Battleground Snow

These charts from the NOAA are just blends from the the gem, gfs and ecm ensemble suits, if you click the forecast discussion for each day, it tells you the ratio they have used and the confidence they have in the forecast accuracy. Today's "The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation" I think I vaguely remember reading that the chief forecaster may sometimes manually adjust the charts when confidence is low. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4995489

These charts from the NOAA are just blends from the the gem, gfs and ecm ensemble suits, if you click the forecast discussion for each day, it tells you the ratio they have used and the confidence they have in the forecast accuracy. Today's "The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model solutions and forecast temperature and precipitation" I think I vaguely remember reading that the chief forecaster may sometimes manually adjust the charts when confidence is low.

Plus that shard of vortex in Canada will stop the high migrating west More chance of it drifting north in time, which creates more battleground situations.

You've missed the -11 near Southend In all seriousness though -12/-13 isn't out of the question with decent precipitation for favoured spots once it gets down to t24

Yeh by 204, it looks more robust into Greenland after maybe a little wobble on the 06z mean

Who's ready for the ecm?

It will, just be a couple of days after the gem. Gfs playing catch up again I think

Slightly disagree Mike, as I think our high will get sucked north faster due to the better Arctic high, the 06z gfs was an example of having left over heights too near us.

Ukmo 144 nice. Taking the shorter route to deep cold like the icon I think. 168 will be fun

Stronger Arctic high makes it better, should allow for easier link up with the high to our north.

Shortwave sent packing by 66, I love an early upgrade, I wonder if we can get some -12s across the UK on the 12z runs

Control 06z, deep cold over south east! @BLAST FROM THE PAST Dam Fred beat me

Control heading for a less stressful option?

@Scott Ingham day is inevitable! Just a quick one on the early timeframe, OP was nearer the top of the pack regarding the initial cold pool Others models have a more favourable orientation too.

192 and 216

High is still shifting north run on run. ECM 12z v 00z

Yeh hopefully an outlier, but it will probably still get there at day 12. Ukmo at 168 looks good too

@Scott Ingham day is also coming earlier by the looks of things, Simply stunning chart, can't believe we are getting further upgrades this morning!

I think the gem wants to serve @Mike Pooles main course early 162 Edit: gfs heading the same way, the cold pool/ lower heights in Europe are supporting the high better, allowing more latitude

Ukmo 120, looks very cold, note the dam heights are falling each run in the south, we are edging close to more accumulations

Steady as we go for the icon 00z run Some -10 air with streamers / showers, next week, with the main course setting up nicely at 180, the Arctic profile looks superb

Just running thru the ensembles at 126 and about 8-10 of them are picking up much lower dam heights over the south, (P23) being the lowest. I wouldn't bank on it being a mainly dry easterly just yet with the incremental upgrades we seem to be getting on each suite. I've attached a few examples

You'll get your answer pretty soon Mike, as we seem to have pretty good cross model agreement at 144 for once!

That will come, by 120. @Jason M there have been examples of decent falls even under higher pressure,. Somebody posted the examples the other day of this, but I forgot who it was

Ukmo 96! Looking good with a decent push north of the high