weather_it_will

GFS has completely backed off its crazy outlook. GFS 00z GFS 06z Now more in line with the ECM GFS 06Z from yesterday GFS06z today ECM

I want something warmer, but there is no support for it. Also I do not look at the METO outlook, and therefore have no bias towards what they are thinking. Off topic now, but our summers are getting worse, and this one is probably going to be no exception. I have consistently stuck with my cool and wet outlook for some time, because that is the way I have read the models.

GFS has poor verification stats compared to ECM. GFS has no support from UKMO or the ECM.

GFS wants to play a game of opposites against the ECM. GFS goes for heat, and ECM goes for cold. Will opposites finally attract?

A cool looking low pressure dominated ECM

What warm and dry spell? GFS shows rain for most of us all next week. I can't see any sign of a warm and dry spell. Snow and 0°C top temperature for Scandinavia and not much better for us in FI near the end of May. Looks like winter until you check the date.

GFS continues the trend of of pushing any chance warm and settled weather out the way. The ensembles have been hinting at this beyond the reliable time for a couple of runs at least, with low pressure continuing to push in from the north. If you look at the ensembles mean, it is clear the temperatures flatten out beyond day 8. There is some signs of a slight warm up near the end of May for London and the south east. For most of the UK outside of the SE, the outlook does not look that great, with at best average temperatures. Maybe the odd warmer day here and there, but does not look very dry!

GFS is not matching the end of the 00z ECM as it's bringing in low pressure from the Arctic, where the ECM was bring in a high with more settled conditions. Staying cool and wet possibly for a long while yet? Certainly no agreement beyond the upcoming weekend.

The 15 day ensemble forecast of cumulated rainfall for London continues to show an upward trend for more rain.

Back to the models, and GFS shows nothing but low pressure all the way to FI. UKMO is the same at day 6. ECM also same story.

ECM & GFS in agreement out to day 7 on that low sliding south down the western flank of mainland UK. But GFS has this much earlier. And the ECM is further west.

Low pressure will be dominating our weather for a long time to come. Can't see any long term warmth or settled weather until at least June. Certainly nothing as warm as Bank Holiday Monday which could be the highlight of the year. For all those people moaning about the dry weather, there is plenty of rain on the way!

Looks like a big cool down is on the way. rain is also on it's way.

10 days away is too far away to be reliable.

What you really mean is that some people are posting what you want to hear, which is not necessarily what everyone else wants to hear!I get tired of the people in the model thread saying how warm it is going to feel in pleasant sunshine, and how the daisy's will be springing up,and the cows will be singing, as it has nothing whatsoever to do with weather models, but is just patronising rubbish.There is no getting away from biased posts, be it hot or cold.

Meto temperatures for my area are currently 2°C for Friday night, so I can imagine it could well be below zero by Saturday morning.The wind is also changing from NW to NE, so it will be feeling cold.

It looks like a cool down is imminent. The models do not seem to indicate any real warm up until end of first week in May, but even that is not guaranteed. If previous years are to go by, April has been the best month for warmth and dry weather, so it's not looking good for the remainder of the year.

Congratulations, you posted a chart with some numbers on it. Very good. Can you apply some theory to this also? The latest 18z GFS confirms a max of 16°C with a hint of 18°C possibly in central London areas.

I can't see anywhere in the UK reaching 21°C next week based on on the ECM & GFS 12z. In reality 16-18°C is probably more likely at best on Wednesday, with the highest temperatures in the smog of London.

When you zoom out on the ECM, you can clearly see how grim it looks for northern Europe at the end of next week.

GFS 12z was a mild outlier, so later next week it will cool down, and will not be as mild as the operational 12z is showing. Average temps around 8°C, so it will not be feeling very warm. ECM also shows the cooling down later next week.

ECM is a cracker for cold weather fans, and is supported by other models. Lock up your barbecues till October at this rate. No sign of any settled warm weather.

The easterly wind threat has not gone completely.

The only warmer day was sunday. It's still not warm enough for me to celebrate spring, and apart from a few days here and there, the outlook is not good for warm weather. Maybe in June it will improve?

ECM 12z ends with cooler weather which is not what most people hoping for. A NW wind with top temps of 4-8°C is not what most were hoping for near the end of April. (forum bug means can't post charts)