Vikos

The cold air is no longer retained at the North Pole, it flows out to lower latitudes and fires up low pressure production (cyclogenesis) in N-Atlantic. 2 comments at this point. First: In the Scandinavian area, the cold air from the open sea southeast of Spitsbergen is softened. This is not the case in Canada - the breeding ground for the Atlantic lows - where it encounters ice and snow. These are the northernmost land masses on earth. And secondly, there is an easterly current on the north side of the lows, with which the Siberian cold air is carried past the southern tip of Greenland to northern Canada and the Labrador Sea, in turn into the nutrient zone of the Atlantic lows The whole thing even with a negative NAO, because on the north side of the Atlantic lows near Iceland there is a slight high pressure tendency and the lows tend to influence the Azores, no contradiction. 2 plus points for the Atlantic against the Siberian cold air. Thats our problem.

This I was to write about, even further in mid-term changes aren't so signicantly. This is rather unusual, mostly for winter time. Is there a (big) disturbance or a signal in the background forcing the models to miscalculate or be misled? Hmmm....

That shifted azoric high...

LOL! Made my day! That clown reference I will post those Scenarios as they give a bit more informations on NAO and stuff... And check your PM's EDIT: FU (not that what you think, dude!) Berlin is where I put my money on.

Well, in synoptics, one never writes anything off or on Synoptic "freaks" (try to) predict, and if they found to be false, they just say, ehh, its a chotic system, you never know, sorry I had posted some howmöllers over to @bluearmy but got no response yet. I found them to be lets say promising. Matchday forme around 25th, after that storm low moved on.

We talked about ENS and their strongs and weaks already Let's wait for those 12z EC scenarios, they will be available within one hour or so. I am quite excited....

This can change. Signals are given. And those are not yet to be found on deterministic outputs.

It updated the charts, but the gif is still good

One must seperate the outcomes of a SSWE. Displacement or even Split. If Split, where is the axis? If displacement, where are the boundaries, how are the flows affected? This actual SSW is a displacement, and ME/WE is at the westerly boundaries, so to say battleground of air masses. That's a bit of bad luck ATM, but with some minor warmings, may it will split... See left down corner? Temp_max is raising

I put my bet on this storm low, it will do some damage to the patterns (I guess). So 21st - 25th is my time of change, anything after that is pure guessing.

wouldn’t say... negative and predicted to stay negative.

Was there ever a doubt that it won’t be like that? ? lets see what ec delivery brings us for lunch. I ordered something cold...

No one dares to shout out BOOOOM, yet?

This is what I’ve been trying to tell for ages now. Thank you for your post!

Source: http://untamedskies.com/climate-variabilities/#MJO

@bluearmy any thoughts? Conditions for 3.12.2020

Maybe it raises some hopes. CFS was by now very conservative with Highs to the nord, but it seems they did a smal turnaround. Don't loose the faith in cold. Nothing is lost and we have still plenty of time ahead.

I personally am against mean charts after d4 as the get too diffuse. I will try to specify why: The advantage of the ENS mean is purely statistical and must be understood as such. From a synoptic point of view, however, averaged maps show unreal situations. This becomes immediately clear to you when you imagine a bifurcation (and every deviation, no matter how small, is in principle the beginning of a bifurcation). Both branches develop on the basis of calculations of physical driving forces and reflect physically real scenarios in the calculated state space. But if one determines a mean from both, this yields points (in the state space) that have a physically indeterminate or non-evident history and in principle can even be impossible themselves. This also corresponds to the effect that averaged maps seem somehow unreal (for the synoptically trained eye). And then there is another very nasty effect: in error calculations, quadratic error sums are evaluated. Large differences are therefore particularly pronounced. It is similar with correlation. However, the averaging irons out these differences. In terms of quantity, the pretense of a forecast quality that is not even given because the averaged maps only reproduce the spatial details with low accuracy. Main run + control + ens = low variance -> rel. reliable prediction or fundamental error in the model Main run + control same; ens scatter heavily -> ens are negligible (however sensitive weather conditions) main / control show direction unless fundamental errors Main run sole runaway control + ens together -> either anticipation of the main run ) or problem in a higher resolution ("mother of all outliers") As a result, the Ens can never (apart from the resolution errors) come close to the main run in terms of quality, because disturbed initial conditions and worse resolved. You can only test the main run for quality and safety (if you disregard fundamental model errors). If an Ens applies, it is usually a coincidence (exception: disturbed initial condition is not irrelevant in the actual in the model) This also applies to the mean value as well as the Ens mean value. One can only speak of a "trend" here if everyone agrees. Only then can the Ens mean value be used. Hope you get my point...

EC 00z Scenarios

Well, it can't last forver, though. That's just plain physics of reaction and counterreaction I would say. Lets just wait and see, M-R-N

And thanks again, BA. What more to say than a classical: "More runs needed" The only thing you and me are shownig at long last are the uncertainties of mid-term (not to speak about mid-to-long-term) predictions atm.

Thanks Griff. Others may see things diffrent, but for me this is one of the first signs in our heights (off the ssw)

Thanks for your answer. I will say, that once the easterly flow is developed, with that snow and ice coverage to the east and a rather neg AO/NAO (westerlies will have to fight hard against cold ground air masses and flows), it will just strengthen up. So while I am not living at the pole, I am very happy with this signal (snow in garden tralala), and as I mentioned in strat thread, EC Outputs are quite reliable on that timeframe.

First hint of easterly flows in trop at our latitude? See those -20is, they "dropped" down... That's the reversal we need. I think. ssw outcome. see strat thread why I think that this is about to happen as EC is very good in prognosis of Strat effects.