Eastern Scotland WX

P10 and P19 would absolute cake NE Britain on Christmas eve.

Holy Grail of a Christmas snowstorm for central and eastern parts of Scotland on the pub run , rather have it on Christmas eve or boxing day though.

UKV going for a very cold day in the North Wednesday next week with highs well below freezing!

What we need for everyone to cheer up is a fantastic pub run this evening.

Barely have had any snow where i am this winter , only have seen a light covering of snowfall here ( 0.5cm )

Barely have had any snow where i am this winter , only have seen a light covering of snowfall here ( 0.5cm )

In fact ignore what i said for the second most likely scenario, looks to be that the low shots of the NE bringing in N/NW Winds.

i've been looking through the ECM ensemble suite and there are several solutions for day 8: most likely: something similar to ECM operational run but give or take a 150 miles N/S 2nd most likely: A large area of low pressure to the NE which is coming out of scandinavia which would bring a lot of cold but less snowfall least likely: Low is over or to the N of the UK bringing zonal westerlies.

Depending on the scenario. A light slack easterly here with -2C/-3C uppers and some mid level convergence has brought 5-6cm in a few hours. Recently a front was moving from the SW to the NE across the central belt of Scotland , but with strong easterly winds ahead off the front this allowed warmer air from the north sea to mix which resulted in sleet/rain despite having -4/-5C uppers. Other occasions such as Feb 2021 , Feb 2018 the air was so cold (-10C uppers or colder ) that it didn't really matter on the wind strength. Then if the dew points are cold but warmer 2m temperatures ( 2-3C ) it will snow but not stick. Many factors.

Be hard to get snow from the east with -2C uppers , unless if winds are very light and slack. This is mainly due to an onshore breeze bringing the air of the sea which is 9-11C.

We need a stronger Atlantic and lower heights across Scandi edging eastwards and connect up across central Europe.

That's quite something!

those are re-analysis charts , not what the models showed 5-7 days out.

I can only find what ECM mean was showing 8 days out. Looking at this , it's not giving me much hope.

Here are both the ECM and GFS ensemble means from the 12z run at day 10. Initially the you would look at the ECM and screw your face up at the high pressure generally located towards the Netherlands , Belgium and central parts of Europe which does suggest a more southerly flow for the UK which of course brings milder conditions. However GFS looks better as it has a stronger signal for High pressure to be planted over the top of the UK it would suggest Calm , dry and chilly conditions. What's interesting though is that ECM is actually a bit more amplified than GFS which would suggest that heights to the north of the UK are likely being favoured in a higher percentage of ensemble members compared to GFS. Very interesting 3-6 days of model watching coming up!

UKMO performance on paper is often quite poor beyond day 5.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't GEM not pick up on the 2018 BFTE before all the other models?

Seen time over and over that models would be in " decent " agreement at day 8-12 but then we start entering the 5-9 day period where the models go into complete disagreement which causes all sort of headaches.

Very interesting stuff here...

I genuinely want a 1962-1963 winter but its gonna take a miracle for it to happen.

Them charts are from 4 days ago. They update tomorrow i think.

GFS 12z is a nice cold run but crap for snow for the central belt of Scotland.

this afternoon was abysmal here , lots of rain and at times a few wet snow flakes trying to mix in here and there and combine that with the strong wind. Looks like the Ochil hills have a covering of snow on them above 300-350m asl , although i think the snow line was lower than this further to the west and south. Snow watch which i did was probably a bit to aggressive in terms of the snow depths.

Here is my snowfall outlook for tomorrow: Main points: > Disruptive and heavy snow likely above 250m with 5-10cm likely. > warmer air will undercut the colder air across Eastern counties , reducing snowfall chances to below 250m. > 1-3cm could accumulate to below 100m in a few places. > 15cm+ expected over 400m.

that didn't really age well...