MattStoke

Yes. The low looks further north than previous runs from what I can tell.

Models continuing to trend the low southwards meaning many are left hoping on smaller, more localised and more marginal features to pop up at short notice. Illogical that this is better for snow chances despite the consensus in the model thread that it is. Locations like mine might see showers through the Cheshire gap depending on exact wind direction, and then the possibility of one or two small features moving west to east later in the week but many more sheltered areas may see little or nothing.

It is a bit further north but it barely made it into the UK on the 12z.

GFS, ECM and GEM means all show precipitation across the Midlands from the mid week low so it may not be over yet.

ECM brings through a little feature later next week. A northerly with snow showers down windward coasts, a low missing to the south, and a small feature bringing snow from the west into the North Midlands. It’s giving me deja vu from November.

GEM does actually bring snow from Wednesday’s system across the Midlands but it looks light away from the south. Then another system moves in ftom the west and gives snow on Thursday. On Friday a 3rd system brings snow up from the south. It’s the sort of model run I dream about but that never verifies.

All snow charts are useless at this range but it's nice to dream.

Never fear, the GEM has nailed it. It has several systems bringing snow despite the first low missing the Midlands.

Doesn't bring in much milder air either, so snow would remain for a while.

GEM too.

This afternoon's model runs so far shift next week's snow risk into southern areas but too far south for much of the Midlands. Joy abounds in the model thread. They're definitely not biased, though.

Yep, which further shows that low pressure coming in doesn't necessarily spell the end of a cold spell and so we should all wish for a drier setup with marginal, localised snowfalls instead, but trying to get people in that thread to understand that is like talking to a brick wall.

Yep. Like November, thank goodness we miss a potential significant and widespread snow event and are instead left hoping on localised, more marginal snowfalls before the mild air arrives. Bang goes the theory that such lows heading south will leave us in a prolonged beast from the east type scenario.

Anyway, the UKV shows the first small feature next week that could give snow for the north of the region. You can see that it pivots back on itself, so it could then bring in further snow later into Tuesday. Most models have a few small features moving southward next week but show them dying out as they do so. UK must be showing further snow next Wednesday as the Met Office automated forecast shows snow for me and I think that uses UKV data.

Same. Smaller features can pop up, and my location is often one to benefit, but the vast majority of places don't see them or seen rain/sleet because colder air is needed for convective snow.

Yep. Ironic that it has it turning milder after the low heads south into France. 99% of the UK left snowless again, but the snow missing us is somehow good for snow/cold lovers

Trended slightly further south than the 12z. That’ll probably continue and then people can rejoice that we’ve missed out on a major, widespread snow event and are instead left hoping on hit and miss showers because at least London won’t see rain and the cold air won’t be dislodged even though the cold air would flood back in on the back of the system anyway. Same happened back in late November and the south saw nothing in the end before it turned milder, yet people don’t learn. I actually got a good dumping though so oh well

GFS updating. We’ll know it’s snowy for the Midlands if it’s labelled as ‘terrible’ or good for the south if it’s labelled as ‘good for all’. Hopefully in here I won’t get told off for pointing out the nonsense that goes on in that thread.

Must be. The GFS raw data is in fact even colder for my location Probably because it has deep snow cover from the mid week low which likely won’t happen.

I’ve never before seen that app show such extremes. Even when one of the main computer models throws out extreme output. Wonder what model it uses.

Just going to read the model thread from now on. No more commenting. Really annoying overly emotional people in there.

From experience, fronts in this sort of setup often end up further south than initially modelled, and the majority of models take that front down into France so that would be my bet at the moment.

Happy people to the north of me. Sad people to the south. Here I am, stuck in the Midlands without a clue. This is what irks me. If people are going to call output ‘terrible’ or ‘brilliant’, they should really state where for instead of making it sound like it’s terrible/brilliant for all. Safest bet would be on the low mid next week skirting through France. It’s what the majority of the model output suggests, it’s what happens the majority of the time, and the GFS in particular tends too deepen such systems too much and push them north as a result. Actual outcome won’t though be resolved for days and so big swings in modelling should be expected.

Yes but beyond next week.

Should though shunt away southward next frame.