21 %W.gif268 mph321 mphNFA.gif6:008:59-3 °c-20 °c00.0 mm82 %WNW.gif282 mph338 mphNPC.gif9:0011:592 °c-14 °c00.0 mm83 %WNW.gif286 mph343 mphPC.gif12:0014:592 °c-15 °c10.0 mm13 %W.gif276 mph331 mphFA.gifnext_7.gif

    Bit breezy don't you all think? rofl.gif

    Are we expecting a snow tornado?? help.gif

    Some 'nice' windchill??? :):):cold::)

    Leaky Integrator Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Hmmm...I'll have to have a think about that one! The arrow of time wouldn't hold up at the (sub-)atomic level because all of the processes involved are time-reversible. At that level, the only two processes involved are emission and absorption - reverse those processes and you have absorption and emission respectively.

    <snip!>

    smile.gif

    CB

    EDIT - I wrote something dumb! Oopsie!

    That would imply (I think?) that hysteresis cannot operate at the subatomic scale??? :help:

    Leaky Integrator Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Thanks CB...Good stuff!!! :good:

    Is that the mechanism of hysteresis...if so it makes sense (to me) both in terms of QMS and SMS...And, it's bloody good revision!! :good:

    Just a quickie?? When you chose the names Tom, Dick and Harry - were you alluding to Quantum Tunneling?? :oops:

    Time for a Great Escape, methinks... :nonono::nonono: :blush: :blush: :fool:

    Anyhoo. Good work, guys! :D

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    looks like weather online update are picking up on a prolonged cold outlook.

    Looks like the cold spell may be with us for quite a while with frigid temperatures later next week. :cold:

    'Morning badboy... :good:

    Please can you put these posts in the 'Cold Spell' discussion - it's not really much about models?? :cold::cold::good::cold:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A polite request: :lol:

    With things going mad on the forum, we are having to be rather ruthless in our deletion of 'one-line wonders'!

    If you all put said posts in the appropriate threads, we'd have more time to read short posts (in here) to see if they're relevant, rather than just binning them??? :)

    Help us to help you!!! :lol:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Forgive me, not trying to be antagonistic, but who says the ECM is wrong - it can't be yet - can it?

    'TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA

    HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES UPPER LEVEL

    TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER

    THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD

    OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICT MORE

    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH DEPICTS

    A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT TREND TOWARD AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN,

    WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

    THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL

    U.S. IN ADDITION, THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z

    DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION'.

    Posted above by CC!!!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think we just have to accept that beyond 96Z a variety of things could happen beyond 168Z, you could pick any cold scenario you wanted and it would probably be shown by a run at some point. However the likelyhood of cold continuing seems to be growing, snow will happen at various places at somepoint and Monday/Tuesday is a bl00dy good start !.

    I do suspect that that is all anyone can really say, Ice...

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