Vikos

Welcome to Enjoy the models rollercoasterride! It's all D10 again! This moving/shifting cold block couldn't NOT be an issue/trouble-maker...(?) Do not trust D10 Charts!

I like that EC

Save this chart, if it becomes real, I will send you 10 Pounds via PayPal for your next pints (when pubs open up again)

Does this look (a bit) familiar to you?

So much snow!!! Love that Narnia charts!

Am I? My random (collected) worries...

For me those are "smaller details" in an overall pattern of moving the cold into the west. As we are in a forecast, locations of H and L will change a lot, also travelling routes of those. By now, the overall pattern is (I repeat myself) the transition of the cold block east to west. This pattern is also seen on the GFSop, GEM, JMA and even ICON 00z +12z 24th 25th

Wouldn't put to much trust into GFS (op+P) atm

Well, EC12z repeated 00z and shifted the cold block westwards over to canada. ----> ---> This ignites the cyclogenis. Where this ends up for NW-Europe, everybody should know. Ok, still a long way to go, but atm things don't look primed. Not depressive, not sarcastic, just realistic.

I agree somehow (and I feel that I am one of the mentioned). But (and it's a big but ) it's not that the models aren't showing anything good (=cold) in their schwifty (copyright Rick and Morty) outputs, it's the fact that they are delaying things and not getting into reachable time areas like lets say +144h. It's the wellknown 1 step forward, 2 steps back game that is happening. But ok, lets keep the faith and still listen to the background signals and the twitters, what else is there to do? Sitting in agony? No!

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Me. Would even order one at Wish! if they would deliver in time...

Does he mention where this is? Nowosibirsk is definitely still in game for some colder spells

See, this is a good example. Even with the best setup in years it fails and scratches always on the warmest/mildest outcome there possibly can be. It’s like we are witched. Without a wonder, a scandi high popping up or so, things look meh

Well, kind of resignation. The candle of opportunity is slowly dying, days get longer, and the models are playing the delaying game. I could kick myself for that i got sucked into the thrill of hunting d10 bfte charts, again.

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

So? We are reaching the bottom of the candle...

If things go that way then it is game over. The cold block shifted its position towards Canada, igniting the North Atlantic cyclogenesis. Endless autumn goes on. Very bad morning runs!

One day when some people will understand the system of calculating in deterministic weather models and the lack of data in mid-runs 06/18z ...

Comparisson +d10 EC 12z yesterday/today

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The comparison of the GFS Strat. Prognosis from January 20, 2021 (left) shows a direct hit in the analysis from January 25, 2021 (right): The analyzed air pressure distribution in the lower stratosphere at around 16 km altitude (100 hPa) is almost identical to the Forecast from January 20, 2021. The polar vortex is divided into a Eurasian main vortex and a Canadian partial vortex (split) by a high pressure bridge over northern Canada. A strong northern current leads from the Arctic over the North Sea directly to Western and Central Europe, a strong cold trough over the Baltic Sea steered the snowy trough to Central Europe on January 24th, 2021. ECMWF deserves the same praise.

A look in the stratosphere, there are still big question marks regarding the coupling between the vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) and the Troposphere (TPV). Repeatedly expected heat flows from the Asian Sector still do not allow a thorough regeneration of the vortex. At the beginning of the medium term range, in 10 hPa around the Laptev and Kara seas however, the medium term should shift rapidly towards Greenland, while an extensive anti-cyclone across the North Pacific sector did this forced "displacement" of the SPW. Similar, there is also the downtransition area SPV to TPV wich can be made out, although the vortex currents there is quite weak. It is interesting that at least the GEFS indicates a coupling at the beginning of the medium term. So far so good. However, numerics models have massive problems with the pressure forecast throughout the arctic area. This is evident in the distinctive run-to-run Discrepancies in the pressure minima of sometimes several hundred kilometers, as well repeated strongly changing cross-polar cold flows from the Asian sector initially in the Canadian, now increasingly in the Scandinavian / Siberian area (possibly consequences of the indicated coupling between SPV and TPV?). A look at the ensemble spread also shows Uncertainties quickly become so lasting that any detailed work becomes obsolete. But what is noticeable in the troposphere is an increase in the wave number comparatively short amplitudes and thus increased progressivity. This wave train is forced by repeated positive ones anomaly maxima in the 500 hPa geopotential field around the Aleutian Islands. These wander swiftly over North America to the east, but on a southerly track. This is owed due an abnormally high geopotential over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or, in other words, a retrograde to the west offset negative NAO anomaly, which is even increasingly starting to the west, that the calculated NAO gradually slips towards the 0-line. The NAO / AO however, remain in the negative range, with the member scatter at the end of the Increases dramatically in the medium term, but this is due to the shift of the TPV in the direction of Greenland, this caues a development wich is close to North Pole for then falling geopotential. This southern Rossby wave train now interacts over the medium term with an air mass over the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which is extremely warm with a view to the model climate (e.g. caused due to largely positive anomalies of the water surface temperature, but also by remnants of an intense subtropical that predominated until recently Anticyclones over the Canaries, the strong desert air advehed to the west and further heated by subsidence). This air mass is between the vigorous Atlantic lows and an anticyclone over Morocco, and it is (slowly weakening) led to the northeast. Although the air mass cools down a little when it is lifted, nevertheless, the medium term can exceed 850 hPa in south-west and south of Europe Temperature values of 10-15 degrees are expected. The EFI underlines that unusual warmth in southwestern Europe with values of 0.8-1 and an SOT of partly over +1. If you look at the corresponding CDFs, you can see very steep ones Gradients (signs of high security) in the record range. Also the EFI 2m values (weekly averaged) this medium-term is about between the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa between 0.8 and 1 and on the basis of selected meteograms we are beyond the 99th percentile. Or in other words: Record values are particularly possible in Spain and across North Africa. The western edge of this warm air mass gets in track of the rain Atlantic Low pressure Activity that initiates a pronounced so-called "atmospheric flow", which leads with predicted integrated water vapor values of 30-40 mm much moisture in to Western and partly also to Central Europe. That means that from the west swiveling low pressure areas following an abnormally warm and humid Have air mass and thus abundant precipitation for parts of Western and Central Europe becomes an issue.

A look in the stratosphere, there are still big question marks regarding the coupling between the vortex in the stratosphere (SPV) and the Troposphere (TPV). Repeatedly expected heat flows from the Asian Sector still do not allow a thorough regeneration of the vortex. At the beginning of the medium term range, in 10 hPa around the Laptev and Kara seas however, the medium term should shift rapidly towards Greenland, while an extensive anti-cyclone across the North Pacific sector did this forced "displacement" of the SPW. Similar, there is also the downtransition area SPV to TPV wich can be made out, although the vortex currents there is quite weak. It is interesting that at least the GEFS indicates a coupling at the beginning of the medium term. So far so good. However, numerics models have massive problems with the pressure forecast throughout the arctic area. This is evident in the distinctive run-to-run Discrepancies in the pressure minima of sometimes several hundred kilometers, as well repeated strongly changing cross-polar cold flows from the Asian sector initially in the Canadian, now increasingly in the Scandinavian / Siberian area (possibly consequences of the indicated coupling between SPV and TPV?). A look at the ensemble spread also shows Uncertainties quickly become so lasting that any detailed work becomes obsolete. But what is noticeable in the troposphere is an increase in the wave number comparatively short amplitudes and thus increased progressivity. This wave train is forced by repeated positive ones anomaly maxima in the 500 hPa geopotential field around the Aleutian Islands. These wander swiftly over North America to the east, but on a southerly track. This is owed due an abnormally high geopotential over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or, in other words, a retrograde to the west offset negative NAO anomaly, which is even increasingly starting to the west, that the calculated NAO gradually slips towards the 0-line. The NAO / AO however, remain in the negative range, with the member scatter at the end of the Increases dramatically in the medium term, but this is due to the shift of the TPV in the direction of Greenland, this caues a development wich is close to North Pole for then falling geopotential. This southern Rossby wave train now interacts over the medium term with an air mass over the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which is extremely warm with a view to the model climate (e.g. caused due to largely positive anomalies of the water surface temperature, but also by remnants of an intense subtropical that predominated until recently Anticyclones over the Canaries, the strong desert air advehed to the west and further heated by subsidence). This air mass is between the vigorous Atlantic lows and an anticyclone over Morocco, and it is (slowly weakening) led to the northeast. Although the air mass cools down a little when it is lifted, nevertheless, the medium term can exceed 850 hPa in south-west and south of Europe Temperature values of 10-15 degrees are expected. The EFI underlines that unusual warmth in southwestern Europe with values of 0.8-1 and an SOT of partly over +1. If you look at the corresponding CDFs, you can see very steep ones Gradients (signs of high security) in the record range. Also the EFI 2m values (weekly averaged) this medium-term is about between the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa between 0.8 and 1 and on the basis of selected meteograms we are beyond the 99th percentile. Or in other words: Record values are particularly possible in Spain and across North Africa. The western edge of this warm air mass gets in track of the rain Atlantic Low pressure Activity that initiates a pronounced so-called "atmospheric flow", which leads with predicted integrated water vapor values of 30-40 mm much moisture in to Western and partly also to Central Europe. That means that from the west swiveling low pressure areas following an abnormally warm and humid Have air mass and thus abundant precipitation for parts of Western and Central Europe becomes an issue.