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Drifter

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Everything posted by Drifter

  1. Drifter
    Run the charts through day by day and focus on Italy. They don’t seem to have any ‘weather’ for the next two weeks. Literally nothing happens in that part of the world - must be extremely boring!
  2. Drifter
    Well you may remember I was quite upbeat yesterday - that has been blown away by this morning’s runs. No promise whatsoever and their must be 4 or 5 named storms in the next fortnight!
  3. Drifter
    Cold high over the pole, vortex split all over the shop, jet stream looking more amplified etc. Id expect the high to ridge over us towards Iceland on the next frame Trust me, my Spidey senses are tingling for this.
  4. Drifter
    As per my post above, I actually see promise in that.
  5. Drifter
    I’d love to know if there is an extended ECM - would like to know if a Scandi High develops by day 15. Things seem to be ‘happening’ on the day 9 and 10 charts.
  6. Drifter
    Nice. It seems most people have given up, it’ll be hilarious if a big freeze now appears.
  7. Drifter
    Nice day 7 mean.
  8. Drifter
    Yes, the control run is almost reminiscent of some of the colder runs from a couple of days ago.
  9. Drifter
    Well here’s the Scandi blocking emerging.
  10. Drifter
    Cold zonality doesn’t exist anymore (except in medium range synoptic charts). In reality, nearer the time the uppers gradually get moderated, the winds change from NW’lys so SW’lys etc.
  11. Drifter
    Agree totally. It’s why I don’t see the obsession with what it shows every Thursday. Has a prediction ever come to fruition at 21 days, let alone 42 (except during raging zonality)? You will find there’s always *something* to explain it away too such as a rogue winter storm, an AAM uptick, an unexpected mountain torque event etc. The only longer range stuff I have faith in is stratosphere related - this does seem to be quite predictable at longer range.
  12. Drifter
    Wait - haven’t you already posted this remark already tonight?
  13. Drifter
    I didn’t say it would back west to impact us immediately. The trough is disrupting and filling over Scandinavia which would allow the Russian high to back west. We’d then have to wait for another round of disruption for to back westwards again. Discontinuous Retrogression, if we need another buzzword/phrase.
  14. Drifter
    Things definitely happening out east. Day 7 UKMO If you run the sequence, there’s definitely a brick wall appearing - if we went to day 10 I’d expect that area of HP to extend to Scandinavia.
  15. Drifter
    UKMO offering some longer term interest with heights rising out east.
  16. Drifter
    As ever, it would seem the GFS has led us up the garden path once again.
  17. Drifter
    That tweet you are referring to is nearly a week old. Perhaps things have changed since then?
  18. Drifter
    Quite comical how GFS is subtly reducing Greenland heights every run to almost nothing.
  19. Drifter
    I believe the control uses the same starting data as the op. The other ens use slight tweaks to starting conditions. Happy to be corrected.
  20. Drifter
    This one’s a bust I think - looks like the lows have now stopped moving east and here comes the euro high.
  21. Drifter
    Appalling ECM at 168. Literally the polar opposite of GFS. Chaos!
  22. Drifter
    Yes, it’s normally called ‘unsettled’.
  23. Drifter
    So it’s just a term you’ve made up? How do the US guys that you mentioned apply to this?
  24. Drifter
    The 96hr ECM chart already looks drastically different to any other run?
  25. Drifter
    200 miles further south please.
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