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Yorkshirepudding

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    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    37 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

    I’m completely clueless here but if the band is too south, wouldn’t there be a strong probability of showers off the east coast… and that they could potentially be fairly intense due to warm sea temps?
     

    I know not ideal for those in the west but there could still be streamers (in certain areas) and disturbances, plus with the cold air locked in for some time at worst a snow-rain breakdown event could be possible. Thoughts?

    The way I see it your pretty much on the money if the low tracks further south it will bring us more of a easterly/northeasterly sooner driving snow showers and throughs well in land. the west always struggles in these setups but that doesn’t mean that the west won’t get any snow as you say streamers can set up almost anywhere pushing well in land even at times to our extreme west in some cases. So the low going south is fine for cold and snow, but too far north some will have rain while more northern areas will have sleet and snow. But to far north and we could all miss out but that isn’t going to happen lol. I would however like to see a big snow event in the centre of our country and then as it moves across and sinks we enter the really cold air so the snow sticks around with the addition of showers etc, but as others have already stated normally these set ups tend to go south more than anything although I would like to see it 50-100miles north for selfish reasons. Lol 

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    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding
    Typo

    21 minutes ago, okidoke said:

    Hello everyone! 

    So first ever post! I have been on net weather forums for over 10 years! 

    have we not learnt anything how many times have we been here lol

    I take it like this the high will collapse and low pressure will bring in the Atlantic its not want any one want for the festive period but if there is alike a 5% chance of that happening as we all no it probably will! 

    least we forget I think it was like a few years ago a done deal brutal cold spell was set in! all the charts where going for it part from 1 .. what could go wrong and the odds of it happening .. yep you guessed what happened next! 

     

    so as I was saying it will be chilly over the festive period with cold at the surface with fog and maybe frost then the Atlantic will win!

    I wish I was wrong BUT thats they way its going ! no point cherry picking ..pointless

    I also remember 2013 when the chase was on and the signals was all there 10days out. And guess what it actually materialised lol. But I agree with what you say as a norm it will go from boom to bust as we get into the more reliable. However sometimes just sometimes they actually all come together. And I like the fun of the chase hence why I love these forums this time of year. Fingers crossed all the way to the bank

    • Like 3

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, bazookabob said:

    So wind warnings for the whole region onTuesday and a snow warning for Western hilly parts. Interestingly, however, the snow warning doesn't mention anything about elevation, just says 2-5cm widely in the warning area. Not sure what to make of that as my home is outside the warning (just) but my work at Cleckheaton is in it, but at less than 100m asl. I wish I worked at Queensbury, its only 5 miles from work but over 300m asl so rarely marginal! 

    I feel this low coming in from the west is still putting some uncertainties on what happens next I expect upgrades or downgrades as it develops across the uk on Monday. I feel then the met office will adapt its warnings as and when. 

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Wold Topper said:

    if only, we shall see? Currently 9c, but does feel a bit colder under a clear sky,

    Temperatures set to start dropping at the end of the weekend to something more seasonable, then from next Thursday and into the following weekend that’s when ( Judging by the current models) the weather takes an interesting turn to even colder things with the pots of ❄️ We will see

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 hours ago, Craigers said:

    Alot of winter is over posts in the mod thread . Things might look totally different on the charts by this Sunday. Got to hope

    Anyone who is writing off the rest of the winter can do so at their own peril. I’m obviously not saying anything else will happen snow/cold wise but we still have a long way to go. Things can change in the matter of days  and we still have several weeks left..

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, super_claret said:

    Been a regular visitor here but never posted.  Anybody know if Pateley Bridge will see any snow Saturday night?  We've had 3 falls so far this winter but

    not had as much as the rest of Yorkshire so far.  We seem to be sheltered from major dumpings here!

    Welcome. And to answer your question yes you have a very big chance you will be getting snow from early Saturday evening, before snow showers start to pep up from Sunday through to next week

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    46 minutes ago, Craigers said:

    Snow is being brought forward to late afternoon here now on UKM raw data.

    received_426266578821353.thumb.jpeg.95c7fb93aa7e27ed884871a55c7d9da6.jpeg

    Screenshot_20210205-133330_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f5ce991cd8efe5bbd48f3da436c60e03.jpg

    Yes pal it’s been getting brought forward all day slowly, I feel inland areas with slight elevation to begin with some of us could get a good dump of snow early evening Saturday into Sunday Morning giving some snow fields to accumulate on

    Edit.. Actually what I said fits into the weather warning issued by the met office for Saturday into Sunday but if it can arrive a little earlier perhaps it will benefit us all a little more. 

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning guys, thank you @johnholmes for posting your article on 2010 really enjoyed reading it . 
     

    below is a couple of fax charts the first I’ve stolen off John (hope you don’t mind pal) from December 1 2010 the other is the UKMO 12z fax chart for Monday the 8th 2021. Obviously by no way identical but there’s similarities one been the high pressure over Norway and the low pressure that’s due to move across us through Saturday and move down into Europe opening the flood gates for these easterly showers. So for the people out there that are wondering where exactly these showers will or will not occur and how often etc, The low pressure will play a big part but without knowing the exact track it will take its pretty impossible to forecast. But I will say it’s looking great for our region and possibly special for some lucky buggers in our region lol

    8F9BDA9F-3E7E-480A-8CEF-B688D5DC12D1.png

    06A4A182-E91D-4AE6-AF6F-FDA2DADF852D.png

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, reef said:

    I'm going the cautious route until I see the radar on the day because as 2018 proved, nothing is guaranteed. That was literally the perfect setup but we barely managed 1cm here throughout the entire spell.

    In my experience, for around here what we don't want is that front being positioned too far north or it will kill off any shower activity. Uppers are -10C so for the immediate lowland areas close to the coast its going to be getting to 2-3C during the day so if the showers are light they wont accumulate as much then. The easterlies in 2010 and 2013 were quite similar, with very slow thaws during the day.

    I think as long as the wind has a slight northerly component we'll be fine. If we start getting a more ESE direction (as seems to be the case on Tues) the longer sea track will favour areas further north and we'll lose the showers here.

    I remember 2018 pal you was extremely unlucky with what set up and I felt for you buddy.. but like you say caution is required as models find it extremely hard to pin point these sort of set ups. Fingers crossed for you this year pal

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

    GFS shows a massive streamer setup just North of the Humber around 1800 Monday and then maintain for around 36 hours.  It does look like it will waver around a bit but North Yorkshire looks to be in the direct firing line.  Hoping for something similar for South Yorkshire! 

    951549A0-5DDF-458B-8337-7A0A7F74C078.gif

    I’d be buried if this came off. I can only hope lol.. I’m sure they’ll be lots of interest for lots of different areas for these streamers we are all in the game that’s one thing for sure

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

    I'm getting a bit worried with some of the ppn charts I see for my area. Looks like there won't be much activity here and most of it is going south? 

    I wouldn’t worry too much just yet buddy, the low moving over on Saturday isn’t nailed to its exact track yet which will influence where the PPN is most likely initially. 50-100miles is nothing of a shift in weather terms and don’t forget these showers haven’t even been made in the atmosphere yet. I’ve learnt over the years in these setups you’ll find Forecasts etc saying one thing regarding where the projected showers are which isn’t in your location and you end up having a streamer above your head giving several CMs.

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

    GFS was indeed a downgrade in terms of forecast shower activity (not that I would focus on that - showers are always nowcast).

    Generally though the length of the potential window means that I would be fairly confident on widespread 10-20cm totals.

    Worth saying that in my experience we tend to get more snow in West Yorkshire than forecast from easterlies as models struggle to forecast more unstable areas within a unstable flow.

    I'm allowing myself to get quite excited now.

     

    Yes showers generally blow up as they move in land before getting eaten up by the Pennines meaning the north west don’t see as much. But It will be all about where the showers are most frequent and heaviest and where streamers may develop will be obviously where the largest amounts are but this is impossible to forecast at this time and will be more down to nowcasting on the day. I don’t want to be a party pooper but unfortunately some places might not see much if any at all I just hope I’m not one of them .. But if it turns into a persistent cold spell I’m sure everyone at some point will get in on the act .. 

    Really looking forward to a proper cold spell now. Giving us something to get excited about given the circumstances. ❄️

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