[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

just started snowing

 

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

18 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

BBC say significant  heavy falls and disruption from 7am till around 4pm

I am getting excited. I want to bank this! NO change in forecast please

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The anticipation sky going orange..  

It's my favourite colour, after white:)

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

So will there be some snow on Friday for parts of London? I am off so hopefully it makes it as far as Cricklewood on Friday

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

A snow band is on the way! 

Awesome news. Thanks.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

How accurate are car thermometers- mine is showing - 7c in Surrey at the moment. Did someone mentions showers are heading towards London?

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

6 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

I've been reminiscing to myself about late January 2003, about four inches in a couple of hours. From a north-easterly, I believe. 

It's a mis-conception that London is snowless, like you say, but it does seem an awfully long time now!

There was also a decent snowfall in Cricklewood back in March 2013. Maybe we have to wait till it's March...

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Let’s compare our cms  in the morning.

at the moment, the people with snow are vastly outnumbered by those without. 

Lets hope the next 12 hours rectifies that!

I'm losing hope. I keep going outside to check if shower clouds are building up, but all i see are the stars. It's hard to take, we have all the boxes ticked for snow, yet the showers are not as frequent or potent,  well inland, as expected- at least so far.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

7 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

I am reaching peak frustration. Can't see anything exciting for north London tonight, showers seem to die as soon as they reach land. Although someone correct me if I'm missing something.

Frustrating couple of days for the north London massive - even that blizzard that crossed London missed me earlier, and dropped an inch in Ealing, literally 15 minutes' drive away.

Hey ho, it's only the weather!

I know all about it. I could barely believe it when i drove nearby Ealing. The low temperatures have been the most impressive thing about this cold spell so far:)

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Sod all snow in Surrey so far. The only impressive thing about this is the temperature struggling to get above zero today.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Nothing here in Esher

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Sno' problem said:

The ppn is now moving in from the ENE, which has immediately increased convection.

Nothing so far in Surrey. I will be travelling home in the morning to north west london. Do you think there will be a dusting there by 7 am?

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

I think i will use another radar from now on, because it currently shows Kilburn and north west london with snow, yet no reports from people about this.

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

The radar is poor it shows a lot of snow east of London right now. Yet reports say there is very little snow so far

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

It is bloody freezing out now. Just popped outside, i could only take it for a few minutes. It's great that we finally don't have to worry about it being too marginal for snow or the snow not making it inland.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

So it begins. I will be up all night radar watching. I wonder will we get any snow in Surrey before morning?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Polar Lows don’t form in easterly flows as far as I’m aware, because of the short sea track over the North Sea, normally they form over the Norwegian Sea in an arctic northerly flow, and more particularly in early winter too, they are convectively driven so require warmer SSTs which are present to the north of Scotland thanks to the Gulf Stream. However, the ‘lake effect’ of the North Sea can still generate enough energy to bring copious amounts of snowfall.

Thank you very much for your reply. And may i say I enjoy reading your posts on here. You always give a detailed explaination to the layman like me, and just as importantly a measured analysis of events- even though you seem to desire the same outcome as many of us on here.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Just a quick question can a polar flow form in this situation, or is pressure too high and not enough of a sea fetch involved when it's coming across the north sea?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

Any non- believer please leave by the side door now. Brace yourself everyone else the snow is coming. brr

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

• A great UKMO!! the core of the cold is further north. It's game on people!!

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

We are on the cusp of something special. We just have to hope the ECM doesn't lose the plot on its next run.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

I can barely contain my excitement for this.Sneachta is coming!!  By the way was it ever explained what was in that bucket that had to be cleaned for two hours

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’m a little dubious of the GFS 12 hrs run .

It’s not the correction north as that’s within the envelope of solutions but it’s lack of interest in developing an Omega block .

Thats the reason milder conditions move up from the sw.

Differences in timing in terms of the evolution to the Omega block are likely but a no show from it are highly unlikely.

 

You should know from previous situations(think March 2013) to be sceptical of GFS ouput showing a quick return to milder conditions

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/pdf/presentation/20110205-blackburn.pdf

 

 

Ah i got the winters mixed up, The winter of 2009-2010 had a ssw.   The following winter, which also had a notable cold period, did not

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

33 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

The best resemblance i can make for the synoptics  in this event is 2010, a nice SSW and the cold was seen well ahead and ran into us nice and smoothly with no watering down, since then yes we have had many awful failures, but none have had what we are seeing once again and this time its an SSW for the history books, will this lead to history making weather for us? I really don't know!!.............Gonna be fun watching though.

I think sometimes 2010 made newcomers to this funny game we play, think that it was all so easy, when in reality its ruddy hard

I don't think there was a SSW  prior to the cold outbreak in 2010