Vikos

EC stays rock solid

short sumup:

All I can say after nearly 15 years of model-watching is (about GFS): If it wiggels and wobbels within short time it doesn't really have a clue...

Those massivly shifted NH patterns and the PV beeing nearly completly over Asia-Russia some could say that HAARP is involved...

EC12z = Canada/America dead, bigger chunk of Vortex over Asia/siberia, prob. ready for western'ish outbreak... maybe not now but in the future, 2nd-3rd decade of december... glas half full

no need to roll eyes, I know that those charts rather worthless, but (big but ) at least for my region on the continet they are a a bit of a guideline. mostly cold spells from the east are rather dry (to the bones)...

According GFS 12z, no On the other side, GEM gives a thumbs up

Isn't this what's all about?

Aside of maybe some lower temps, nothing to freak out 'bout...

This flip just shows us not to believe in things that are more than 3 to 4 days away. But we will never learn and keep faith and trust in some computer generated charts wich are under massive influence of butterfly effects. I am shure we will see a flip back to colder charts within the next days. It's swining like a piggy tail. Stay positive

West at it's best, it is

Ok FI on EC is +144h as there are already huge changes to 00z

Op in the smallest cluster But yet we go crazy over it...

The Beast 2.0 - It never happens (again!)

At least one who got it But hey, don't take the toys away from the kids!

Lets get dizzy 00z vs 06z Don't take anything serious Wobble Wobble

Have you EVER reviewed one of those charts because you keep posting those total accumulation charts constantly? What's the probability of occurrence? Any details on that? TIA

ECM d10 vs d3

Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.

EC is on the outter rim of possibilities, GEFS looking good with a stunning control run. But I would not say it's the last chance. Patterns are good, cold is very near (on the continent) ---> Russia

EC is like laughing into a loaded barrel while saying that’s only training ammo...

I love how the most in here are trying to bring order to a chaotic system. Note: not even the best and expensive super duper IBM computers can. Some should study the functions of deterministic weather modelling. Ups, that takes ages and ends with a diploma in meteorology...

Very right words! Problem is, that some in here are building up an (mostly irrational) tension and thrill with inflationary posting every single chart of every single model run there is, in a stakkto'ish phasing with words like "BOOM" and lots of emoticons, mostly for charts that are past the magic timeline of +168h. This naturally ends in either deep depression or over-excitment with the next set of runs. EC is looking good at their cluster analysies and still no need to worry about, alot of small pattern changes, can be butterfly flaps with different outcomes localy, but overall still very wintry and cold. No signgs of dramtic and prolonged mild or even spring

Isn't it always @ D10 ?

We will see in the ENS. I think it's an enormous outlier or some major issues in the deterministic input values that got EC off the track. Or some background signals disturbing both big models...?