weather_it_will
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Probably have to do it for Health and Safety reasons. Ian Fergie said recently when asked about Weather Warnings that if it helps one person then it has served it's purpose. One person may have been prevented from a broken leg after not slipping on last nights snowflake that fell at 600m asl.
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Very heavy wet sleet and snow here now, but has zero chance of settling as the ground is too wet.
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It's game over for tonight apart from the lucky few on high ground. Temperatures and Dewpoints rising all the time as the rain pushes in. The weather predictions were all about 6 to 12 hours out.
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Just replayed that rain over NW Wales on the radar, and it has not really moved from that spot all afternoon. That area between Dublin and Bangor over the Irish Sea seems to be the pivot point for the low pressure weather system.
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Any snow on the radar has moved North West over Stoke. Everywhere else just rain/sleet now as the dewpoints have risen.
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Looking at the V6 paid radar, the back edge is all sleet or rain after the frontal snow. Let's hope that is not it for the night.
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It's from the south west
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Metoffice Forecast here has changed to heavy snow at 9pm. Maybe from that heavy 2nd band of rain that is near Glastonbury on the radar?
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No streetlamps here either. I use a Cree LED torch with a beam focus.
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Light snow just started here.
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I would expect rain/sleet. If you get snow it's a bonus.
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Current radar would suggest anywhere West of the M5 get sleet/snow. East of the M5 get rain, if the band stays on current track.
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The further North and West of Birmingham you are the better for this event. Anyone else should prepare for disappointment, but I hope to be proved wrong.
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I think it will just be rain tonight. If we get snow it will be a bonus.
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Some angry GFS viewers on the loose perhaps.
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Same here. It looks very marginal at best. Not good.
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I don't think the new GFS is very accurate, as when it was the Parallel run it always showed the coldest/snowfests that never happened. The Metoffice do not use GFS. I do hope there will be some snow overnight Tuesday, but doubt it will be a snowfest. Maybe a couple of centimeters.
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Metoffice showing mostly sleet at best for Birmingham Airport as an example for Tues night/Wednesday
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Any snow event on GFS has moved further north and west. It's a downgrade for most of us.
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When the new GFS was the Parallel run it always showed the coldest snowiest charts, but none of that ever became reality. I don't think we can trust the raw output of the current GFS. -
I see the Meto forecasts snow for Tues/Weds, but don't hold your breath,as their website forecasts change every 15 minutes. For about 30 minutes the Metoffice showed heavy snow for today in my area on Friday afternoon, but was soon taken down. The website is automated until an actual real person updates it nearer to the event.
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Any snow event looks marginal this week on the models. A single chart for accumulation is not proof that it will snow. It could be rain or sleet.
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When the proper cold air arrives on Sunday, the models may have a better grip on what is happening. At present the models are chopping and changing too much to be worth analyzing in detail. What we do know is that it will be cold for the next 5 days at least.
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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards
weather_it_will replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Due to popular demand, the easterly is back for a brief special guest appearance on 06z GFS -
Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards
weather_it_will replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Atlantic block is much better on this run, allowing the easterly to last longer across more areas of the UK 12z 18z
