Vikos

If it moves to 6/7 we should see a swing to blockings soon in EC outputs...

2 Scenarios for +240 with a 72% Cluster is FI

Well, you live so close the the "hot" sea, what do you except? M-Europe climate is ALWAYS domintated by ATLANTIC REGIME due the gulf stream. Climate changes do the rest (ice coverage, sea ice cover etc). The idea of prolonged ice-cold spells that last over weeks, well, that is history now. I did not have significant winter since years, and I am in the middle of Germany, even farer away from the boiling north sea...

Thanks, updated them Press STRG+F5 for full refresh of this site

ECMWF is amazing! Prediction from 10 days ago (UPDATE: charts are +216h now, they updated) Outcome today Considering the really great 10day-performance of ECMWF we have to look at this chart then for the lower Stratosphere (can be mirrored to the upper Troposphere/Tropopause) We see the large displacement of the Vortex is locked down solid until at least the 24th. We are currently in the transition phase in the troposphere towards displacement, which acts on the tropsophere from above in the stratosphere. This goes hand in hand with a decrease in the zonal westerly wind in the tropsphere towards an easterly wind. This will happen over the next 3 to 4 days. Prediction from 9 days ago ---> So NAO and AO will remain stricktly in negative, so wie remain in a strongly disturbed circulation withgin the next 10 days (at least). This is what the zonal mean wind charts is showing, and predicting that ECMWF stays solid with it good calculations, there is little doubt about it. However, it should also be mentioned that Central Europe will be located pretty much at the southern end of the elongated displacement. Sometimes on the edge, sometimes well covered by it. The further the displacement expands to southern Europe, the more wintry it will be in Central to West Europe. Another aspect is that if the displacement is very southerly, it will probably not be able to expand further to North Africa, but will then form a western axis. This may lead a mild component to Central/West Europe. How strong or if at all is still not knwon. The models will have their problems with it, because all of this is a very rare starting point and the past values are certainly missing in the programming in those global weather models. As mentioned before, we only had about 26 SSW in the last 40 years. And 40 years ago there where no giga Computers... So, let's keep the faithm things are looking really good! And if the TPV splits...

One reason for the uncertainties is that between 1979 and 2019 only 26 sudden stratospheric warmings occurred. In addition to the small amount of data, it was also found that these events were associated with a high degree of variability with regard to the effects on the troposphere, our weather layer. /SiteGlobals/StyleBundles/Bilder/Allgemein/OpenGraphImage-DWD-Logo.jpg;jsessionid=5CDFD43526DF0C94149AE6E94A24DED6.live11042?__blob=normal&v=3

Around 10 days... impacts to trop mostly after 14 days, sometimes even more...

Skandi, high?

Was there ever a doubt about it? ? as I mentioned in the Morning, we See a Swing-back. But there will be more Swings to come, so lean back and don’t take every run as done...

A short explanation why models do you from very mild to cold

After we had the first wind reversal at the beginning of January, the next should take place in the second half of January, which is definitely a striking event for the stratosphere. The question now arises how this development can affect our weather, including the results of the scientific study by Domeisen et al. is used: This work comes to the conclusion that after a SSW, from a statistical point of view, a clearly negative NAO (see DWD Lexicon) often prevails. It is also stated that, depending on the respective general weather situation at the time of SSW, certain scenarios for the weather events subsequently arise in Northern and Central Europe, among others. In fact, in the coming weeks the cold air body that has so far prevailed over South and East Asia will increasingly shift to Siberia and also include Scandinavia - see the graphic attached to the topic of the day, where the anomaly values (deviations) of the 2 m temperature from one 20-year model climatology for January 18-25, 2021. The prediction is made more difficult by the fact that the approach of the Arctic body of cold air increases the temperature contrasts between the land masses and the North Atlantic, including to Canada. This stimulates the formation of strong low pressure areas. Their influence on Europe in the form of very mild air masses and the Arctic cold air expanding into Northern Europe are a breeding ground for events that may potentially deviate from the climate, be it in the form of particularly mild / stormy phases or strong north / east winds with icy cold. The past has shown that strong cold air ingresses occur more frequently in Northern and Central Europe after an SSW, but there is no guarantee for this. The option for a section with arctic air masses is given solely by the proximity of the body of cold air, as well as the formation of distinctive air mass boundaries with all the harassment that winter weather has to offer. This is also shown by the wild jumping of the weather models in the extended medium term (end of January) between very warm and icy cold, but very often with increased storm potential for Western and partly also Central Europe. Since the effects of a SSW, should you work your way down, influence the weather in the troposphere with an average of around 10 to 15 days delay, but a technically exciting second half of January and an interesting February can be expected. How extreme such an event can be became apparent at the turn of the year in the Asia-North Pacific sector. Since the polar vortex weakened early, especially over Asia, there repeatedly icy polar air flowed south and drove the air pressure in Mongolia, among other places, to over 1090 hPa at the end of December, which would represent a new world record after verification. After the icy air mass reached the north-western North Pacific with maximum temperatures of well below minus 40 degrees Celsius, numerous violent storm lows developed, with a core pressure of estimated 921 hPa and 924.8 hPa (both records) measured on Shemya (Alaska) at the turn of the year has blown the previous air pressure record for extra-tropical low pressure areas in the North Pacific. In addition, massive snow fell over parts of Japan (in the mountainous regions and partly down to the coastal regions) (e.g. Takada with 103 cm in 24 hours and 187 cm in 72 hours, both values an all-time record even for the snow-tested region). Source: /SiteGlobals/StyleBundles/Bilder/Allgemein/OpenGraphImage-DWD-Logo.jpg;jsessionid=5CDFD43526DF0C94149AE6E94A24DED6.live11042?__blob=normal&v=3 Wetter und Klima - Deutscher Wetterdienst - Neuestes Thema des Tages WWW.DWD.DE

Could be. But I think that those ENS did a step back from very mild versions. maybe it isn’t the worst thing to see that ridge „gone“, maybe we get something else, something better? FI isn’t to far away these days...

Is it just me or is the pendulum slowly, step-by-step swinging back in the world of synoptic weather models? I am just excited about the evening runs, also for those EC 00z scenarios...

Gateopener?

+144 00z/06z, this polar high is stretching....

updated

Some changes even in closer range

Well, there are some things to be seen rational 30hPa, note the neg winds till the end of run ---> ---> 150hPa (lower Strat) ---> ---> We have a dipole on the North American side, one could call it a Trump trough , Trump's days are numbered too. This will dissolve by January 18th. This change is already underway and of course that means a lot of dynamism in the weather kitchen. But all resistance is pointless, we remain in a wintry weather phase. Still (much?) snow, gradual cooling, then intensified frost. And when this permanent trough wants to log off, then there is a freezing phase. I think it would be possible as a time window from the turn of the month to February when freezers doors open up. Outcome: Massive displacement of PV, the whole PV goes to the Eurasian side and wil be "glued down" there for a long time (with long term outcomes for the coming months)

Still, it 13-1-2021, not 13-3-2021... we need to keep the faith or go for a new hobby....

Not only in your country. Seeing Spain drowning in snow while we have this wonderful green-brown enviroment is... the word with f and cked at the end plus an "up". It's like beeing cursed, even the best options don't deliver anymore. My last hope is a radical switch after the 20th as it was always pronounced to be the turn-over-point. I am confident that February will deliver some strong easterlys. EC (12z) is still promising

Mild interludes are normal in cold winters prior cold spells. We are still in mid January with at least 6 weeks and more of pure winter time and chances. Don’t throw away your guns! Remember 2010 when models flipped in short range...

Synoptic development until Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 The large-scale development in the Atlantic-European area is characterized by rather meridional flow patterns. High geopotential extends over the Atlantic to the Arctic, on the other hand the frontal zone is in parts Eurasia moved far south. That can meanwhile as a yourself adjusting tropospheric pattern after the sudden Stratospheric warming on January 5th / 6th, 2021. Accordingly both the AO and the NAO index are still in negative territory. The further development (also beyond the medium term) becomes probable still influenced by this, although the forecast uncertainty is relatively high remains. In addition, in the middle of the month the zonally averaged zonal wind should be 60 degrees N and 10 hPa reverse again, i.e. turn to east wind, after which with a with a certain delay also another tropospheric arctic or Greenland blocking should be supported. Indeed, found in the further clusters of the IFS usable signals for this. This would also mean in Northern and Central Europe from around the middle of next week the solutions with Northern or Northeast increasing cyclonally again. Another point could be the gradual Displacement of the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortices as a result of Split and displacement more to Northern Siberia / Asia and the associated ones high values of Potential Vorticity (PV in the upper troposphere and lower Stratosphere) also in its peripheral area (Central and Eastern Europe) for a provide more lasting cooling. Actio is called reactio in physics, and in fact lives as Counterweight (and increased uncertainty factor for the model world) also the Low pressure activity over the Atlantic (starting from Canada / Newfoundland) again clearly on. That could also be related to the fact that as a result of high Geopotential over the eastern North Pacific also increased over North America arctic air masses flow out at relatively high Sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic increased rapidly cyclogenesis could promote. The high geopotential over the North Pacific should turn be associated with the ongoing La Nina. The Deep developments over the North Atlantic could be increasingly high on the front side Enforce geopotential over Greenland. This would create a geopotential bridge, sloping forward to reach the Arctic. That would clear the way for the circulation pattern described above (see also EC from the middle of next Week).

I know. Just opened my eyes, should have waited a bit more. We’ll see...

I saved this chart. It’s just stunning. Pyramids will be covered with snow.