Methuselah

Oops! I meant as late as October. Back in the Good-old-Days, the first frost often occurred in September...

How things have changed...peeps getting all excited about frost in October? Anywho, it's bright and 6.2C.

So it could (should sufficient amplification occur in the right place) perhaps increase continental cooling by a further 0.5C, over and above whatever the meandering PFJ produces...?

Does the total incoming solar-radiation (W/m^2) not reduce at deep solar minima?

If I'm assessing things correctly, there ought be two effects: the direct effect of UV on the PFJ, leading to meandering and/or high-latitude blocking events; and the lagged effect due to thermal lag, causing God-knows-what? There's no denying that a period of great interest is incoming.

Please, no? A 'cracking' spell of cold and windy filth, with an outside chance of sleet, might be in store...

Indeed...the dice are somewhat loaded? And not in James Madden's favour, either.

Thanks guys.

What's the actual number of winters for which the correlation holds, feb?

100%? Yeah, right.

Utterly irrelevant IMO - it's still only early October, for God's sake!

One of those might be the odds against Spurs beating Barca, tonight?

Just for interest's sake, is there any data out there that suggest a correlation between NH snow-/ice-cover, on November 30, and the subsequent winter? After all, snow that accumulates during October has a good while in which to disappear...

Do you always blame somebody else?

What 'bias' is that? The sort that enables me to both extract data from a graph and interpret the word 'currently'? currently ˈkʌrəntli/ adverb at the present time. "the EC is currently attempting greater economic integration"

You have the patience of a saint, Sam...Do you ever get the idea that you are deliberately being sidetracked, into discussing the polysemous nature of certain words?

It might be misleading to those who can't understand it, I suppose... Then again, you might be attempting to use an 'argument from incredulity'? Who knows, when folks start playing silly buggers with words?

It's like a Schwinn Cycle only better!?

IMO Fred, that's the fault of the media, who routinely distil/oversimplify complex phenomena into easily-misunderstood soundbites and/or lies. Then again, they do a similar thing with the so-called 'forecasts' provided by the likes of Madden & Corbyn, each spring and autumn; every year (as though they were saying something profound) they repeat the same old garbage under the same old hackneyed headline. I guess they think their readership has the attention-span of a goldfish...? They might well be right!

I must be psychic, Fred. I was sure I'd read that post yesterday...

Given the fact that some of the expectations, in here, are getting a tad extreme, is it really any surprise that some of the more ludicrous media 'forecasts' have cited NW as a source?

I think it was also at or around a time of very high sunspot activity?

I know that many folks want to see a repeat of 1963 asap (it might happen and it might not) but, who's to say that the meandering jet won't cause an increase in the frequency of long, hot summers, instead? IMO, the dice may well be not loaded in the same was as they were in the run-up to the last Grand Minimum...

Oh no...Not another 'pause'?

Another stonker: 21.4C and wall-to-wall sunshine.