jonboy

We are not in Maunder Minimum territory and would suggest this minimum will be more Sporer like so no lia. A deep minimum will cause cooling but then you have to consider if low activity can cause cooling why doesn’t high activity cause warming?

There is no impending LIA cooling yes LIA No

I'll risk 7.0 and 81mm

Were is the research to back this up?

How does this sit with the Carrington event of 1859? We know that if such an event occurred today it would have a significant impact on satellite's, power grids etc. Do they occur at or towards minimum and would there impact be greater dependant on the depth of minimum. Not that we could do much to protect ourselves given the speed and unpredictability of such events.

Time will tell but I would anticipate this year being around 300/310 days spotless and 2020 being around the 290/300 mark before we see activity pick up in 2021. with max of cycle 25 being in 2025 with a similar or perhaps slightly lower than cycle 24. It will not be a grand minimum.

I am happy to discuss but have highlighted key phrases. When this uncertainty about what I believe to be a major factor in out recent warming trend is clear then and only then will I fall in line. I take exception to being called a denier when I acknowledge our climate has warmed but believe there are many other factors in play not just CO2 which most hide behind.

Really!!! Why doesn't CO2 have this instantaneous effect that you clearly expect of solar cycles cake and eat it comes to mind. If we lived in your world all those dire warnings over the last 10 years would have come true by now. Some say they haven't because the slow down in solar activity has mitigated some off these effects but when someone points out that during this period of increasing temperature the solar cycles have been at there most active we become CCD's. Again Really!!!

It is not the depth of the minimum on its own that matters more the lack of activity at maximum. The last 'deep minimum' as you call it was off the back of a very active maximum. These cannot be taken in isolation. Equally to only use sunspots as the 'evidence' as to why solar cycles have no effect on climate is to say the least bizarre when there are many other factors involved that we don't fully understand and have certainly have no historical record of there values. Tell me how sunspot numbers relate historically to F.10 values or strength of solar winds on our magnetosphere, cosmic rays have been increasing by 18% over the last 4 years etc etc. When we fully understand these impacts then we may be able to say mans impact is X but not before.

No doubt because for much of that period we were in the most active solar cycles on record. It takes time for any solar cycle to impact lets see were the next ten years take us

I'm going for 5.4 and 65mm (I rally want a lot of wet but don't think it will happen)

on what basis do you make your comments?

obviously doesn't fit the right agenda ets face it we should be ice free by now!!!

If its o2 your going too don't bother. Tried in both their city centre store and branch at the outlet centre and totally useless!! still snowing on and off here

Several heavy showers all off snow over the last hour and just easing a little. About 30mm on the ground at present

2.2 and 70mm

A paper from Atmospheric and Climate Sciences titled The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of “Global Warming on Climate Change” https://file.scirp.org/pdf/ACS_2019010914482656.pdf

Its always been extreme you just hear about it more today

1.9 C and 90mm a snowy month

No thats the day after tomorrow or 2nd week of jan in may terms becausr tomorrow never comes

Why cant people accept the models havent a clue. They are numerical models based on recent past experiences and responses we are in territory not modeled before wait and in the next 4 days output will be totally different

Helen Willett on breakfast weather on the bbc was hinting that a colder and potentially snowy outlook was possible from next weekend and xmas week so not all hope lost

It would but i think this minimum is more dalton in intensity

Of the satelite era we have no idea what it was say in the dalton minimum !!

Why do people take each run as gospel itsa blend across many runs