[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, abovefreezing said:

@ 51, am I the oldest "big kid" in ere?

52. Wife thinks I'm a bit touched

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Cars moved off road onto drive - check

Plants moved indoors - check

Snow shovel (bought after BFTE in 2018 and never used) and sledges at the ready - check

Outside condensing pipe and tap insulated - check

Bird feeders topped up - check

Let the lampost watching commence, well in 10 hrs time

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well my Google weather has sleet at one am and snow storm at two am. Although obviously you can't really go by that. It'll be easier to say from tomorrow evening's high Res output.

At least this time around we only need to focus on the radar and not worry about the temps and dp!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

well that puts us in thanet into marginality, but bbc and meto for ramsgate show light snow all day on sunday

Note sure if it was 1991 or 1996, but we had a decent easterly set up and in Thanet where I lived at the time snow depths were a cm or two but 15 miles west in Canterbury where I was working the snow was 25/30cm deep. Hopefully that doesn't turn out to be the case this time!  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Hi all. Another long time lurker here and just wanting to thank all the regular, knowledgeable posters for their time and efforts over these past couple of months.  Certainly been an interesting winter thus far.

That GFS 12z was good to see with no mention of marginality or the M4 for us in the south and south east.  Makes a refreshing change.   

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

14 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yep, the GFS is run at 0.25 degrees which is about 27km ish, so the grid squares near to the coasts actually can think they're mostly or even entirely in the sea, which isn't going to be conducive to settling snow! That's one of many reasons to take lying snow forecasts at that range and using medium range models with a big dose of salt. 

Thanks for the explanation Paul!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Does anyone know if these images are prone to ignoring Thanet and the North East coast of Kent for snow depths or could there be a legitimate reason for this? 

I know the temps are often a couple of degrees higher than further west and south but surely in this instance with low 850s and DPs this is unlikely to be accurate.

   

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Models last Friday (other than ECM) were suggesting the cold would be in this Friday with added snow risk and now three days later we are looking at Sunday or Monday in the south east at the earliest.  For me it's always a worry when the colder weather stay's 7 days or more away as there is then a chance of other influences negatively affecting our prospects.  After so many promising charts this winter , I'm feeling very pessimistic today despite the METO week ahead forecast

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Of course it has, as it never existed yet in the first place. Who knows what will happen this time next week, I'm thinking no one.

Exactly, no-one knows. Could be a 3 bites at the cherry scenario! We'll probably know for sure by this evening

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Whilst there was no decent snow to speak of in Kent yesterday it was certainly nice to see plenty of sun today! 

Over on the MOD thread the BFTE has showed up again on the GFS 12z. Only two weeks away so what could go wrong?  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Some moderate sleet here in Herne which bodes well further inland perhaps!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Rain

As it is on the other side of the estuary atm

Actually intensity picked up now and more sleety in nature

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Dover, we now have heavy wet snow, not landing though. The snow is very wet.

Drizzle has temporarily turned to sleet here now!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

seems only the beast from the east delivers now to the far SE,,, where uppers are cold enough to give snow despite the warmer seas in our regionon even at 800 ft it was only wet snow,crude  on the downs,

Spot on. If it's not from the east or north east we are scuppered on the SE coasts these days. MO thread reporting further sliders this week so more of the same to come unfortunately

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Will it have enough ppn left

And will temps and dps drop sufficiently by then. Not getting my hopes up!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Hath been a crushing here.

Cold rain.

Obs for Manston show temp risen from 1.2c at 10am to 3.7c at 11. No chance here for the time being

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

26 minutes ago, terryall said:

Raining in Whitstable for a few minutes

Yep same here in H.Bay. Disappointing seeing as there are reports of a covering in Canterbury. Not surprising though with our locations

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, StLuke said:

Showers breaking out ahead of the main front between Ashford and Canterbury, any reports in the area? 

Was not expecting to see those radar returns. Hopefully more to come!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

I can see SE Essex missing out altogether - certainly looks as if the heavy stuff is already pivoting meaning it's likely to miss us in the far east of Essex

The best for SE Essex / East Kent would be later today when it moves back south east (post pivot) i reckon

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Anyone else struggling to see some of these video's posted?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

I think all of Kent will fail with this one except maybe sevenoaks.

West Kent should be okay i reckon

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Front is slowing which is great news

For you maybe

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

I'm just exhausted following all this, what with the uncertainties re:  direction of travel, placement of pivot, marginal on coasts, etc, etc. Mind you my East Kent location was a positive last wkend so unlikely to get lucky twice.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Hail / graupel shower has turned surfaces white here (Herne)

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

26 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I’m in Folkestone and expect only rain. Somehow Canterbury seems to do a little better than us, not sure what the elevation is there?

Canterbury City is only 20m asl but the hospital where I work is 150m. Distance from the coasts is the key parameter I expect