ECM is a zonal horror story for anyone in Birmingham and southwards. Nothing in the way of snow on offer in the more reliable time frame.
GFS has the low further south which may result in wintry showers on the hills very briefly on the back edge of the evening rain.
Very little to get excited about for most of us.
What the models show and what we actually get are usually totally different.
Too many Meto weather warnings materialize into nothing as it is already.
Often these warnings just affect small communities, while most of us wonder why the need for a warning when nothing happened.
Most of us do not live in the North West, so is of no real interest.
GFS12z in the reliable time frame upto 7-days showing temps 4 to 12C Midlands southwards.
Snow is very unlikely.
Because it's a rare event for most of England. Almost like hot sunny weather.
We get wind and rain all year, so it's of no interest to me, unless it's a hurricane that will blow my house down!
I can't see any major pattern change from what we have now up to 19th January.
GEFS ensembles mainly showing a westerly influence.
Anyone thinking SSW will change things is more likely straw clutching at this stage, as same SSW fanatics were disappointed last winter.
The tracking of the low at 72HRS is far from nailed.The GEFS ensembles showing it centred anywhere from Scotland to Bristol.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=72&code=3&mode=0&carte=
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=72&code=14&mode=0&carte=