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Battleground Snow

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Everything posted by Battleground Snow

  1. Battleground Snow
    Ali1977 06z gem pulling some colder air further south compared to the 00z run Nice to have some closer range charts to micro analyse again
  2. Battleground Snow
    IDO I know you like that chart, but they really are useless in this situation, you can see several members colder than the op for the 8th and 9th.
  3. Battleground Snow
    Thought there would be more of a reaction to that ecm this morning. That's probably as near as a wtf moment you'll get in modern times, with a close range shift. 120 v last night's 132 240 is also primed.
  4. Battleground Snow
    Hello ec46
  5. Battleground Snow
    Not sure what's going on with these mjo plots atm, but every model looks like getting into 8 soon apart ECM BC which seems to be constantly modeling it wrong at day 1. Model uncertainty is very high atm, I'm sitting on the fence on whether or not we get a HLB at some point between mid Feb to mid march. I really hope the strat doesn't mess things up again too.
  6. Battleground Snow
    BarnetBlizzard yep a blizzard, with easternly winds.
  7. Battleground Snow
    Gem looks the best for next Thursday again. There will be further chances after Thursday if we bust on that day though.
  8. Battleground Snow
    Looks like the mjo plots have had a malfunction today, and the ecm hasn't even updated. But generally looks on track to stay away from cod and get to phase 8 in 10 days or so
  9. Battleground Snow
    That's quite an adjustment south with the cold air on the mean, things looking positive for some snow for the south on Thursday
  10. Battleground Snow
    ICE COLD Yep very heavy snow and still more to come after by 168
  11. Battleground Snow
    Yes please ukmo at 168. Snow for all but the extreme south west
  12. Battleground Snow
    Ice Day Yep that's a massive improvement for the south in getting the cold in at an earlier timeframe
  13. Battleground Snow
    Lukesluckybunch Gem should head where we want it to around 192. Decent wedge in and around Greenland Ukmo looks okay at 144, 168 will be more telling when it comes out though.
  14. Battleground Snow
    It was disappointing to see the models step back from a block/wedge to the north this morning, Perhaps the erratic nature and slow progression of the mjo wave is to blame for the uncertainty. The plots still look good but, its taking a long time get into phase 8. Any further delays will not be welcome with the season drawing to a close.
  15. Battleground Snow
    Not a bad ecm at day 9. Finally seeing some mjo effects
  16. Battleground Snow
    I've been away the last couple of days, but watching from afar. Not much has changed though, mid to late February has great potential. Mjo plus other Tele cons Some strange posts complaining about the next 7 days which never had much potential, outside pm shots
  17. Battleground Snow
    Control looking quite wintery. As @feb1991blizzard said earlier I don't think we can expect a high lat block until mid February. Some pm shots would be welcome before that though.
  18. Battleground Snow
    Latest mjo plots.. ECM BC always seems to differ from rest at moment. It wasn't keen at all a few days ago for any decent amplification into 7, make of that what you will As Tamara stated these plots are probably not capturing the correct level of activity over the west Pacific. We should now get at least some days in 7 at decent amplitude. Cfs keen to follow the BOM long term into 8. Does feel like the end of Feb will be perhaps be a prolonged colder spell
  19. Battleground Snow
    Jff but a slider snow event at day 9.
  20. Battleground Snow
    Things looking up this afternoon, Teleconnections wise and the models themselves. Icon shoving the tpv east much earlier on this run
  21. Battleground Snow
    @feb1991blizzard not a bad fit by the control to that composite @feb1991blizzard not a bad fit by the control to that composite
  22. Battleground Snow
    @BarnetBlizzard generally they update the plots around 12:45. A big difference between the ec BC and non BC today. Gfs converging somewhat.
  23. Battleground Snow
    @feb1991blizzard Yep we'll take that after the 00z output
  24. Battleground Snow
    Finally a chart to chase. Very frustrating times at the moment, got to hope for a flip of some kind in the 10-14 period for anything of note.
  25. Battleground Snow
    Gem interesting at 240, probably some pm shots coming in early February, but I'm watching that next wave of high pressure moving across Canada, which may give us a more robust HLB in 2 weeks time.
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