Vikos

but what are your expectations? Narnia open end? unfortunately we all live too close to a sea that is too warm for that...

It is somehow a possible outcome… in Germany we call it south westerly stream development…

Don't know... could also been that it was a temperture BIAS from EC, too low prediction over landmass/over snow... from your link also interesting: M11. Stratospheric biases IFS representations of the stratosphere suffer from various biases, which may be negatively impacting upon the skill of some longer range tropospheric predictions. These include different temperature biases at different levels, excess moisture 'leakage' from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere and unrealistic springtime breakdown of the polar vortex in the seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5). The representations of ozone and (large amplitude) gravity waves are also problem areas. And I didn't know that EC was on GFS-Data somehow Ocean skin temperature In the ECMWF system the sea surface temperature is adopted from the daily NCEP analysis and kept constant during the forecast. This SST represents the ocean bulk temperature, typically 1 to 2 m deep. The bulk temperature is a sensible choice for an SST analysis, because it is more robust and persistent than the surface temperature and can be calibrated with ship and buoy observations. However, the ocean surface temperature can be different from the bulk temperature in particular in areas with low winds where the mixing between surface and bulk is weak (Fairall et al. 1996). https://www.ecmwf.int/file/21446/download?token=7EETwyWk

Thank you BA! Wonder if GFS still got that Attlantic-BIAS where it gave Atlantic-Lows to much power, like EC BIAS producing too strong continetal highs and their effects as a continetal block, saying lows won't make east easy

I read the rumor, that after imho +192h the GFS run cuts down the input data to 50% or so... something like that, can't remember what it was exactly...

Is it lack of experience of the models with such (unusual) conditions that causes such unrealistic outputs?

On Animation at wxcharts you can see how fast that low looses its powers… maybe nothing to worry so much about.

This thing makes landfall, bad things will happen

The site is really slow in building up, maybe time for a new threat?

Read in context

2023 won’t repeat, will be a super mild winter, so enjoy this years cold spell (/irony-mode off)

well that would be my personal day after tomorrow event

classic GFS vs EC

well, why not a polar high?

18z = winter open end

18 rolling out, enjoy the ride

Same for GFS, left side 10 days ago, right side todays outcome Everything beyond +120 is just

10 Days ago EC for today and today

Nothing startet, yet... Greenland High is not even established all the way, so keep calm

Away from the cold, this would be a quite strong storm event, nobody needs this

Wasn't EC on the same dope trip in 2010 when it said no-no to anythin winter'ish`just days before?

EC = Outlier....for shure!