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Everything posted by Eastern Scotland WX
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I have issued a snow watch for tomorrow and Thursday: A cold front will move SE during Wednesday morning before clearing all areas in Scotland by Wednesday evening. Following this front will be colder air but also very low 500mb heights which aids to plenty of instability for widespread shower development. I have also noticed that the air temperature at 500mb is forecasted to be in the mid -40s which is an incredible temperature gradient between the surface and 500mb for heavy wintry showers!. It seems the 500mb temperature is a big factor with the snow showers over the coming days instead of the 850mb temperatures which we tend to rely on more with Pm westerlies as the air at 850mb is only -4C over the coming days which is much lower than we usually see from these set ups. As that cold front moves south the wintry showers will quickly move in from behind it and snow will start falling and accumulating to low levels quite widely by the late evening as surface temperatures drop to near freezing. The frequency of these snow showers will increase during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning across many areas ( only exception is the far NE of Scotland ). These showers will be most frequent through the heart of Scotland as highlighted by the MOD risk area on my snowfall graphic. Here I expect 3-6cm quite widely to low levels with 10-15cm falling quite widely above 150m or so , I suspect 20-30cm possible above 300m here. In the LOW severity zone I expect most will see a brief 1-2cm at some point, however where showers merge there could be as much as 5-10cm to low levels I suspect.
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We will have a easterly across many parts of the UK by the Christmas weekend which is cold enough to produce snowfall. However a blanket of dry air plaguing the lower troposphere will limit or complete prevent convective from developing which will mean that the easterly will just be a cold wind with status cumulus clouds.