weather_it_will

No sign of winter in any of the models. Maybe it is still summer? We need to get shot of the high pressure before we can talk about winter. Bring on Winter 1947 is what I say!

GFS always over does deep lows. The wind will be about half as strong as what GFS is showing.

Calm down my reiney deers, it's only a forecast.

-11 sounds good.

12.68°C Please

Monday 10 June—Sunday 23 June Will the weather ever settle down?During the second half of June, we are all likely to see a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, and drier, brighter interludes, as no one particular weather pattern dominates. The north and west of the United Kingdom is perhaps still likely to see the best of any brightness though. It will be cool in the rain but will feel warm in the sun, although on the whole temperatures are likely to remain below average for June http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook .

Cold, Very wet, but not too windy.

This summer will be average at best in terms of warmth. It is clear that our summers are now owned by the energy companies. If there were good summers and mild winters in the UK, the energy companies would be looking for takeover bids. It's not going to happen. Have you ever wondered why the shops are heavily discounting barbecue equipment in May? It's because they know it's going to be a rubbish summer.

If you miss out the heat part, you might be right.

Winter was relatively mild. The spring however has been freezing cold, and the reason my gas bill has gone up £300 after winter ended!

Met Office announce this spring is the coldest for 50 years. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-the-coldest-spring-for-50-years-with-average-temperature-of-just-6c-8637907.html What next? Coldest summer? All I know is...... It's the most expensive gas bill I have had in 50 years!

Which is why you can't rely on the Meto forecast. They misunderstood what the models were showing. Some of us got it right though.

Unlike some members, I have posted what the models are showing. Also backed up by the Meto.

The first week of June is looking cloudy, wet and unsettled, particularly in southern UK.

Not exactly building, when it has retracted the ridge completely compared to the 12z

I only call it warm if I don't need a coat, but I have needed a coat since the 8th May. In my house I am wearing a pure wool jumper. It is clearly not what I call warm here. I would call it warm if I can go out wearing a short sleeved shirt without a coat and feel comfortably warm. There is nothing on the charts I call warm.

Nothing resembling summer in the reliable T144 time frame on the GFS or UKMO. In FI it looks like a repeat pattern with any high pressure being squeezed out the way by the deep lows. This pattern is not going away anytime soon. I can't see us getting anywhere near the glorious Bank Holiday Monday weather of 6th May which continued into 7th May and did reach a genuine 20°C here. Just like previous summers, people only remember April and May as being the best weather of the year, and this one looks no different so far. I know summer has not started yet, so still plenty of time until the end of August when summer ends.

No summer for us on the ECM in FI

Central areas seem particularly wet on the GEFS ensembles compared to other areas. I can't see anything settled for June so far. It just looks milder and wetter, and the control and GFS OP run at the end do not look good to say the least.

UKMO is on its own this morning at T144 with the missing deep low.

Keep dreaming.

It's funny how people dismiss the GFS because it is showing cold unsettled weather. If this was winter, people would be saying how the GFS has this nailed, and champagne at the ready. Far too many people jumping on the warm and sunny is the only correct solution.

GFS wants to bring in a ridge of high pressure once again, but has it lost the plot with no support as we have seen before recently. The ridge eventually fades away though, returning things to normal. The GFS ridge goes for an encore later on in June, but will it stick?

It is a complete outlier though, with virtually zero support

Ensemble mean shows nothing higher than 16°C for a few western areas early this coming week, and then settling down to 12-14°C until the end of May. There is nothing that suggests getting anywhere near 20°C unless you stay indoors with the central heating turned up. Ian Ferguson on Twitter says "no current signal for prolonged settled spell in next 2 weeks"