Liam Burge

Just went out and bought a flask so my internal organs don't pack up over the next few days! Probably just cursed the cold and now it'll be mild.

Right now I do believe the low will either just clip the south and give people south of the M4 a real dumping or just completely miss the UK altogether and keep us in the cold air. I really don't buy a solution of us being put back into warm air.

What this shows is that the trend has weakened for a more intense area of low pressure, before most of the models were getting into the mid-high cat1 and some were even getting into the cat2, however most are now staying at around a low-end cat1 to a high-end tropical storm. We can probably expect this to weaken further, as the new NOAA update came out which highlighted two things: A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day or two. By Thursday night or early Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system. Take into account this was posted at 8:30pm EST yesterday, which would then suggest that the system really doesn't have all that long to strengthen before it hits cooler waters and interacts with the trough, this is why we are seeing the models revert on how strong the system can be.

What do you mean 'remains hope for cold lovers'? We're going to see a spell of quite cold weather for 7 days which is pretty much nailed on at this point, just need to figure out what the lows in the atlantic are doing before going beyond that.

The NOAA outlook for the to-be or not-to-be tropical storm suggests that it will only have essential 1 or 2 days to strengthen before it hits cooler waters and begins to weaken. Quote: "By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system." What is also interesting to note is that they say "subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days." which would really only give this system about a day or so of strengthening. This means that the models are most likely overdoing how strong this low will be and we can expect downgrades in the intensity of the low in the coming model runs. EDIT: On the GFS run you can see that the low is still rapidly strengthening all the way out to Sunday before it begins to weaken. However, it will be over cooler waters by Friday.

I know this isn't a model output but this is a very informative video by the met, posting it here as I'm sure some of the less experienced people can benefit from this.

Latest MetO outlook roughly describes what the GFS model is showing: Cold weather is expected to continue through at least Sunday and into the beginning of next week, particularly in the north. Wintry showers will mainly affect coastal regions, with snow most likely over higher ground but perhaps falling to lower levels at times. By contrast, inland areas should see more in the way of fine and dry weather, with widespread frosts locally severe at times. While timing is uncertain for now, areas of cloud, rain and stronger winds are increasingly likely to progress into southwestern areas at times, with potential for significant snowfall along the leading edge of such systems. Temperatures remaining cold to very cold, with a chance of returning closer to normal across the south later into the period. This is about as much ramp as you can get from the Met this early on... potential for significant snowfall along the leading edge

Not trying to ramp or anything, but judging by the outputs we're currently seeing a national emergency will have to be put into affect for the upcoming cold spell. 'Central Government will declare a Level 4 alert in the event of severe or prolonged cold weather affecting sectors other than health.' This is most definitely going to be quite a prolonged and severe spell of cold weather, with no end in sight on the models currently.

Good morning to the 30 people that just hopped onto the forums! I love the little feature showing you how many people are viewing the thread. Jumped from 70 to 100 in like 5 seconds, guess everyones alarm is set for 7am for the ECM run!

Yep! Looks like we've finally hit the jackpot after 10 years of buying tickets!

That's still in FI right now imo, so anything can change

You're not taking precip charts as gospel this many days out are you???

Feel like that's due to the models bias of wanting the atlantic to win. Could be wrong in that assumption though.

This is what each region is forecast.

Oh my god we must be on the same wave length. I was literally just about to post that haha

Is it just me or has the ECM OP been performing terribly recently?

Well, model watching is definitely going to be interesting over the next few days!

All hurricane shenanigans aside, the GFS mean for my area is actually quite significantly below average and is even colder than the 6z.

Why have 1 hurricane when you can have 3?

Yep. I will stop talking about this low now, sorry to clog up the forums.

Okay. Let's take this scale for example, which shows that a Cat3 hurricane (which is classified as a major hurricane) should have a pressure of 946-960mb (which is the same in hpa). At 5pm on Tuesday the 6th, Icon has the low pressure system at around 995hpa. Moving on to Wednesday the 7th at midnight (7 hours after the previous image, the storm has already dropped 23mb, which is around 3mb/hr. I don't think any storm has ever sustained this level of deepening for this long. This would already put the storm at a category 2 according to the chart I've posted. This would also suggest a case of extreme bombogenesis, Bombogenesis by definition is: 'occurs when a midlatitude cyclone rapidly intensifies, dropping at least 24 millibars over 24 hours. A millibar measures atmospheric pressure.'. This specific icon run is showing a 24mb drop in just 7 hours. Let's take one of our well known storms, Storm Doris. This storm dropped 30mb in 24 hours. Are you seeing just how unrealistic and unfeasible this is now? If this still isn't enough proof that Icon is completely off the rocker, this is the system exactly a day later,Thursday 8th at midnight. This is showing a further drop of 9mb in another 24 hours. Although this isn't rapid deepening at all, this would put it into the high-end cat2 territory, and approaching cat3 strength, which has a pressure of 960 or less. So, this particular run shows it strengthening from less than a tropical storm to a high-end cat2, low-end cat3 system in just 2 and a bit days. windy.com doesn't go past this timeframe, but Icon is still showing this system dropping in pressure even further, to around 950mb. If we take the Icon 950mb as 100% real, this would mean the storm would be a high-end Category 3 in just 3 days. The numbers and pressure gradient is so tight I theoretically can't see if it strengthens any more than this, but it really does look like it strengths to even lower than this 950mb threshold, which would put it in a category 4 strength. As you can see here, the system is showing 965 with multiple numbers behind this, which would suggest probably another 15-20mb drop behind this. So yes, this is practically impossible. It's literally not possible for a system in this environment to rapidly strengthen from nothing to a category 4 hurricane in just 5 days.

Feel that's a dig at me and other members of the forum that are using logic to show that the low deepening that fast is essentially impossible.

There are people a lot more experienced than me on this forum, and they would be able to give you a much better answer than I possibly will. But, look at it this way: We are a small island with influence from pretty much all around us, that is why our weather is so changeable and unpredictable. In real life, this would be the equivalent of trying to predict how many sweets are in a jar at the fair. You have a rough idea, however you do not know 100% what will happen, and therefore give different answers to the question, same with models. Now, this becomes infinitely more difficult and unpredictable in winter when there is blocking. I'm going to say that the models have a milder and Atlantic driven bias, as this is what our weather is most of the time. This is why I believe we are seeing those extreme low pressure systems developing on the models, when in fact I highly doubt they will even be a fraction of the intensity of what they are being shown. In real life, this would be the equivalent of trying to find a needle in a haystack, while you're blindfolded and have no arms. Because our weather is influenced by so many different sources, and small changes in the location/strength of a low or high can have massive differences for the weather we experience, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen outside of a few days (and that's why it's called FI after that). If there was one thing you take from this needlessly long post it's this: Normally, models have a rough idea of what will happen in the bigger picture (The cold snap/spell has been modelled consistently for over a week now), however all the finer details that will affect the weather and temperature drastically aren't ironed out yet. This is at the best of times. However, come winter in a blocked setup, it's so much harder to predict what will happen/when it will happen. There are so many factors at play for our small little island. 850hpa temps, position of the high, what the high will do, position of the lows, what they will do will all play a part in how long and cold this spell will be, and also how much snow we get. Hope this answered your question.

Looks like a 50/50 split on what happens after that.. don't know where you're getting this 'no denying the direction of travel' from when it's still 7+ days out.