Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Battleground Snow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,209

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Battleground Snow

  1. Battleground Snow
    I'll have to concede to you on the deviation, if you're pulling out scientific formulas Agree with others about the latest gfs, the difference is already stark around Greenland
  2. Battleground Snow
    I believe those charts put the top and bottom 10% of runs outside of the shaded area, but not sure if the exact % number. If it was 3 times the deviation of the mean wouldn't the op need to show -15 to be an outlier under that definition?
  3. Battleground Snow
    I wish this and that TWO graph wernt available, as they can be confusing for newer members. They don't show all the members. They show % spreads Use the wetter charts or ecmwf own website to see all the members. You can see it's not an outlier. To be clear an outlier is a member that totally diverges from all of the other members at that particular point in time. Eg, the turquoise member 6 on the 23rd of January on this chart
  4. Battleground Snow
    Would have loved to see day 11, to see if we get height rises towards Scandinavia after that energy heads south east
  5. Battleground Snow
    Yeh definitely, unstable arctic air is widespread. 192 maybe amazing if that Atlantic ridge can edge north east
  6. Battleground Snow
    You're comparing different timeframes to me. I'm talking about the initial plunge, circa 84-108
  7. Battleground Snow
    Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...
  8. Battleground Snow
    Excluding the gfs and gem OPs I think everything is still very positive this morning. Gfs Control is bitterly cold at day 11. Gem control is much better too
  9. Battleground Snow
    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine UKMO 0.1° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est et pays limitrophes)
  10. Battleground Snow
    Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168. Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.
  11. Battleground Snow
    Forgot about checking the icon this morning for some reason. So it's icon, jma, ukmo, arpege v gfs and gem in the mid range this morning
  12. Battleground Snow
    Add jma to the positive list too, One thing for sure if we are getting model drama every set.
  13. Battleground Snow
    Needs to see dew points but I imagine it would still be snow away from coastal areas
  14. Battleground Snow
    Sounds cliché, but feels like a big ecm coming up this morning when ukmo differs so much compared to gfs and gem
  15. Battleground Snow
    Can't deny the fact the gem is rubbish long term this morning. Looks nothing like it's 12z run
  16. Battleground Snow
    Perhaps, but I also think it's getting the Greenland profile wrong too. This is the adjustment from its last run early on
  17. Battleground Snow
    You can tell the gfs is still getting the initial Northernly wrong, it adjusted early on, Models like arpege and ukmo remain consistent with the straighter northernly
  18. Battleground Snow
    Lovely Greenland profile on the UKMO at 120 v gfs Edit: 144 ukmo is fantastic!
  19. Battleground Snow
    Yep. The dream is we go from Greenland to disruptive lows, to a Scandinavian high, which then retrogrades back to greenland in Feb. Too much to ask?
  20. Battleground Snow
    I wouldn't say a return to a Westerly regime is inevitable even with the mjo in phase 4, other drivers are working against this I keep thinking about Tamara's comments of taking the extended ensembles forecast with some sceptism.
  21. Battleground Snow
    Gfs looking quite isolated in that envelope to be honest. Jma bringing the really cold northernly at day 5 and the pattern looks set for longevity.
  22. Battleground Snow
    Yeah, if you compare it to gfs at just 102, it's quite a difference, and I think the gfs is playing catch up. 1. It effects how cold and how far south the plunge gets. 2. It encourages more Heights over Greenland which may determine the relative longevity of the pattern, re-enforcement of the high coming out of the states would be helpful too
  23. Battleground Snow
    Subtle differences over Greenland too, Perhaps heading the gem route later on in the run
  24. Battleground Snow
    @sheikhy you can come out now. Icon has upgraded the initial Northernly.
  25. Battleground Snow
    Looked like quite a month of weather
×
×
  • Create New...