Vikos

Thank you. Now it's the question which influences there have been for the forecast to be wrong. Was it the SSW? Or even less airplane traffic (C0/NOX/trails) due Covid? Right now we are on the standards of first years of the 80's regarding air traffic all over the world.

Temperatures in the NH are dropping fast, that is an outcome of those stratospheric disturbances taking their influences.

It's another effect of the stratospheric development that can be seen. The temperature anomaly of the entire northern hemisphere experiences a real crash, which means that the temperatures on the continents are falling. This is no accident, so there are reasons. And this is even so as GFS has a real warm BIAS.

Seems there is a massive drop predicted in the northern hemisphere for the end of that month

Does this also apply to the EC MJO? It looks a bit more conservative without so many outliers then GFS Phase 7 is preferred

Maybe it's just a feeling, but could it be that the models swing at shorter intervals? Is it a background signal that has a massive impact on the prognosis? MJO? FI is (more hope than knowledge) Around 72/96hr

So true!

Outlier for me

Comparing EC 12z yesterday and today @ 29th (in the middle todays 00z) Not very good perfomance, either atm

I see this Iberia high and have the melody of "hello darkness my old friend (sound of silence" in my mind. This would be a gameover

I do, maybe not to local (yet), but that cold pool is growing big time! If we manage to put our straws in this ice cold sangria bucket... From to ---> It seems it sucks all the cold away from Canada

Ok, there you go The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1. For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastiaan1973 postet a paper about the downwelling events of SSWE

Do you want a rather pessemistic or a rather optimistic outlook?

Sometimes, one has just to say The trend is your friend So, the trend is going the right way for coldies, outcome yet very diffuse regarding where H and L lay, but the trend is a rather colder end of January to a cold start of February. Not more, not less.

+144h is still my FI mark, deterministic models struggle to give a good mid-term outlook.

EC Scenarios 12z Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

Still no doubt about it. A bit cherry picking, but hey, this is the models thread

Split? Triplit

For me, this looks good

I like this maps (alot) GFS OP GFSp

Those background signals....

Hmm. Doesn’t look so mild...

No, we say „immer nur in der Glaskugel“ wich means those BOOOM charts always are in the gipsy Cristal ball (this thing they use to predict the future...)

The mood in here is like the d10 correlation graph from GFS. Ups and downs every 6h ?

Just some eyecandy to lighten up your day