Yorkshirepudding
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Posts posted by Yorkshirepudding
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I realise this may be slightly off topic so I apologise if so and please feel free to move it to the relevant if needed... I posted this question in the mods and banter thread which could of been missed by the relevant people that could possibly answer it... this was the question.
Given In certain areas Japan see’s the most snow fall on average than anywhere else in the world during winter, been an island like the uk and seeing something similar all winter like the lake type effect snow we do with a “Beast From The East” when winds come from a Russian direction, In the event of a SSW when the winds tend to reverse does/can this result in Japan getting a milder less snowy winter than normal??
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4 hours ago, danm said:
Correspondent on the BBC from Brussels, snowing heavily there. That's from the front that swept through the UK last night, rain mostly here, as soon as it hits the contintent it turns to snow. If only we had a more continental climate!
It’s frustrating I know but the place that receives the most snow in the world during winter is on the island of Japan. Effectively they get something similar to what we do when the Beast from the east arrives on our shores from Russia(West). But they get it all winter along with sub zero temps so it just keeps accumulating.
Which leads me onto a question for you more experienced folk..
In the event of a SSW when the winds reverse does this result in Japan getting a milder less snowy winter ??
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Yep the Otley Gap streamer didn’t materialise in fact in this case it ended up pretty much avoiding it all together..lol.
Thats the nature of these showers some do pretty well and some get next to nothing.
Ahh well I’m sure they’ll be more opportunities before this winter ends. Especially with the slight upgrades on the models earlier..
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5 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:
You should put your height in your bio like most of us have, I assumed you were down in the valley.
When I posted my first post if you read it back I state some people with elevation may do well out of this.. I wasn’t initially referring to myself. But I’ll look into altering my bio to save confusion in the future
Anyhow good dusting here this morning very cold and ice any showers are snow even to lower levels so stay safe guys & Girls hope everyone sees their first proper snow of the winter
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I’m definitely not disagreeing with you at all buddy I’m just pointing out the fact that some not all may get some decent accumulations especially with elevation where some of these showers are more frequent and band together, My location is up on the moorside around 250m above sea level so I’d say I’m in the game if the showers play ball.
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9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:
I think realistically the most you could expect is around 1-2cm tops, most likely for higher ground 150m+, but wouldn't rule out transient covering to low ground.
Again it will be more down to Now Casting tomorrow but the signs look promising for some fun and games in my location.
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50 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Not sure hkw organised the trough will be but it looks like west yorkshire may get its shot tomorrow.
Yes just seen the upgrades looks promising for some spells of snow tomorrow for some, more where the showers band together some locations could get some decent accumulations especially with a little elevation. Fingers crossed for some good radar watching .
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1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:
This upcoming wintry weather from the north west over the next week or so has 'otley gap' written all over it Should be plenty of heavy snow showers rattling through if the latest charts are to be believed. Nice little gap in pennines that locally my location can do quite well.
I’d take that as I’m right in the channel of that Otley Gap . But I think the showers Tomorrow will be all now casting hopeful of seeing a few CMs adding to this marginal front that moves through tonight as I have a bit of elevation I’m hoping of a bit of the white stuff on the back edge as the cold sets in behind..
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25 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Looks like rain to wet snow to me.
These look exactly what Nick F was pointing out in his article that Paul posted earlier. And I quote...
“ A deep depression moving off the tip of Greenland towards Iceland will push an active frontal system across the west later in the day across then further east overnight and into Tuesday before clearing SE England early Tuesday. It will turn briefly ‘milder’ ahead of this frontal system, so the front initially bring rain for most, but colder cutting in behind from the northwest sourced from a very cold Greenland and NE Canada, could turn the rain to snow on the back edge as it clears SE.”
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Just incase anyone wants to compare models with the 1963 model of around a similar date.
Could it be possible???
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1 hour ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:
December 1962 wasn't mild, at least here in NW England. We saw the first snow showers arrive in mid-December with lying snow during Christmas Day and Boxing Day '62. This is from actual experience.
Autumn '62 was very mild with the first frosts occurring in late November.
Apologies for the 62-63 I miss read that information I wasn’t around then..however I still stand by what I said some of the coldest come from mild Decembers.
My point was more about agreeing that there’s plenty of potential and scope with everything going on with the polar vortex In the atmosphere and the SSW it’s very interesting watching the models and reading all of comments and thoughts. In what could be an exciting time for cold/snow lovers...
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2 hours ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:
2 major things for me which give major doubt
*exceptionally mild December: Usually going back through the CET archive, January’s and February’s following a very mild December rarely deliver.
*Westerly Qbo: January’s with a westerly qbo tend to be mild, or (not snowy).
However, despite this, there is still some scope for optimism... we haven’t seen the affects of the recent ssw yet come into the models... and we have very low flux.
Although some of the coldest and snowiest have come after a mild December.. 1947 and 1963 for example..
We are already seeing and feeling some of the effects of the SSW and split as we speak with temperatures and wind dropping huge amounts from New Year’s Eve and some experts already believe this SSW could be the strongest on record. So this excites me as the potential is definitely real.
I’m in no way saying that a historical Cold spell is nailed on but there’s lots going on in the atmosphere that definitely increases the risk of it. So like you say buddy a lot of scope to look forward to and I look forward to keeping up to date with some of the outstanding posts that are produced in these forums. Keep up the good work guys
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1 hour ago, Bazray said:
I wonder if New Years Day 2019 will be the day the scales tipped in our favour, before then lots of waiting and disappointment. Maybe now the SSW has happened and with the vortex splitting the models will only get better from now, and the excitement will build in this place, we have waited patiently and deserve it! Reminds me a little of what happened earlier in Feb / March 2018 after the SSW the models got progressively more bullish by the day and would not back down.
Yes and to potentially receive it a month earlier in the winter could make for some very exciting and interesting times a head.... I remember all the talk on the model thread as the last beast was getting increasingly closer people saying “ If ONLY it was a month sooner etc etc “ and it was still epic... The second half of this winter has all the ingredients to be a very memorable one. Let just hope these ingredients continue to mix correctly..
Happy New Year everyone..
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53 minutes ago, karyo said:
There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!
Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?
I’m sure I’ve seen that some of the worst winters have come after a milder start to the winter. This of course might not be the case this winter but with lots going on in the atmosphere if your a cold lover there could be some exciting times a head going into January.
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The Ice that’s formed from the freezing Rain has covered my Satellite Dish Which has caused my Sky to stop working
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Says Snow on the Radar but it’s still just freezing rain.. I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed this type of weather before.
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2 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:
Cool pic though!
It's such a strange thing. And rare in the UK. Even Keeley said on look North yesterday in all her years she's hardly seen it and certainly not an amber warning for it before
It’s actually quite worrying. I’ll try get some more picks later if it continues..
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Freezing Rain for my location now.. Even on the outside of the window with the heating on..
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I know Weather apps aren’t the most reliable... But...
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8 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:
Thanks everyone appreciate it. I'm also concerned for my partner who is disabled and uses a walking aid so need to think of him as we are travelling from barnsley via coach to leeds then having to get to arena.
I would normally love weather like this snow etc but when it falls on a event day I've had booked since august! I'm like nooooo but safety has to come first.
I only know to well what it’s like to be disabled on snow. I’ve been on crutches now for almost 2 years and when it snows it makes things so difficult. What time do you set off to Leeds??
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@LeeSnowFan I live about 25 miles North West of Leeds I will post reports and pictures should they warrant it for you to give you an idea.
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2 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:
Thanks for this, still unsure if I should travel to leeds for the concert tonight? as need to get home about 10.30pm
I think later is better as the front moves through and turns gradually back to “Normal” rain.... Delays on the likes of the M62 are very likely especially on the higher passes. The central spine of northern England is given for the worst maybe just slightly more west and North of Leeds but having said that depending on the time of your travel will be the factor. And then there’s the risk of delays from Accidents especially if we get freezing rain for a period it could get very nasty out there. So stay safe everyone .
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Hey guys As the days become shorter and the temperature slowly drops away I know it’s still a couple of months away until we are officially back into winter and hopefully snow. But does anyone have any predictions for this coming winter???
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Morning all what a nice sight I woke up to this morning the last hurrah before a quick thaw it’s definitely been a better winter in terms of cold and snow in stead of cold and rain. Been snowing at my location since around 4/5am. Still snowing and got roughly 3-4” as it stands judging by where the farmer has ploughed I’m roughly 2/220m above sea level. So as predicted the spine of our region and elevation most at risk with a couple of CMs at lower levels with the intensity.
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Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Yorkshirepudding
I watched a video from a Met office forecaster earlier, He said that either side of the extreme of the Track the Tuesday Low would take is either the Med and the other side of the spectrum through the Channel. However he stated the most likely track would be the middle of France.. Obviously if it tracks through the Med it’s a fail for the UK and if it tracks through the Channel it could be good for southern UK up to the midlands. But if it tracks through France it would only just clip the most southern parts of the uk..So it’s hard to see based on that video that the Low will track any further north of the Channel however you never know. So it seems we will be holding onto the extreme north Tack that forecaster believes to be the Channel for any chance of a snow event.. fingers crossed