Vikos

If we just would accept, that the NW of Europe isn't THE ALPS, ones would have a easyer life for shure. I am on ca. 200m ASL, and had snow for a couple of hours, frost only a few nights, but I am not moaning about it as others do. That's maybe the difference in enthusiasm, ones are interested in snowfall in their garden, others (like me) are interested in overall synoptics and don't give a great s... about local outcomes. Last year, for example, we had a night, when 850 raised from -8 to +4 within 2-3 hours, with heavy precipitations going trhough all physical states of water, snow, ice drops, rain. I loved it!

All plausible, but after seeing the EZ Scenarios yesterday, I doubt, that EC is performaning very good ATM, so I have little trust.

Why you drop the 10day 850is GIF? For our part of the world it doens't it remains the same. No cold weather. Isn't this the synoptics thread, not the regional weather thread? Sorry, I am in the wrong thread, then...

Thanks. Updated it, so press STRG+F5 for full reload of the site, then they should show. Sorry....

Can you name the layer? Ok, 10hpa, thats upper Strat. In 150hpa I can't find the reversal (yet). Note: 150hpa is lowest Strat, more like Tropopause, 11.000meters hight Nor in 100hpa This is the strongest reversal I found in 30hpa, impressing -0.8m/s but will turn positive in 10d forcast What I want to say, that a reversal "downstairs" hasn't yet happend ( or I am just to blind to see it in the charts)

Aha, so it seems, they can handle it? 14th 00z vs 16th 00z for 24-1-21 Now 25th in comparission today 00z / yesterdays 00z Or lets do it with a 10 days prognosis of 850is for today 6th Jan +10 days I hope you get my point...

Yes, could be that effects will somehow delay. Every SSWE is different, it’s overall a chaotic system, small butterfly effects can cause huge differences in oncoming outputs. Deterministic weather models are just trying to organise this chaos with mathematics and statistics, they do somehow good for 3,4 days but then the quality drops fast, with an unpredictable SSWE outcome even more, one can see this in the verification graphs some see the charts and forget that they are not flat, the atmosphere is 3D with a lot of fluxes, raises drops of air masses etc for example a strong winter storm low is like a mixer, it Quirles the atmosphere with so much energy that it often changes patterns to a total different outcome as predicted that’s why I’m saying that they can act like dooropeners so, whatever the models are trying to forecast, it can be a 180* turnaround next week without any signs of today wait, lean back and keep the faith

I think we have a problem with ECMWF

Just for fun, doesn't mean anything

18z yesterday vs 18z today 12z yesterday vs 12z today

Wow

People don't always have to find a conclusion. That is called a discussion. That is what forums are made for Let's just end it here and go on with the 18z runs A virtual pint from me to those who discussed with me. Cheers!

And again... I am not in any way frustrated about any outcome here or elsewhere on the planet. And again, you show charts in a "far" distance, also the first is a mean chart. You should do some research on mean or median in statistics. In lager timeframes they often tend to get very diffuse. I get yout point. And you are right. But again, those things did not happend yet, so by now, we don't have a outcome of the SSW.

You show a +246h chart. Serious? Sorry, but that doesn't count for me as it is not resilient in that timeframe. But ok, that is just my point of view. No need to get an anger about it

Sorry, there are no outcomes yet wich I would consider as an effect of the SSW. So please show me wich ones you actually mean. Patterns are way to unsteady for any solid predictions. I am getting tired of repeating this.

I did not say that SSW was the punch for a modelflip in 2010. But it can be the the impulse for a model flip.

Just not true. It is the position of the displacement, and where you are located at. See the strat thread...

A flip would be a strong Scandi high in the charts of let's say Monday, Tuesday for day 7-9 (no I don't say d10 ). Out of nowhere as a effect of the SSW. You never know. + The whole weather system is a chaotic system. NOBODY can ever predict its excact outcome! People seem to forget this as they think that Models calculated by computers with randomized inputs can. Even with a bunch of Master degrees in statistics no one can. It is impossible!

I would not consider this as a direct effect of the SSW. Just to early for...

Mean charts after day 4/5 are rather useless as they get too diffuse .. but... if it is a tradition, why not...

Not quite right, they did flip in short term in 2010 if I remember it the right way...

Did it happen already? Or is it about to come at day 9/10?

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

Google it

Some of you guys don't seem to follow the Strat Thread. Strat is in a real mess right now, warming was now 10 days ago, reflections to Trop are just about to start (+14 days, sometimes even more). Models will pick up major changes when they occur, there is just not enough data for predictions, as the knowledge about influences Strat<->Trop are not fully known yet. To say that winter is over and to moan over some "bad" outputs is not adequate in a (semi) professional synoptics thread, I think. Yet this sensless comparission of 06z/12z runs (or 18z/00z) is a punch in the stomach for everybody interested in synoptics in the way it is ment do be done. So again, everything beyond 120h is Didi-Land, we need that downwelling first in full effect...