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Everything posted by Seasonality
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, when the purple headed yogurt slinger is pulled the right way then it will spit cold at the UK. Nice 144 chart. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just needs to be pulled the right way for long enough to spit some cold. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Is 168 back? I thought the US govt shutdown had stopped it updating. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes a good one. Good cold air over Europe, vortex shifting nicely. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think its that far FI on GFS is so far out it tends to show very varying solutions, so it does spit out quite a few extremes within that broad range. Check out a really spaghettified ensemble set and there is everything including the kitchen sink and a set of matching units and worktop. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The vortex is not a happy bunny with that high pressure right over the pole! -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@IDO are you ok? Has someone hacked your account? An FI cold ramp of the 06z GFS!!!??? For sake of fun I do like the 06z. After a brief milder blip the cold re-intensifies over Europe in FI. With plenty of snow to boot. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sorry mate. Just teasing. The ECM at day 10 actually looks OK hemispherically. Vortex not a happy chappy. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So in other words you make up a definition to fit your statement Very 'alternative facts' Meant in the nicest way possible. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My thoughts are that some like to say "Oh it won't snow! Teh eksperts are rong and noe nuthing!", for the simple reason that it's playing the odds. Much of the UK tends towards mild, maritime weather so statements like above are right more often than not. There's no intelligence, insight or expertise applied though, just a sort of stopped clock type prediction success but 9 out of the 12 numbers are the same. There is though real expertise in accurately and scientifically forecasting deviations from the norm. -
Snowing for the past couple of hours. A rare fail for the UKMO which didn't predict precipitation at all but accurate work by the Polish Met Office. I mean, knowing the size of Poland that's hardly a small chunk of precipitation as shown here on the radar. With live weather conditions.
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The shifting of the polar vortex and the resulting deep troughing into Europe looks very tasty on this ECM run. A good example of where you don't need hlb for cold. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ha, ha. Don't say that! The UK so often seems to have some anti cold sorcery so that it will 'avoid' beyond all odds. You'll jinx it -
Weather in the Czech Republic
Seasonality replied to stainesbloke's topic in Weather Around The World
Welcome to the Central Europe club mate. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Lol, GFS. For my location UKMO says the temperature won't rise above 0 from now until end of its output. I know which I'd trust and that isn't just because it shows cold, even if it was the other way around I'd still trust Exeter's output. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Genuinely frustrating for UK weather fans currently. UKMO shows cold well entrenched into Central and South-East Europe and pushing into the med and as far as France at times. Meanwhile stubborn high pressure and warmer uppers continue to plague the UK apart from a brief toppling interlude. I still feel mid-month will be the time. Bucketing down with snow here at the moment. A couple of webcam shots to enjoy. -
Winter taking itself more seriously this year. 10-15cm expected overnight and more in outlying areas. Won't be melting any time soon either.
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sounds good to me too, but just wait for the posts saying "O noe. It carnt be proper snow in Febrary coz the sun iz too strong. It haz to be Desember!! Zomg, winter iz over" -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Has the govt shutdown in murka affected GFS FI? -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm getting some very shortly, light snow this afternoon then turning heavier tomorrow morning. -
The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
Seasonality replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sadly you're right Nick, and the professionals like you get undeserved criticism for not predicting with 100% accuracy local scale conditions. It's a fundamental lack of understanding of forecasting in general.