MattStoke

GFS is the model I trust least in these situations, and not just because I hope it's wrong

GFS is always the worst performing model in this situations. Doesn't mean it's definitely wrong this time but it doesn't give one much confidence in it's output.

We have a warning.

ICON is absolutely rubbish. Rain away from the highest parts of the Peak District.

Softly softly, catchee monkey.

CoventryWeather GEM is really the only one to deliver nothing. By the law of sod, it’ll probably end up right. That or the GFS snow to rain.

Lukesluckybunch

sheikhy it’s one of the few models that actually tends to under do snow accumulation. Rarely shows any for me even when I get plastered.

UKV out for Thursday.

Snowy ECM for central areas. Similar to Arpege and UKMO, and the GFS but that turns the snow to rain. GEM just blasts through milder air.

Models look to be converging on a snow event for central areas, so Midlands the sweet spot. Although, still some uncertainty as the GEM is too far north and the GFS has snow turning to rain. UKMO, ECM and Arpege all give widespread snow, with around 15cm in the most favoured spots.

I’d grab the Arpege 18z with both hands. GFS gives a dumping, too, but quickly turns to rain.

Nice ECM for central areas.

Snowy ECM.

Snow restricted to the north/north west of the region on the UKMO. Tend to find its snow charts are particularly poor, though.

sheikhy Good for the north/north West Midlands. I find the UKMO snow charts to be particularly poor, though.

GFS and GEM too far north but UKMO is much further south.

Nice Arpege.

WeatherArc Can’t rub in their faces. It’ll melt by the time we bring it down to them

Nice ECM. I wonder how many in the model forum will again be hoping this ends up south of the UK to leave many areas dry and boring before it turns milder later. Or maybe they’ll finally have learned their lesson.

A rather wintry GFS 0z.

Nice GFS 6z, with snow risk starting as early as Wednesday night and continuing into next Friday.

Throw in the UKMO, too.

Come to papa!

raz.org.rain Some do make OTT, sensationalised claims, but not all and I’m fed up with people giving me stick for being ‘one of them’ every time I show interest in weather records. The irony is that those giving out such stick all repeat exactly the same lines whilst claiming to be free thinkers.