jonboy

This non expert as you so wish to call him simply to cast doubt on his paper is an expert in his own field. As an actuary it is vital that risk is fully understood so that correct assumptions can be made about the future. Actuaries help governments pension providers insurers etc understand the future so that correct policy decisions can be made.

Thanks Jethro I had not seen Brent Walkers paper but do have his original one which this updates. Its interesting as it sets out causes and thus what impacts should be considered. It is his original paper that made me think more about the impact of solar cycles

5.6 and 110mm please

Thats assuming co2 causes the level of warming being projected by the ippc There is research that states on a molecular basis that such projections are 30 to 40 % overstated. If true then solar could ne playing a much bigger part than thought. The research i refer to is by Hermann Harde and published in the intermational journal of astrophysic sciences

Then allow me to challenge your concensus view as long as i do it with reasonable alternatives that do have basis in fact. If you look closely at solar cycles over long periods and not just individual cycles then when you have a succession of high sctive cycles tempratures appear to rise anf when you a series of low to very low cycles they fall it cant be just coincidence.

Funny really that the paper was peer reviewed and published in the international journal of astromony and astrophysics

Please its geoff sharp not jeff sharp wrong sharp

Dimming sun and global dimming are terms used incorrectly for low sloar cycles as they refer to particulants in the atmosphere that reflect back the suns energy before it can reach the esrths surface thus dimming the sun.

Moved to the South of France!! Climate has always fluctuated and always will

I'm not sure why you are using the term 'Dimming Sun' The sun's heat output and brightness in reality has not changed however its magnetic protection via the heliosphere and EUV and F10 wavelength out puts have and it is these that are thought to influence earth's climate the most

We are seeing a rapid refreeze at times and especially this year when some have predicted this would never happen. It takes time for heat to dissipate unless you turn off the heat source totally. To me it is no surprise the entry into minimum has been quick and is considerably lower than the previous 4 cycles. Not only that but cycle 24 max was also considerably lower than that of cycles 21,22 and 23. IF solar cycles in fact play a significant role in earth's temperature it is little surprise we have seen a steady decline over the last 30/40 years in sea ice but could now see a steady increase. I just ask that we consider all factors properly

Yet again manipulation of questions asked. I did not ask why solar maximum didn't create warming I said if solar minimum can cause cooling why can't the opposite be true about grand maximum's. At no point have I ever bought AGW into my posts on this thread unless its been raised first by others. I would prefer if people want to respond to a point I might raise or question I ask that they stick to the point raised. For instance a response to my question regarding grand maximum not causing warming should regards to the method this can't be achieved not that AGW overrides this. The sun's output at both max and minimum are not just about cosmic ray's but are also about ozone production, about how it influences our upper atmosphere temperature. There are many many facets that are not fully understood yet we obsess with CO2 as the main driver for everything climate yet are unwilling to spent a small fraction of that spent telling us how evil we are for creating CO2 when if we actually fully understood what influences solar cycles (try reading Geoff Sharp's paper on Uranus and Neptune's Influence) then we just might understand better longer term climate trends.

Thermosphere Climate Index today: 3.78x1010W Cold Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)Min: 2.05x1010W Cold (02/2009)explanation | more dataUpdated 28 Nov 2018 We continue to see a cooling of the upper atmosphere

Its funny how whenever someone suggests that solar had a particular impact or not in line with the title of the thread some will always counter that greenhouse gases have more impact. Can we please just discuss the potential of the title of this thread?

We talk about the depth of this cycles minimum and possible effects on climate but cycles 19 20 21 and 22 wete towards grand maximum levels. So if a grand minimum can cool why hasnt grand max had the opposite effect

We should also consider what the baseline temperature that is used to say we are x above pre industry times as I believe this was just after the Dalton minimum which would make it a cool base to start with!!!

The thermosphere cools in response to global warming. Your opening statement how else should one take it other than you believe global warming is the main driver. If that is not the case then I suggest you construct you replies better because any opening line is the one that sticks the most

So you believe if its solar it must be instantaneous. Like everything else if you turn of the heat source (and I don't mean the suns output in wattage terms) then a body will cool quicker than when you turn down the heat source basic science I believe. Its called lag!!!

But you seem to want to say that AGW is the main driver I say it is not it is the sun's output via F10.7 etc that is the overriding driver

Like every other AGW scientist he used a reconstructed computer model. Now if you don't like that approach lets call the same for AGW

You said the thermosphere cools in response to global warming I said it does not the element that has by far the overriding influence is the solar cycle either the depth of the minimum or the high activity at its peak. It is not global warming that dictates

No “The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER. This is were closed minds really bug me!!

So how does AGW affect the Thermosphere and lets hope when your talking about ocean temperature your not using the 60% more heat uptake argument!!

Thanks Jethro for your posts. I would like to use the following as an example. Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.14x1010W Cold Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)Min: 2.05x1010W Cold (02/2009)explanation | more dataUpdated 15 Nov 2018 This is a new index which tells us how hot or cold the upper layer of our atmosphere is. Could the fact that the top of our atmosphere is so cold compared to its peak temperature be an influencer on the rapid refreeze we are seeing in the artic at the moment. Would a very cold upper atmosphere allow more heat to escape. The index tells us that at the peak of this present cycle the temperature was only classed as neutral /warm. whereas previous cycles have been warm to hot at their maximum. Unless we know the true impacts of these emerging areas and can openly discuss them how can we really understand our climate

In an area little understood as the research has yet to be completed or carried out relying purely on known science might just put you in the flat earth bracket. We must remember some greats were castigated for saying the earth was round for saying the planets rotated around the sun. Not all science is known thats why i have an open mind!!!