Liam Burge

Yep. Has been a very fun week or so watching these models, not without some frights though! If this mega low were to happen then we'd certainly see some good snowfall accumulations in certain spots.

It would be on the upper bounds on what is theoretically feasible, however extremely unlikely and would certainly break records if it deepens like the models are showing it.

I will quote something I said in PMs earlier: "If the storm were to happen like the GFS models it, then it would mean that the 'storm' is deepening by 5mb every single hour (as it dropped 20mb in 4 hours). I would argue that something like this, in the environment that it's being shown to form in is impossible. Not even in the most perfect of conditions has there ever been a system that has deepened 20mb in 4 hours, at least not that I can find." However, saying that I am not quite sure how rapid the deepening of the low is on the ECM as I haven't checked out the model run (just woke up). However, I would say it isn't feasible given the environment and wind shear that is present.

Not sure. This output has seemed weird to me since the start when ECM showed it a few days ago. I feel like the models are just throwing every single possible solution at us because they have no idea on how strong or where the low pressure system will be. We'll have to wait for it to start forming to see where it goes and how the models resolve it. Until then, it looks like we'll be seeing a plunge into some pretty cold and potentially wintery days so we have this to look forward too. Also, on an unrelated note, I have noticed that the MetO changed their wording for the South west outlook for 3 days time. Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Staying mainly dry with much brighter skies than on previous days and some sunshine for most. Isolated showers, these turning wintry by Thursday. Turning much colder with widespread overnight frosts.

I feel like the GFS is being overly bullish about how alive it wants the Atlantic to be out in FI. We'll have to see though.

GFS 12z (Left) GFS 18z (Right) for my location shows a further swing towards colder conditions for a longer period of time. Less solutions seem to be going for that low spinning up milder air, although there are still a few that develop this low. We will have to wait and see how the models develop this and if it could even potentially become favourable for us in terms of a snow storm.

Look at that mean!! Consistently under -5c up until the end of the run where the majority of ensembles are still under that -5c.

If I am wrong, then we are going to be watching something completely unprecedented.

I'm not discounting it, however I do believe that the models are overdoing the strength of this system. Like someone earlier posted that it deepens 20mb in 4 hours, which is just unprecedented deepening even in the most favourable conditions on the planet, and not some Atlantic ocean that is just a bit warmer than average. We just need to monitor this system and see where it tracks in the next outlooks, and I am 100% expecting the low to be weaker on runs going forward.

Who needs movies when you have this type of setup at Christmas and the Netweather forums?

I never said he didn't have an opinion. Just very confusing on where people stand when they keep changing their mind every single model run

Make your mind up haha, Yesterday you were saying ecm, then this morning you were saying nope and now you're going back to ecm again all because of one run?

Don't know how they can whisper 'cold or very cold' and 'rain' in the same sentence

It will likely continue to be cold with further showers for much of the UK, which will fall as sleet and snow across the north leading to some accumulations of snow across higher ground, showers falling as rain or sleet more likely in parts of the south. Away from coasts there will likely be a good deal of fine and dry weather with sunny spells at times in the south, but with some sharp overnight frosts expected. There is a small chance that some less cold weather and rain could push up into the extreme south later on in the forecast period. On balance, however temperatures remaining cold or very cold everywhere in the UK throughout.

More than the 12z ECM!

ECM just wanted every to have a mild heart attack for a couple hours... bit of a delayed April Fools prank I think. Anyway, beautiful set of 00zs and some good conditions for snow for most of the country! Can't wait to see what 'fun' (or horror) we'll be put through today!!

This is at 300h

100% live reaction of me watching GFS roll out:

Me thinks the GFS has drunk one too many tonight! This is such a beautiful setup and would prolong the cold air. What's also interesting is it keeps on getting colder and colder! You can see the -10c start to approach now. Although this is in FAAAR FI what's the fun in not getting excited??

Gonna need someone to calm me down in a minute!! This is all so exciting!

I don't think we were ever out of the game, just ECM having a hissy fit

Oh GFS tree oh GFS tree how you shine so brightly

I know I am not very experienced with models/weather/how everything pans out, but the current OP runs seem a bit unrealistic to me. Wasn't the atlantic practically dead like a day or two ago? And now the OP runs want to blow up a low and get it to almost hurricane strength? Just seems unrealistic to me and we will need to wait and see how this is resolved. I am both excited and nervous right now; the ECM was an outlier, however other models are starting to go along with this trend of creating a hurricane out of practically thin air and just bombarding the UK with it. Not sure if this is a fake signal and the models are just overdoing it, or it's something we legitimately need to be concerned above from a view of both the cold and potentially damaging wind if these model runs were to be believed. Without a doubt we are currently in one of the best positions starting winter that we have been in the past decade, and I get people's upset when they see the OP run just fall apart in front of their eyes, however it is still multiple days out and anything could change in that time, for better or for worse. Reading through posts before, it seems like the models always do something like this when a cold spell is due? Guess they just want to keep us on our tippy toes right until the end!! Anyway, sorry for this long and ranty post but I just wanted to get my feelings out there, and I'm hoping for the best and expecting even better! Happy Holidays everyone, and enjoy your weekend!

Wouldn't really say that was a 'trend' more than just general model to model wobble.

What do you mean by 'the trend is not our friend right now'?