Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Well...the GEFS suite how now flipped more towards the initial ECM 12z idea (i.e 72-96 hr range)
We'll see how it unfolds from here
So you seem to be saying it will move towards the ECM solution later on. I suppose if it can go wrong it will...
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
So would GFS it’s increadible, persistent snowfall starts in our region on Sunday.
It would be fantastic- something we'd talk about for years to come - it would go down in snowlore!
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3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:
Or is it Eagle"s location, being further west in Ireland, any southward correction would effect him more? I'm a pessimist by nature, and now I'm concerned
that - and he does not want to get his hopes up, only to have them crushed.
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1 minute ago, Fender.. said:
And yet other are ramping the charts up. Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?
1 minute ago, Fender.. said:And yet other are ramping the charts up. Are we going to get buried, or is it all going to end up in France?
Is it reverse psychology? , because the charts still look very good to me.
Of course nothing is guaranteed in terms of snowy cold until we have cross model agreement at t48
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3 hours ago, lawrenk said:
Jan ‘87 is still the best and coldest snowy spell I’ve experienced.
I can remember the snow showers starting in the afternoon as I walked home from school and then being off for, I’m sure a week, afterwards. And those were the days when schools didn’t shut when there was just a cm on the ground!
Indeed! Froze were the days!
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10 minutes ago, lawrenk said:
This does look like it “could” be a memorable cold spell if it comes off.
I’m sure someone will know, but when did we last have -15 uppers in the region?
In 1987 there was uppers below -15
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6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
JMA is fantastic (full run out now)
Too bad it's not rated very highly. The tension in here would disappear if was the ECM or GFS showing that.
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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Was that the Dec 2012 one?
I'm remaining upbeat as we head towards the 18z, the 12z ensemble was still good for Greenland blocking but given the timescale we wouldn't expect every op run to go in the same direction. GEFS mean at T324:
Yes it was. Glacier Point was shocked at the time, he cited an uptick in Solar Activity as the reason for the failure.
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30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Thank you for that very detailed explanation, much appreciated. Your reference to increased solar interference is something I am very interested in. I have noticed over the years that when the sun suddenly decides to burst into life, the atlantic almost simultaneously ramps up as well. There is definitely a connection. The trouble is, the increased solar activity always seems to happen just when all the other pieces of our cold jigsaw fall into place. Funny that, isn't it?
It - solar activity- scuppered Glacier Point's easterly a few years ago
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Well the showers have arrived here, but of course when the precipitation makes it this far it has to be rain
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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
M27 blob keeping an eye on.
Well, hopefully within 10 days we won't have to worry about whether the showers make it to us, or if they will be of snow, because we will have -10 uppers over us
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
I think you’ll see sleet / hail or snow. That’s if they get there.
Yeah knowing my luck they won't. I might pop in the car to go the showers if not:)
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Just now, Daniel* said:
Definitely possible yes. How high?
I am 250 foot above sea level.
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12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
I don’t believe these showers were modelled....
checked ignore
Will high ground in London see snow from these showers?
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55 minutes ago, snowray said:
I think most of us are pretty unique on here, also a bit nutty, in a nice way though to be so obsessed with the weather, particularly snow, so I would agree that we are not like the run of the mill "sheeple" which is a good thing.
It's looking more and more likely that we are going to get a cold and snowy late February that might well continue into March, none the less the sun is a lot stronger now and it is the time of year that can turn out very cold and wintry just as easily as mild and spring like. In fact we can see how quickly it can change on the GFS run, Winter to spring in 4 days.
I would be sceptical of the later frames of the GFS if blocking does take hold. The GFS is always progressive in bringing back milder weather. I recall in March 2013 the cold being quite persistent despite the GFS saying otherwise.
Of course maybe it will be right this time, but if we got three to four days of heavy snow showers beforehand, then most here would be happy with that.
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Plenty of time for milder days and sunshine throughout the year, there is still time for a snowy period in the next three or four weeks,
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I should have drove north east of London till i met some snow:)
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Just cloudy here for the last few hours. I don't think there will be any snow overnight,.
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45 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Snow band north of London over northern home counties seems be pepping up a bit, perhaps because of Chilterns / Dunstable Downs uplift ... wishful thinking, but could be last snow chance for a while.
Some pretty impressive snowfalls in Paris and still falling, they are only just recovering from the River Seine flooding the city. Certainly the weather impacting them this winter, then they have all the big storms in the summer we don't get.
So you don't think there will be any snow on the back end of the front on Friday?
There is snow grains/ snizzle here at the moment.
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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
I have concerns for those in southern coastal counties and for south east..(the region)
Decay-and fragmentation taking place atm..
Although plent of time for re-surge!
Lets hope this is'nt the trend!!!
So it's back to chasing snow flurries now. Sigh. I really hope this SSW event leads to something good for us all.
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3 hours ago, nick sussex said:
Yes!
Now that the models are latching onto a QTR I’d expect that to be accelerated.
Excuse my ignorance, but what is a QTR?
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3 minutes ago, throwoff said:
Then out of now where METO and Beeb fancy 6 hours of snow!
That would be brilliant!
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Cloud is building up here. Hopefully there will be snow to report soon
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16 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:
Probably see something but nothing to get excited about, slight dusting at best
I'll be happy to just see some snow falling!
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
In that winter there were a few epic snow events in mid to late February. In fact you will find a lot of significant snowfalls over the years have occured in February or March, rather than in December or January.