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Everything posted by Vikos
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
Vikos replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looking good for a Split upstairs. But still needs to reach troposphere. Downwelling will take some time, no signals on a PVS in troposphere, yet 10hPa 30hPa in 50hPa winds slow down, but no negatives, but patterns seem to follow upper levels. In 150hPa (Strat-2-Tropo layer) still looking quite zonal, winds remain all positive Regarding those zonal winds, well.... From to----> Wait and see. Honestly, atm I see a patt situation, outcome unknown. GFS looks good, though.- 1,801 replies
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EC Scenarios 12z Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern. So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)
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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020
Vikos replied to SqueakheartLW's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yep, those background signals... along with the EC charts of 30hpa.- 1,801 replies
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Well, that's way out of my understanding range, but ok, if you think so, why not. You must have your reasons for that. I won't crawl throu 10 pages back now of postings to find them. That the overall patterns show a milder interlude, that's safe, but I wouldn't bank anythink after next weekend. Things can change fast, it's still very dynamic with a lot of powerful fluxes.
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Sorry, dude, but this isn't the moan thread. Synoptics is the prediction of an outcome, not the hope for an special outcome. That's the game! If hope on a certain weather pattern is your goal, than mid-to-long-term synoptics is maybe the wrong hobby to do. For me, every thrilling synoptic outlook is favourable. Let it be heavy rain, strong storms in autum, snowfalls, winter thunderstorms or even blizzards, heat waves in summer and their dramatic ends with huge MSC systems. As long as it isn't boring for ages I am fine with any weather pattern.
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Good mornig! I get a smell of a pattern/flow change. This is lower strat at 30hpA 10day forecast---> Would take some time for further downstream development, but signal look quite good for some N/Neasterly currents around change of month. So we have to ride this mild wave, wich is quite common in colder winters. I doubt that we will have to suffer for a prolonged time with mildish westly winds.
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From a german outlook site: On January 17th, 2021, GFS expects that the polar vortex of Greenland at a height of around 16km (100 hPa, left) will join the main vortex over Siberia as a European trough by January 21st, 2021 (middle), thus turning the high-altitude current over Western and Central Europe on SW and there is temporary mitigation. With the further shift of the European trough to the east (right), the current turns back to NW directions and it will be wintry again on the weekend of January 23/24, 2021.
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I am one of those who belives in Feb and a bit of March, since I tend to say that seasons have shifted a bit, so autum is going almost up to late december (with first cold spells around end of Nov), while summer epsiodes start quite early. Even with that SSWE in mind, my fear is that we get stucked in some colderly patterns for at least 2 months ongoing and at the end warmer spells will be a reliev we wish for...