Battleground Snow

Wouldn't like to speculate where the ukmo goes next at 168, but heights not as robust into Greenland as the other 2 models

Scotland would be getting buried on this run from the gem

As long as the cold air is over us if they do eventually move east it's okay. The trend has definitely swung back to a more robust Greenland/ Iceland block this morning, Really hope we can get a ecm to show this later too

Looks okay to me mate, high wire balancing act again though. Gem with the cross polar flow.

Agreed, the gem is pretty similar to gfs also Edit, actually gem quite different over Pacific side

Gfs v ukmo at 144, 168 are the key frames next.

Yeh, mean looks okay still

Ukmo absolutely solid with that cold pool Monday 18z run @sheikhy

Control doesn't have a whiff of the shortwave development, so I imagine it will look close to the UKMO by 168 and potentially get the northernly in quicker

That arctic high could push the entire vortex south here Special synoptics

The 15th singularity cannot be stopped! Cold slowly heading south and removing Iberian heights

Shortwave Got squeezed out west of Greenland while trying to form at 126, great stuff, was a close call though

Latest gfs is middle ground between the ukmo and ecm in regards to the cold pool.

It still seems out of sync at just 48 hours tbh, It's edged towards the ukmo again, but still a sizable difference just 2 days away. One has to back down next run surely? @sheikhy

Would be great if that low near the Azores could move south east, the gem did it eventually but it took its sweet time

Pretty much the same as 06z, tiny differences.

think you've got the 0z attached there for the gem mike

Gfs got a stupid small shortwave in the mix again, although I don't know how much it will affect the run, gem and ukmo don't have it

Ukmo keeps that cold pool north at 48 hours and it's 120 chart looks great

The 06z does seem to only slightly move from the 00z in general I find. I expect a bigger shift on the 12z. This will do for now on the mean

1pm behind the paywalls 2pm on meteociel

Do you think that because the EPS are run at the same high resolution as the OP, that it sometimes times causes them all to see the wrong solution early on in the run? It always seems like the mean and the op are very close up to around 144, where as the gfs can be quite different to it's mean at that point. It's quite amazing the difference in the cold pool distribution at 72 hours compared to the UKMO, but then again I guess we only notice it because it's over the UK, when it's a micro detail globally

Look how widespread -12s are, not out of the question we get to -13/-14 by then, north sea snow machine would be firing right up

Ukmo 168, All good this morning, ecm to cap it all off now.

Probably further upgrades to come too, Going to be some quick changes to the TV forecasts for Monday I imagine