MattStoke

Rain in the far south. Snow Midlands northwards.

Just a dusting really.

No snow in the far south on the GFS 12z, so it must be an awful run for us all

Time to get excited

What if they're colder and more snowy?

Is there a Greeland High anomaly? It's hard to tell

Slight tongue in cheek

C3S seasonal model update for February looks OK.

The bias in there really irritates me, and people completely deny that it exists and that anyone pointing it out is themselves being biased. Eugh. Much prefer frontal snow, personally. Higher risk but you don't need deeply cold air and the snowfall is often more substantial and widespread, but some seem to think it automatically makes a return to raging south westerly and so would rather stay dry and hope for small, more marginal and more localised features to pop up, which simply isn't true. Seen fronts bring snow and leave the UK in cold air numerous times. Always a bit disappointed when fronts trend away from the UK in these setups.

Latest GFS leaves our region dry next week, so large uncertainty.

I'm sure many in here will agree this is the best outcome for 'all' because it brings snow to the south east Common conception is that frontal snow is bad because it always means a return to mild weather, which simply isn't true. Plus, frontal snow doesn't need as cold an airmass as convective snow. Just things that frustrate me in this forum. It would though be surprising if there weren't other smaller features popping up in such an unstable and messy looking flow. They're just always likely to be more localised and often but not always smaller amount of snow than from a front.

Mid week low clearly much further south on the 6z vs the 0z. A colder and much drier (For southern areas) run. Less exciting in terms of snow prospects, discounting any small features that won't be modelled at such range.

Bearing in mind that fronts can produce snow with 850hpa temperatures as high as 0'C under the right surface conditions. More wiggle room than with convective snow.

Nice ECM again this morning. GFS has numerous snow chances too next week. Certainly the risk of something significant but impossible to call this far out.

It shows 24 hours of continuous snowfall for quite a large area. May be overdone and may well not play out like that but it doesn’t mean that GFS run is terrible just because this forum is full of southern bias.

Oh but it does for many.

It's also often though not always the case that these lows end up further south than initially modelled, so if anything those in the south would almost want lows to be modelled fairly far north this far out.

Model highlights thread shows only the most informative posts based on reactions.

GFS similar but a little further north so naturally the consensus in here is that it's terrible.

Bemusing at times in here. GFS 6z looks better to me than the 0z. Just not as good as other models. Yet the latter gets labelled as 'terrible' where the former didn't.

Spot on.

Eyes on next week. High risk, high reward scenario. In addition to Atlantic lows ‘bumping’ into cold air, we may also see small disturbances in the north to north west flow.

Can’t believe the cold air has yet again been pushed back from the 15th to the 15th:

According to the UK, they are.