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Yorkshirepudding

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding
    Added to post

    So here we are now at Monday morning, everything is all pretty much on track. Snow event for most our region tomorrow morning could give some Several CMs before unfortunately it looks like it will quickly thaw out Tuesday night through to Thursday before the real fun and games are looking increasingly likely. We are in that time frame that we are going to have some sort of cold spell, but now the question is... For How long, how cold and what the majority of us want to know how much snow potential. The majority of our region really benefits from a proper easterly snow wise, bringing in shower after shower and in some cases streamer after streamer from the North Sea snow machine and with extreme surface temperatures any snow will naturally sick around and accumulate. So hopefully we get this nailed on over the next few days.
     

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So today went as expected, With the main band reaching north midlands with a little clipping our most southern parts of our region. Starting to really look forward to Tuesday now where some relatively low lying places 100-150m could see around 10cm and If the system stalls slightly which is a possibility it could well be more however this isn’t clear at the moment but if it does and we get the cold in slightly quicker the snow could stick around ready for the potential BFTE. 

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    18 minutes ago, Tinker Bell said:

    Starting to get exciting in the mad thread again! Can I get excited for snow? Yet to see a flake this winter and I have waited patiently since 2010 !!! 

    Unfortunately for you location anything in the semi reliable frame isn’t offering you a great deal at present, However all the talk of the potential easterly in the Mad thread as you call it should it start to deliver in a week or so time should without a doubt put you in the game to.

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding
    Typo

    We are getting into that nervous time frame now, Let’s hope the models continue churning out these fantastic charts for Coldies! Hopefully come Monday morning this is still the case then we can really start thinking about a definite cold spell then it will be all about how cold and for how long. In the mean time Tuesday looks very interesting too and as I’m writing this we now have weather warnings for the whole of our region away from coastal areas on Monday through to Wednesday so let’s hope this continues to upgrade so we don’t have another rain/sleety bust.. Very interesting and exciting times model watching ahead and let’s pray we actually get this cold spell in this time because let’s face it, it’s been knocking on the door all winter. ??????

    • Like 5

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    I would be very surprised if that system on Saturday makes its way this far north especially for my location at the northern western tip of West Yorkshire, although it’s not a bad thing as it means we should get the colder air in quicker. I’d expect it stall over north midlands at best perhaps our southern tip may get a dusting as it stalls and rotates back down south. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and it stalls over my location lol meaning our entire region would be in play but that’s just wishful thinking but not impossible so not to be ruled out completely either. These types of set ups though almost always scoot south of our region as the cold air try’s to push in from the north and east. 

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding
    Typo

    1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

    I think at the moment above 200m for a big dumping. 100-199m more marginal, could be the case of 25m making all the difference.

    Further updates needed. Depends on 3 factors:

    *How heavy the precipitation is (Aids evaporative cooling.)

    *How slow moving/persistant the band is

    *How much wind there is. (Too much wind can negate the effects of evaporative cooling, which should come into play thursday.)

    All three of these factors come in our favour and that snow line I mentioned could be a good 150m lower with all of us in the game! 

    Seems like things have been flip flopping around with the snow line all day, it was indicating for my location heavy snow for a good few hours this morning, then it went to sleet, then to rain, then back to sleet this evening. Things could be a totally different story in the morning and we could all end up getting a pasting lol.  It’s so marginal and needing so many different factors it will be another on the day look out of your window scenario.

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, joggs said:

    I'm certainly not expecting anything at my elevation in the next week or so. Can only hope the front on Thursday/Friday is further south and stalls over us to give low lying areas a chance. Other than that 200m and above.  Just cant get any of these lows to disrupt. They're always round and hang around to ou west grrrrrrr.

    Onto the 1st week of Feb now for me personally.

    Don’t write off your location just yet buddy for Thursday through to Sunday obviously not a given but there’s still a decent chance for seeing some snow.

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    The ECM tonight is an absolute dream, but usually this far out any sweet spot if there is to be snow usually ends up at least 100/200 miles north or south of where initially predicted.

    Can't be disregarded, certainly on the table but I'd give probability at this stage of around 5% that chart verifies. Some snow to lowish levels about 20%..

    Totally agree buddy, it’s just nice to have the potential showing up on the models tonight rather than what was showing the last few days. Obviously all subject to change for the better or the worse but for now I can only hope that comes off as it would put me in the sweet spot lol

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Tonight into tomorrow morning has all the hall marks of the 'Aire gap' coming into play. Winds perfectly aligned to bring showers through settle > skipton> ilkley> Otley. Might get a nice little covering!

    Other area of interest looks like areas just east of manchester (cheshire gap). Peak district > sheffield >   maybe rotherham to name a few places. Think showers should be more organised here in general. 

     Gaps_through_Pennine_Mountains_UK_topographic_map.thumb.gif.dac573d0ee1ac4bfe86220ca69fdff34.gif

     

    At the moment can't see any snow sunday, looks far too south of us, although southern parts of south yorkshire match just catch something.

    Love an “ Aire Gap “ pal living on the river Aire myself and hopefully we get one tonight/Tomorrow from a bias point of view. Lol.

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

    Yellow weather warning out for snow and ice, covers Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  Potential for accumulation on low ground.

    Yes I was just about to comment on this also, Tonight showers will build across the Pennines of our region  from the West/North West as the showers join together and the temperature drops giving some longer spells of snow moving a little further in land as we go through the early hours of the morning.. I should think it will be all about nowcasting as some people will probably see nothing and others could be just plain lucky. Dusting for some nothing for others and a couple of inches for the lucky ones. Going into Sunday the system that will make it’s way across Ireland is in no way nailed as in the exact track, at the moment I feel it may just clip the southern part of our region although it may deliver more north getting the majority of us in the action or it could scoot further south missing us all out. All that said interesting over night tonight into the early hours for some, and all eyes on the track come Sunday which could go one of a few ways but we are all still in the game for seeing something. 

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    Looking like we could be getting some eye candy later tonight/early hours of tomorrow for north western parts of our region, potentially moving further east as the night goes on but probably fizzling out as it does. Nothing really special has happened this winter yet (Still Time), but if it doesn’t these little treats now and again I’ll take.

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking interesting for our region again overnight and into the morning big thaw as the system moves away but still could be some eye candy for the night owls or early birds tomorrow. fingers crossed for the system to just slow a fraction as it tracks eastwards  to bring more low lying areas into the game as this will slow the spread of the warmer air giving us the chance of a more wide spread snow fall at lower levels. Then hopefully I slight warm spell until we head back cold further into next week and towards next weekend.

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding

    So the transition to snow for my location started around 6am with icy rain which slowly moved through the stages till around 8am (a little slower than I thought obviously down to elevation which is around 120m and perhaps been west of the region) when the real stuff started to fall. Been snowing now for nearly two hours with heavier stuff falling since around 9am with approximately 1.5cm of lying snow now It’s been a slow process not only to get the cold in for the transition of snow but to get the cold and intensity in for the snow to settle and start to accumulate. Now all that is now in place it’s just a matter now of how much I’m guessing it’s going to be over the 2-5cm the met office predicted for most lower lying areas of our region due to currently already having nearly 2cm already, Question is how much more . 

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