MattStoke
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Everything posted by MattStoke
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Temperature barely above freezing at a time of year when the sunlight is very weak and yet frost and dusting of snow has all gone.
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Snow warnings removed for me Actually, still under a warning for Thursday.
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Amazing how such cold air moving over anomalously warm sea and with low heights is producing so few showers.
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ICON brings some snow across the Midlands late Wednesday.
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A tiny dusting in Stoke-on-Trent.
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Much fewer showers showing on this afternoon’s run.
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A pretty cool week on the GFS raw data.
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Could be an ice day here tomorrow. Models and automated forecasts show a high of 0°C.
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Snow warning for the north West Midlands on Wednesday and Thursday. Not convinced I’ll see much but worth a watch.
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ICON 6z further south
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I’ll give you another straw with the GEM mean
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Big jump northward of Wednesday’s front on the GFS.
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Snow chances diminishing with every model run.
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At least snow from the mid week low looks likely to miss the UK so we inevitably end up colder for longer with a raging easterly and showers packing in its place. Oh wait…..
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Teleconnections do not tell you fine detail like snow risk. They tell you the bigger picture.
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Interesting. Some models do develop a trough through the Irish Sea. Trouble is, it also cuts off the shower risk and might die out before reaching our region.
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
MattStoke replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
From the trough tracking through the North Sea, before anyone gets the wrong idea -
How different the field of meteorology would be if weather prediction were that straight forward.
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Front clearly disrupting up against the high pressure to the east. Probably won't even make it into the UK in reality.
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Quite possibly. There was also a time just after Christmas when a front stalled over Stoke after being modelled to get no further east than Wales.
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I remember a few years back there was a front modelled right down to 0hrs to not get any further north than Birmingham but ended up stalling over me in North Staffordshire for several hours bringing a few inches of snow.
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At least frost would be thick enough to give the look of snow. UKV looks good for Cheshire gap showers (Never seem to get a true streamer).
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Yes. The low looks further north than previous runs from what I can tell.
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Models continuing to trend the low southwards meaning many are left hoping on smaller, more localised and more marginal features to pop up at short notice. Illogical that this is better for snow chances despite the consensus in the model thread that it is. Locations like mine might see showers through the Cheshire gap depending on exact wind direction, and then the possibility of one or two small features moving west to east later in the week but many more sheltered areas may see little or nothing.
