Liam Burge

Tomorrow's event is definitely a cause for focus. Looks like a lot of small convective cells are going to be popping up in the SW and heading NEwards, Not sure if there will be any thunder or lightning associated with these but definitely a risk for isolated flooding if cells track over the same areas.

Don't get too excited haha. One good thing is that the Met hasn't issued a yellow thunderstorm warning yet so we're still in for a chance!

Accuweather is going for an interesting take on this winter. However, they do go on to say that fewer snowy days can be expected in cities such as Dublin and Edinburgh, and temperatures for the whole of winter will be near normal, with cold snaps possible. The most interesting read to me, at least, is "“There can be stretches of mild weather with near-normal temperatures," Roys said. "However, an outbreak of colder weather can settle across the region for a period of two to three weeks.". reference - https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417

According to that everywhere in the world is gonna have quite the warm winter, take these charts with a grain of salt (or sand, cause this shows beach temperatures)

Looks like development has started further west that initially expected. Once again, the best place to be is outside the Met warning zone!

Now this looks very interesting. Is this the first ever TORRO tornado watch issued for us? I've never seen one before.

There goes my chance of a storm then!

Come on Met.. Don't tease me like that it's not fair 3d4d35f2de6388ac213a6a4367db4afb.mp4

Estofex is saying a potential tornado outbreak scenario is possible over Ireland and the South coasts of England. They've issued a level 2 and their wording is 'The assessment of the main hazard (straight-line winds or tornadoes) depends on the mesoscale structure of the rainbands and needs to be left to the nowcasting time frame. In case mesoscale vortices develop, the expected very low cloud bases (just a few hundred meters above sea level) could even support an outbreak of several tornadoes.'

Well this has been quite a show. Quite a few rumbles of thunder were heard along with some heavy rainfall that is still ongoing as we speak. Apparently this rain is meant to be sticking around for another hour or so. Our roads were already flooded when we drove through them about 10 minutes ago, so going to be interesting to see how much more rain we will receive from this storm.

Hey is there a website for this outlook? Like what does the green/yellow/orange/red mean and what are the risks associated with each category?

Looks like a very interesting set up for us down here in the south west!

Looks like the risk has shifted a bit more southwards but I am not quite sure currently. Looking at this MetO run I am just shocked. Those types of cells training over the same areas one after another would cause locally very high rainfall totals, which is what I'm sure Dan was alluding to in his forecast with the '100mm possible'.

MetO has our area clearing up between 12pm and 2pm before some monster storms look like they develop and come right over our area! Don't lose your hope yet.

Tomorrow is a much better chance for thunderstorms across much of England and Wales. Today is just an appetiser for the main course tomorrow. That said, the day is still young and its not even 12 yet.

Will you chase tomorrow? Also, if possible, where do you think the highest risk is for tomorrow?

The yellow thunderstorm warning for tomorrow was just updated to increase the likelihood from 'Very low' to 'Low'.

Had a bit of rain already today and not expecting to see much else, however I do believe around the Exeter area is the sweet spot for storms today. Tomorrow is a more widespread risk for storms though.

Yellow warning now in effect for Wednesday as well.

Imagine being a storm lover and living in Coldstream right now, haha.

Thunderstorm warning for you and you and you!

A 4 day amber warning has now been issued for the extreme heat that is coming up. Is this the longest warning that the Met has ever issued?

Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but the Heat-Health alert has been upgraded to a level 3.

Looks like I am in a potentially good spot for storms later on today. I'll definitely be sending videos if I do manage to get a storm.

Wow. I am not quite sure how to describe this weather I am feeling right now. Feels like when a thunderstorm is right overhead. Large blobs of rain and the humidity is like nothing I've felt before. Every now and then the temperature drops suddenly and then rises again. Not quite sure what is happening right now.