Supacell

Well I have a few days of thunder potential to look forward to. Friday is showing up as a day for some possible storm activity in eastern parts - Met Office has the thunder symbol across Lincolnshire and NMM has some decent CAPE across the SE half of the UK: CAPE a lot more subdued on the GFS but all charts show an area of convective rain crossing W to E through the day in some warm and humid subtropical air courtesy of the remnants of TS Bill. After this I fly out to Slovenia for 3 days/nights. Now whilst there are no super CAPE charts showing for that area the forecasts I am seeing all seem keen to break out one or two storms during the course of the weekend so I may see something. Then I have the possibilities back here in the UK next week. Although it is a long way off I am off work all next week so would chase if anything looks to happen within reachable distance.

It can on mine if it likes

Before the will it or won't it plume of next week the east of the country may have some interest on Friday. Even Friday is a long way off though and the risk is small, but there could be a few rumbles for the usual suspects (Lincolnshire). There is nothing big on the horizon until next weeks possible plume. Although it has only about a 1 in 4 chance of coming off it is at least keeping us storm nuts interested. I won't be getting excited to the same level I did about the last one though until I see a huge black wall cloud moving over with frequent lightning and constant thunder

Some quite pokey showers running W to E just to my north across the Peak District. I wonder if there is any chance of a sferic or two from that lot?

Just driven through a small storm not far from Burton. Now near EM Airport under light rain and the sun poking out. My weather app was pretty much spot on for timing.

Unfortunately for me, yes... fortunate for you though. Still a chance of some pulse storms anywhere south of Liverpool to Hull this afternoon though with the possibility of something a little more organised running across the Met Office warning area later this afternoon/evening.

A short pulse of thundery stuff just to the north of Birmingham. Currently there is very little deep layer shear modeled and so I would imagine any storms would be short lived. It is later on that shear increases - i.e 6-9pm but if things happen now and not later then things are not as promising for a more organised storm. Incidentally, my weather app is showing heavy thunderstorm here at 3pm. I will know in less than an hour how accurate it is.

Met Office rainfall prediction looks interesting for the S and E Midlands this evening. Having said that, it's seems to be starting early with a rash of showers breaking out already, which isn't really what I wanted.

06z better for me imby but not going to pay too much attention and wait for signs on radar instead. I have my camera charged and free from 4.

Providing the sun breaks through it would not take too much heating today to allow for some thunderstorms to develop across a large swathe of the southern half of the UK with forecasts still showing a trough feature running within the warm sector across southern England. The risk is from around mid afternoon across Wales and SW Midlands transferring eastwards through the late afternoon/evening. I would draw a line from the North Wales coastline across to Hull and say anywhere south of this line and northeast of Bristol. However, the best risk looks to be in the SE portion of this risk box and so Reading across to Essex and southwards. Deep layer shear is better further south and so a better chance of more organised storms here, although shear does improve further north from this evening. The problem would be if this coincides with or is just behind the best instability. PWAT values quite high today so any storms that develop could drop quite a lot of rain in a short space of time, especially in the southern portion of the risk zone.

I haven't even checked the charts but I will do in the morning. If by that time it looks good then I may start to get excited. I'm not travelling tomorrow though so unless there is something within a 20 mile radius of me then I'll see nothing. I'm going to Slovenia next Sat for a few days so maybe I will see something there :-)

I wish as I am off work all that week, so could even head off to Belgium. Unfortunately much more chance of that not verifying than verifying. Looks like some weak pulse thundery showers possible over the weekend into next week though.

I have bolded the word possibility as yes there was this possibility, which if you turn it around 180 degrees gives you the reason why all the forecasts said the possibility of thunderstorms. There were no forecasts that said a thunderstorm is a certainty. I do feel your pain, I am still getting over the disappointment myself, but unfortunately we cannot blame the forecasters, the mega computers or anything like that. It is just the unpredictability of the weather. I was optimistic myself but cloud cover spoilt the party for most. Welcome to this part of the forum by the way, I am sure the successful plume will come eventually

Just for fun, and because it helps me to reminisce, a few video stills of 10th May 2006, quality is poor as it was low light and I was using a low standard camcorder:

Yes I remember it well as I chased this storm, it was during my third year chasing storms in the UK. I intercepted the storm near to Cirencester and witnessed lightning strike a tree just outside my car. The storm started early evening and was still going after dark but by then my battery had run out on my old camcorder so I couldn't film anymore. There were so many CG bolts and crawlers in that storm though, a great night.

I doubt there are many, if any, exiting members after yesterdays efforts. tomp456, the time you are thinking of was June 2011, i believe the 28th. It was nicknamed El Gordo because storms would originate in Spain. I went out chasing that day and saw nothing. Then, as if to add insult to injury, there were huge storms the following morning directly over where I had been just 6 hours earlier. Yesterday was similar but not quote as bad as some did get a storm, I got the remnants of one south of London and thus far no kick in the knackers as yet :-)

A little disappointed in yesterday but alas this is the uk and weather is unpredictable, especially storms. I did see get myself just ahead of those storms across South London yesterday around 7pm, and was able to see one flash and rumble before it died. A lot of rain though, torrential for a time. On balance it was much less than I had hoped for and in hindsight not worth the petrol I used but hindsight is a great thing isn't it. I can't win them all and I take some pride in that I made the most of a day that just didn't turn out as planned. Thoroughly wet out there now and some showers to the south of the rain which are still quite pokey, but not thundery.

Please can you cut out the off topic posts. I am out chasing and just spent 5 minutes reading about being annoyed at forecasters and blaming them for the lack of storms 2 hours into the 12 hours of storm risk time! Yes, homegrowns look unlikely now but look south at N France, that is heading to the UK. That doesn't mean every single house in the risk zone will get struck by lightning though. Currently raining near to Oxford with big plump raindrops.

I am thinking I may need to head east as this is where the warmer temperatures are. It is very muggy here but more so around and north of London. I am thinking Luton/Aylesbury.

Clouds starting to look a bit thicker now and exhibiting darker bases as opposed to the white skies so far. Clutching at straws I know but i am still feeling hopeful.

Cell to the SW of London could produce, and heading directly for me. Fingers are crossed. Agree on humidity too, currently 22c with dp of 17c...sweaty.

Still sat just east of Oxford with roads to West London, the northern Home Counties, Newbury, Swindon, Cheltenham and Reading. Not sure where to head so going to stay put and eat :-)

Currently just outside Oxford with a few spots of rain outside and a muggy 22c despite the cloud. There was sunshine earlier though. Now just need it to kick off to my SE.

Why I realise waiting for storms can be stressful and lead to disappointment a lot of the posts over the last few pages are a) to premature as it is only 11:45 and b) more suited to the no storms thread. Come on people, chins up. If by 8pm there is nothing I will join you all with the disappointments.

I get a buzz whether out and about or at home, although the views from being out and about are much better than the houses i can see out of my windows at home. I do like the chase, as it is about trying to plot the sweet spot and then organizing to be somewhere in it whereby there are good road networks to intercept the storms if and when they come along. Storm chasing can lead to disappointment and there have been a few occasions whereby I have driven a distance to hear storms have gone over my house whilst I see nothing. However, I have seen many many more storms by chasing than if I just sat at home waiting for them to come to me.