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Andy H

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Posts posted by Andy H

    South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 4th 2012>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Lovely covering of snow here in North Stevenage. My daughters' school is opening later at 11am so no rush this morning. I have to be at Bayford near Hertford for 11:30am though, so going to be a tight call.

    Hope everyone has a lovely day and enjoys the snow. I will try and take some pics later on.

    Somebody on my facebook just said, taken them 2hours to get from Hertford to Stevenage!!!

    Model Output Discussion 26/11/2012 18Z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I honestly dont know what all the fuss is about. Maybe some on here were expecting a flow of deepest siberian air for a week, but the ops never had that anywhere but in FI. The mean charts continue to show a flow predominantly from the north and east dominated by blocking to our NW. This isnt a change - it is consistency. The trough over the UK is modelled now a little further north on the means than was the case, probably the result of the low pressure zipping through in the early part of next week, but GP flagged up days and days ago that this energy had to go somewhere and SE was his call. Voila - SE it is. More consistency.

    The MetO never updated to "snowmageddon" at any stage in their outlook, and the only alteration in the short term prognosis has been the 24 - 48 return to nearn normal temps that the low next week MIGHT bring. Note the word MIGHT because they have repeated over and over that there is considerable uncertainty about the track of that low, and experience suggests that when blocking and energy come toe to toe the models have a poor record at getting the track right. Living in the SW I have seen constant examples of low pressure systems in the past have their track altered by 50 miles or more even at 24h range.

    For those interested in real model forecasting go up a few posts and look at GP's mean charts - I wont bother to post them again and add to unnecessary clutter.

    Prognosis - cold. Not siberian cold, but cold. Snow chance? Certainly present. No embedded cold yet so for this week high ground only. As cold becomes more embedded over time snow chances increase for all parts with a flow from the north east bringing wintry showers, and possible attacks from the SW bringing frontal battleground events. This was how I saw the forecast last week, and it hasnt changed a jot.

    Now that is a good post! Some of the posts on here are unbelievable, but this post gives a balanced view of what is happening over the next few days.

    Model Output Discussion: 12Z (20/11/12) And On...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    X2 reasons-

    Cold surface air fed into the system from the North-

    Evaporational Cooling in the heavy PPN bands over south wales etc-

    THe uppers were probably -2 IIRC so it was borderline but good enough....

    S

    I would imagine this was borderline? And could quite easily of been rain? Sorry just trying to get my head around why people are so worried about will it or will it not snow next week? When at the end of the day, it's going to be cold, and from what I can work out its not a couple of days cold shot! So the longer the cold lasts, the chances of snow increase?

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