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East Kent Snow Desert

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

    Just want to post up a few charts that illustrate how an unhelpful looking Northern Hemispheric profile synoptically, can eventually lead to a very helpful one, if a Snow laden Easterly, "floats your boat".

    As am an old f--t, I can remember the Christmas of 1984 and how the Synoptic charts were looking back then:

    Christmas Eve 1984, looking pretty "naff" but hang in there!! Christmas Day 1984 pretty mundane, too.

                                      image.thumb.png.52bb1e04e2425687612d03766014dc5c.png / image.thumb.png.d76042ddb9e4bd16faa3c88ab899f2af.png

    But by Boxing Day 1984, the Atlantic seems to be slowing down? By the 28th, some W.A.A. [Warm Air Advection], is in evidence:

                                      image.thumb.png.e978b60fcd6637b5cf7037e1a3a331c0.png /  image.thumb.png.d2035f8db2932ada53b838eb1e7f05f4.png

    The following Day [29th], the core of heights are transferring  across the U.K., towards Scandinavia.

    On New Year's Day 1985, there was a further bout of Warm Air Advection, surging Polewards: 

                                      image.thumb.png.e50329deb269559f63d40fbfc5dd9950.png / image.thumb.png.9750071ee903ecdb92b2ef6f393dd16f.png

    By the 3rd January, the core of heights is in charge between Iceland and Svarlbard. The following Day [4th Jan], the Synoptics to our N.E., started to look very favourable: 

                                      image.thumb.png.1dc1aebaf7dd3271a31f08c4596e2e3d.png / image.thumb.png.27be3f655e284535d22d6f6db2b2acff.png

      Then on the 5th January 1985 a bitterly cold flow from the N.E., was knocking on the door of our Region: 

                                                                            image.thumb.png.b2214ff64766ac0c5f7954700a81beea.png       

    I had just moved back to S.E. London, after living in Lincolnshire for a Year and seeing a few inches of settling Snow outside my Maisonette, was a perfect welcome home present, for this Snow Lover.     

    It is quite an unusual Synoptic evolution and by no means am I suggesting the same is going to happen, this Winter.

    But it does illustrate how a not very interesting Synoptic profile, in terms of a Wintry prospect for our Region, can become very interesting in terms of seeing Snow for our Region, if all the pieces of the Synoptic jigsaw fall into place.

    Regards,

    Tom Q. 👍

    Thanks for this info.  I was living in Cliftonville (Margate) at the time and my German relatives, who were staying with us over Christmas, were scheduled to return home on either the 5th or 6th but we all woke up to an unexpected snowfall and they had to delay their trip. I was sixteen at the time and recall quite a significant amount of snow especially with us being so close to the seafront.  Good to see how that cold spell came about!  Cheers  

    • Like 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Jamie M said:

    Exactly what I was thinking, it's good the Estuary hasn't killed off all of the potential for falling snow so we might be alright somewhat. You're definitely getting a better shout in Herne though than me a bit closer to the town centre 

    Yep, a mile or so inland and a little elevation does seem to make quite a difference in these marginal situations. Not long to find out I guess. 

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    I think the models may be underestimating how cold it will get under heavier precipitation, so think that we could end up with more turning from rain to snow than is suggested currently, at least hopefully

     

    24 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:

    Not for the south though midlands northwards yes, but as I’ve been trying to highlight those along southern counties are likely to have a week of cold rain and sleet 

    I think those of us in the south are well aware that any marginal set ups are likely to usually leave us on the wrong side but there are factors that suggest the situation could be more favourable, if you want snow falling at least, next week. 

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Long time lurker from the South East (sorry, another one) here. While it's fairly quiet between runs I just wanted to thank you all for the time and effort you put in to your informative posts. A relatively dull winter looks to be coming to an end. As said before what can go wrong often does for the UK, even at 96hrs. Would it be fair to say that we can now be 75% confident of this cold  (hopefully white) spell taking place? Cheers

    • Like 5
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